Markets are in a clear risk off mood as geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on sentiment. Oil prices remain elevated, stocks are under pressure because of fresh concerns about AI infrastructure spending, and Bitcoin is stuck between $63,000 and $65,000. Investors are now balancing two major risks: the possibility of supply disruptions in the Middle East and a Federal Reserve that looks more likely to stay hawkish than cut rates before month end
Semiconductor stocks led the market lower after investors questioned whether major cloud companies might slow their AI spending. That triggered profit taking in one of this year's strongest trades, with money flowing into more defensive sectors and energy stocks as traders reduced exposure to high growth technology names
Oil continues to carry a sizable geopolitical premium. Brent crude climbed above $85 a barrel, reaching its highest level in a month and heading for a weekly gain of more than 10%. Rising tensions between the US and Iran have fueled concerns about supply disruptions, especially after the US reinstated a naval blockade targeting Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz.
As a result, oil prices have been reacting quickly to every new headline
Bitcoin continues to trade in a tight range. It is currently hovering around $64,100 after briefly falling below $63,000 on July 17, hitting an intraday low of $62,924.80 as US Iran tensions intensified
Ethereum has been weaker than Bitcoin. After opening Friday at $1,863.16, it slipped to $1,832.29, giving back its short lived move above $1,900. The first resistance sits near $1,847, while the 200 day moving average around $2,400 remains the key level bulls need to reclaim to improve the longer term outlook
Meanwhile, ETF flows have turned into a positive catalyst. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have now posted four straight days of inflows while BTC tests resistance near $64,000. That marks a notable shift after the previous record outflow streak that totaled roughly $8 billion
Options Market Braces for the FOMC
Despite constant geopolitical headlines, Bitcoin volatility has stayed relatively subdued. With BTC continuing to trade between $63,000 and $65,000, realized volatility has fallen, making short-term options look inexpensive compared with the potential risks tied to the oil market and broader geopolitical developments.
At the same time, traders have started positioning for upside into the end of the month. Dealers are now short upside gamma ahead of the July 28 to 29 FOMC meeting, which could amplify any rally if tensions around the Strait of Hormuz begin to ease
Demand for downside protection had surged as the Iran situation worsened, but that has eased somewhat following the recent return of inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Semiconductor stocks led the market lower after investors questioned whether major cloud companies might slow their AI spending. That triggered profit taking in one of this year's strongest trades, with money flowing into more defensive sectors and energy stocks as traders reduced exposure to high growth technology names
Oil continues to carry a sizable geopolitical premium. Brent crude climbed above $85 a barrel, reaching its highest level in a month and heading for a weekly gain of more than 10%. Rising tensions between the US and Iran have fueled concerns about supply disruptions, especially after the US reinstated a naval blockade targeting Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz.
As a result, oil prices have been reacting quickly to every new headline
Bitcoin continues to trade in a tight range. It is currently hovering around $64,100 after briefly falling below $63,000 on July 17, hitting an intraday low of $62,924.80 as US Iran tensions intensified
Ethereum has been weaker than Bitcoin. After opening Friday at $1,863.16, it slipped to $1,832.29, giving back its short lived move above $1,900. The first resistance sits near $1,847, while the 200 day moving average around $2,400 remains the key level bulls need to reclaim to improve the longer term outlook
Meanwhile, ETF flows have turned into a positive catalyst. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have now posted four straight days of inflows while BTC tests resistance near $64,000. That marks a notable shift after the previous record outflow streak that totaled roughly $8 billion
Options Market Braces for the FOMC
Despite constant geopolitical headlines, Bitcoin volatility has stayed relatively subdued. With BTC continuing to trade between $63,000 and $65,000, realized volatility has fallen, making short-term options look inexpensive compared with the potential risks tied to the oil market and broader geopolitical developments.
At the same time, traders have started positioning for upside into the end of the month. Dealers are now short upside gamma ahead of the July 28 to 29 FOMC meeting, which could amplify any rally if tensions around the Strait of Hormuz begin to ease
Demand for downside protection had surged as the Iran situation worsened, but that has eased somewhat following the recent return of inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs.
تم فتح الصفقة
On July 31 (ET), spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net outflows of $265 million, led by BlackRock’s IBIT with $123 million in net outflows. Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded total net inflows of $9.0295 million, led by BlackRock’s ETHB with $15.3831 million in net inflows
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