Market Structure & Trend
Bitcoin is clearly in a macro downtrend on the daily timeframe.
This is classic bear market retracement → continuation behavior.
Fibonacci & Key Levels
Measured from the swing high to the December low:
Key downside liquidity targets:
That 54,900 area is the real magnet if fear hits.
RSI & Momentum
Fundamental Catalyst – FOMC Risk
This week’s FOMC meeting is a major volatility trigger.
If:
Crypto does not like that environment, and BTC typically reacts fast and hard.
Technicals already point lower — FOMC can be the fuel.
Trade Plan – Short Setup (Primary Bias)
Entry (Sell)
Option 1 – Aggressive
Option 2 – Conservative
Stop Loss
Take Profit Targets
Scale out — don’t be greedy.
Trade Management (Very Important)
Once trade is +3,000 points in profit:
This protects capital while keeping you in for the flush.
Invalidation
This bearish setup is invalid if:
Until then — rallies are sells.
Bottom Line
This chart is distribution → breakdown → weak retracement → continuation.
If FOMC delivers even mild hawkish surprise, Bitcoin has clean air below and a very real path toward 70k and potentially mid-50s.
Trade it like a professional:
Bitcoin is clearly in a macro downtrend on the daily timeframe.
- Price has broken market structure from the October high and continues to print lower highs and lower lows
- The recent upside move was corrective, not impulsive — price failed below the 0.382–0.5 Fibonacci retracement zone
- BTC was rejected from a key supply zone / prior distribution range (highlighted red box)
- Long-term ascending trendline has been decisively broken
- Momentum is rolling over again after a weak bounce
This is classic bear market retracement → continuation behavior.
Fibonacci & Key Levels
Measured from the swing high to the December low:
- 0.382–0.5 Fib zone acted as resistance (clean rejection)
- Failure to reclaim 0.5 confirms sellers remain in control
- Price is now threatening continuation toward major liquidity below
Key downside liquidity targets:
- 80,000 (local support, likely to break)
- 72,000–70,000 (next liquidity pocket)
- 55,000–54,000 (major HTF demand and prior accumulation base)
That 54,900 area is the real magnet if fear hits.
RSI & Momentum
- RSI rolled over from mid-range, failed to regain bullish territory
- No bullish divergence present
- Momentum favors continuation lower, not reversal
Fundamental Catalyst – FOMC Risk
This week’s FOMC meeting is a major volatility trigger.
If:
- Powell stays hawkish
- Rates stay higher for longer
- Liquidity expectations get pushed out
Crypto does not like that environment, and BTC typically reacts fast and hard.
Technicals already point lower — FOMC can be the fuel.
Trade Plan – Short Setup (Primary Bias)
Entry (Sell)
Option 1 – Aggressive
- Sell on a daily close below 84,000
Option 2 – Conservative
- Sell on a pullback into 86,500–88,000 (prior support turned resistance)
Stop Loss
- Initial SL: 91,500
- Above supply zone and failed Fib reclaim
- If price gets here, the bearish thesis is invalidated
Take Profit Targets
Scale out — don’t be greedy.
- TP1: 80,000
- TP2: 72,000
- TP3 (Runner): 55,000–54,000 HTF demand zone
Trade Management (Very Important)
Once trade is +3,000 points in profit:
- Move Stop Loss to Breakeven +1,000 points
- Activate trailing stop of 3,000 points
- Let volatility work for you — especially during FOMC
This protects capital while keeping you in for the flush.
Invalidation
This bearish setup is invalid if:
- BTC reclaims and holds above 92,000 on a daily close
- Strong bullish displacement through the supply zone
Until then — rallies are sells.
Bottom Line
This chart is distribution → breakdown → weak retracement → continuation.
If FOMC delivers even mild hawkish surprise, Bitcoin has clean air below and a very real path toward 70k and potentially mid-50s.
Trade it like a professional:
- Defined risk
- Mechanical execution
- No emotional attachment
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منشورات ذات صلة
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.
➡️ Managed Forex Accounts manage.forex
➡️ Passing Services wepasschallenges.com
➡️ Premium Expert Advisors iqalgos.com
➡️ 1-on-1 Mentorship miamitradingacademy.com
➡️ Best Prop Firm | 15% Off Code "MIKE15" @ 8figuretrader.com
➡️ Passing Services wepasschallenges.com
➡️ Premium Expert Advisors iqalgos.com
➡️ 1-on-1 Mentorship miamitradingacademy.com
➡️ Best Prop Firm | 15% Off Code "MIKE15" @ 8figuretrader.com
منشورات ذات صلة
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.