The Macro Picture 🗺️
AAVE's four-month range between $87 and $130 has resolved to the downside. The May bullish reclaim attempt was rejected cleanly at the $100 decision zone, and the $87 macro floor broke on a sustained close in late May. What held as the structural base of the prior consolidation has now flipped into resistance — the failed retest near $90 sealed the level's role reversal, and price has carved a fresh leg of lower highs and lower lows into the $75–$78 zone. RSI is driving into deep oversold below 30, flagging exhaustion in the move but not yet signaling reversal.
The Setup ⚙️
The Rejection: The $100 zone held as the ceiling of the prior range and now sits well above price — the failed reclaim through May removed the bullish case until structure shifts back in favor of buyers.
The Flip: The $87 macro floor has flipped into resistance after a clean break and rejected retest — bulls now need to reclaim this level on a daily close before any reversal scenario becomes valid.
The Continuation: Price is compressing against the $75 immediate reaction zone with momentum still pointing lower — every bounce inside this structure remains a short opportunity into the flipped resistance overhead.
The Roadmap: Primary target sits at $68 — a clean break of $75 unlocks the macro demand pocket where 2025 buyers stepped in. Invalidation: a sustained 1D close back above $87 would invalidate this bearish thesis and reopen the door to a retest of the $100 supply.
AAVE's four-month range between $87 and $130 has resolved to the downside. The May bullish reclaim attempt was rejected cleanly at the $100 decision zone, and the $87 macro floor broke on a sustained close in late May. What held as the structural base of the prior consolidation has now flipped into resistance — the failed retest near $90 sealed the level's role reversal, and price has carved a fresh leg of lower highs and lower lows into the $75–$78 zone. RSI is driving into deep oversold below 30, flagging exhaustion in the move but not yet signaling reversal.
The Setup ⚙️
The Rejection: The $100 zone held as the ceiling of the prior range and now sits well above price — the failed reclaim through May removed the bullish case until structure shifts back in favor of buyers.
The Flip: The $87 macro floor has flipped into resistance after a clean break and rejected retest — bulls now need to reclaim this level on a daily close before any reversal scenario becomes valid.
The Continuation: Price is compressing against the $75 immediate reaction zone with momentum still pointing lower — every bounce inside this structure remains a short opportunity into the flipped resistance overhead.
The Roadmap: Primary target sits at $68 — a clean break of $75 unlocks the macro demand pocket where 2025 buyers stepped in. Invalidation: a sustained 1D close back above $87 would invalidate this bearish thesis and reopen the door to a retest of the $100 supply.
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إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.
📈 Stop guessing your settings — backtest & optimize with QuantPilot
🎁 Free to start
🎁 Free to start
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.