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BABA

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🌎Alibaba's AI Ambitions Gain Momentum: Qwen's Record-Breaking Launch and Strategic Investments

Alibaba is experiencing strong growth, fueled by the impressive success of its AI assistant, Qwen. Just a week after the public beta release, the app has surpassed 10 million downloads, marking the fastest launch of any such tool in history.

This success signals the company's decisive entry into the consumer AI market and strengthens its position as a direct competitor to ChatGPT and other global leaders in generative AI.

Why Qwen is More Than Just a Chatbot

The company positions Qwen as an "intelligent gateway to everyday life."

Unlike many Western subscription-based models, Alibaba is emphasizing a freemium model and deep integration of AI into its ecosystem. Plans include implementing "agent-based AI" features to automate tasks such as food ordering, travel booking, and shopping on platforms like Taobao.

The app is currently available in China, but an international version is expected soon.

Sizable Investments and Financial Results

To support its ambitions, Alibaba is mobilizing significant resources. The previously announced AI investment plan of RMB 380 billion (~$53 billion) over three years demonstrates a scale comparable to that of American IT giants.

These investments are already bearing fruit:

Revenue Growth: In Q1 FY26, revenue from the Cloud Intelligence division grew 26% year-on-year to RMB 33.4 billion, largely driven by strong demand for AI computing power and cloud services.

Explosive Growth in AI Products: Revenue from AI-based products has shown triple-digit growth for the eighth consecutive quarter, demonstrating the active adoption of technology by enterprises in China.

Increasing the profitability of the cloud business, which is under pressure from the high cost of building AI infrastructure, remains a key challenge.

Technological Innovation in the Face of Restrictions

In response to US export restrictions, Alibaba is finding creative ways to improve efficiency. Aegaeon's recently introduced GPU pooling system dramatically reduces dependence on Nvidia chips. During beta testing, this technology reduced the number of GPUs required by 82%—from 1,192 to 213—to support dozens of AI models.

This achievement highlights the company's ability to mitigate the impact of sanctions through software optimization.

Alibaba is one of the few global platforms offering a full stack of AI services. Strategic investments in promising areas such as international expansion and partnerships (for example, upcoming XPeng robotaxis trials using Amap maps in 2026) provide the foundation for long-term growth.

On the downside, the current stock valuation is already overly optimistic, and sustaining accelerated growth requires continued high investment and impeccable strategy execution.

In our view, we are in Wave 4, where after a strong momentum, the stock needs a breather to continue its growth.

In general, we don't see the stock being distributed. Many factors point to a correction to future growth.
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Based on our analysis from a month ago, BABA was in wave 4, with a target of 120-130.

Given the latest stimulus news from China, the probability of reaching that lower target is now low.

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