Yo.
Quick-fire analysis on BNB/USDT, looking across the M15 to H4 timeframes. The market gave us a technical bounce, a relief rally for the amateurs. Don't be fooled. The party is over, and the bears are now in control.
The Setup
Let's recap the recent chaos. After last Friday's mass liquidation event, BNB staged an absurd rally, tapping a new ATH around 1375 within three days. Hope you survived the volatility. That move, however, was pure euphoria, completely detached from the broader market reality.
While BNB was flying, BTC showed extreme weakness, failing to reclaim any meaningful levels. This divergence was a massive red flag. It was inevitable that BNB's gravity-defying move would correct, and correct hard.
My setup is classic, no-nonsense technical analysis: multi-timeframe Fibonacci levels, a hard focus on volume profile, and a tactical eye on order flow. The blue Fib levels are drawn on the H4 chart (macro trend), and the red Fibs are for the M15 chart (micro trend since the Friday low).
What's Happening Now
The chart is screaming "SELL" at a major point of technical confluence. For anyone who can read price action, this is crystal clear.
After a first test yesterday, the critical 0.618 Fibonacci support on the H4 timeframe was decisively broken today, October 17th. This wasn't just any Fib level; it was perfectly aligned with the Point of Control (POC) from the entire last uptrend—the area with the highest traded volume. Losing this level means the bulls have lost their single most important line of defense. The structure is broken.
The Levels That Matter
We've already hit our first target at 1022, which corresponds perfectly to the 1.272 Fibonacci extension from the H4 structure. The playbook from here is simple. We are now watching for a pullback to reload short positions.
- Short Entry Zone: I'm watching for a weak pullback into the 1093 zone. This area represents the '1' point of the H4 Fib retracement and is the ideal spot to the bag. Any bounce to this level that shows signs of exhaustion is a gift.
- Invalidation (Stop Loss): The line in the sand is a clean break and hold above 1125. A move above this level would negate the current bearish market structure and signal that the downtrend is compromised.
- Targets: I’m reaching two price
- The 1.414 Fibonacci extension, which brings us to the $988 area.
- A full leg down to the 1.272 extension on the M15 Fib, targeting the $865 region. This level also aligns with the previous major low, making it a powerful magnet for price.
I'm not betting on hope; I'm trading the evidence. The evidence shows the path of least resistance is down. Let's see how it plays out. As always, don't get rekt.
Quick-fire analysis on BNB/USDT, looking across the M15 to H4 timeframes. The market gave us a technical bounce, a relief rally for the amateurs. Don't be fooled. The party is over, and the bears are now in control.
The Setup
Let's recap the recent chaos. After last Friday's mass liquidation event, BNB staged an absurd rally, tapping a new ATH around 1375 within three days. Hope you survived the volatility. That move, however, was pure euphoria, completely detached from the broader market reality.
While BNB was flying, BTC showed extreme weakness, failing to reclaim any meaningful levels. This divergence was a massive red flag. It was inevitable that BNB's gravity-defying move would correct, and correct hard.
My setup is classic, no-nonsense technical analysis: multi-timeframe Fibonacci levels, a hard focus on volume profile, and a tactical eye on order flow. The blue Fib levels are drawn on the H4 chart (macro trend), and the red Fibs are for the M15 chart (micro trend since the Friday low).
What's Happening Now
The chart is screaming "SELL" at a major point of technical confluence. For anyone who can read price action, this is crystal clear.
After a first test yesterday, the critical 0.618 Fibonacci support on the H4 timeframe was decisively broken today, October 17th. This wasn't just any Fib level; it was perfectly aligned with the Point of Control (POC) from the entire last uptrend—the area with the highest traded volume. Losing this level means the bulls have lost their single most important line of defense. The structure is broken.
The Levels That Matter
We've already hit our first target at 1022, which corresponds perfectly to the 1.272 Fibonacci extension from the H4 structure. The playbook from here is simple. We are now watching for a pullback to reload short positions.
- Short Entry Zone: I'm watching for a weak pullback into the 1093 zone. This area represents the '1' point of the H4 Fib retracement and is the ideal spot to the bag. Any bounce to this level that shows signs of exhaustion is a gift.
- Invalidation (Stop Loss): The line in the sand is a clean break and hold above 1125. A move above this level would negate the current bearish market structure and signal that the downtrend is compromised.
- Targets: I’m reaching two price
- The 1.414 Fibonacci extension, which brings us to the $988 area.
- A full leg down to the 1.272 extension on the M15 Fib, targeting the $865 region. This level also aligns with the previous major low, making it a powerful magnet for price.
I'm not betting on hope; I'm trading the evidence. The evidence shows the path of least resistance is down. Let's see how it plays out. As always, don't get rekt.
ملاحظة
Just as we laid out.The market gave us the pullback today, came up, and perfectly kissed the broken POC at the $1093 level. As expected, it failed to break through; the resistance held to the tick.
If your limit orders were configured like mine, you're in the trade and you should be having fun right now. The short is active, the entry is confirmed.
Now we let the market do the work. First target at $988 is next in line.
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.