January closed below 80K, something that did not happen in any monthly candle during 2025.
This shift opens two main scenarios:
*A potential bear market
*Or a broader consolidation year
As long as we do not get a monthly close below 70.5K, the base case remains consolidation, not a clear bear market.
Additionally, during 2025 we did not fully fill the monthly Fair Value Gap (FVG), located around 73.6K.
This keeps that level technically open, making it a valid level to revisit and a strong demand zone to look for a corrective long.
Daily Structure & Momentum
On the daily timeframe, price has printed a lower low, which is structurally bearish;
However, we can clearly see a double bottom on RSI
This effectively acts as a bullish RSI divergence, suggesting downside exhaustion rather than continuation
February Range Expectation
For February, the expectation is continued consolidation or correction.
A reasonable working range for the month:
*Lower bound: ~70K
*Upper bound: ~95K
As long as price remains inside this range, we are still operating within a consolidation environment.
A clean break outside of these boundaries would imply a shift into a different market regime.
It is also important to remember that the yearly Point of Control (POC) is located around 90K, making it a key magnet and reference level for price.
Trading Plan:
Primary idea for February:
Look for a corrective long around 73K–73.5K, targeting a move back toward 90K, aligned with the open monthly FVG and higher-timeframe structure(Montly EQL's)
Weekly Probability Trades (CoinGlass-Based)
What this data represents:
The “Week with the highest probability to close Bullish or Bearish” does NOT refer to weekly returns.
It is based on CoinGlass historical data, specifically on how many times a given week has closed Bullish or Bearish throughout history.
In other words, this is a probability of weekly close direction, not percentage performance.
Based on CoinGlass data for February:
Week 7 (February 9 – February 15):
Highest probability to close Bullish → Bullish bias
Week 8 (February 16 – February 22):
Highest probability to close Bearish → Bearish bias
These probabilities define a directional bias, not an automatic trade.
Execution Logic:
Because this is about weekly close probabilities, the plan is to trade toward the expected weekly close.
If we are at the beginning of the week, we look to align early with the probabilistic direction.
If we are already in the middle or later part of the week and price is still moving against the direction with the highest probability to close, we will look for entries in favor of that probabilistic bias.
Targets & Positioning:
*The Weekly Open, or
*Beyond the Weekly Open, if structure and momentum allow it
Prefering wide invalidations based on Mid TimeFrames like H1 and H4
Non-Negotiable Rule:
No price confirmation = no trade in that direction
Probabilities will provide context and bias, not entries, execution is always driven by price action confirmation.
This shift opens two main scenarios:
*A potential bear market
*Or a broader consolidation year
As long as we do not get a monthly close below 70.5K, the base case remains consolidation, not a clear bear market.
Additionally, during 2025 we did not fully fill the monthly Fair Value Gap (FVG), located around 73.6K.
This keeps that level technically open, making it a valid level to revisit and a strong demand zone to look for a corrective long.
Daily Structure & Momentum
On the daily timeframe, price has printed a lower low, which is structurally bearish;
However, we can clearly see a double bottom on RSI
This effectively acts as a bullish RSI divergence, suggesting downside exhaustion rather than continuation
February Range Expectation
For February, the expectation is continued consolidation or correction.
A reasonable working range for the month:
*Lower bound: ~70K
*Upper bound: ~95K
As long as price remains inside this range, we are still operating within a consolidation environment.
A clean break outside of these boundaries would imply a shift into a different market regime.
It is also important to remember that the yearly Point of Control (POC) is located around 90K, making it a key magnet and reference level for price.
Trading Plan:
Primary idea for February:
Look for a corrective long around 73K–73.5K, targeting a move back toward 90K, aligned with the open monthly FVG and higher-timeframe structure(Montly EQL's)
Weekly Probability Trades (CoinGlass-Based)
What this data represents:
The “Week with the highest probability to close Bullish or Bearish” does NOT refer to weekly returns.
It is based on CoinGlass historical data, specifically on how many times a given week has closed Bullish or Bearish throughout history.
In other words, this is a probability of weekly close direction, not percentage performance.
Based on CoinGlass data for February:
Week 7 (February 9 – February 15):
Highest probability to close Bullish → Bullish bias
Week 8 (February 16 – February 22):
Highest probability to close Bearish → Bearish bias
These probabilities define a directional bias, not an automatic trade.
Execution Logic:
Because this is about weekly close probabilities, the plan is to trade toward the expected weekly close.
If we are at the beginning of the week, we look to align early with the probabilistic direction.
If we are already in the middle or later part of the week and price is still moving against the direction with the highest probability to close, we will look for entries in favor of that probabilistic bias.
Targets & Positioning:
*The Weekly Open, or
*Beyond the Weekly Open, if structure and momentum allow it
Prefering wide invalidations based on Mid TimeFrames like H1 and H4
Non-Negotiable Rule:
No price confirmation = no trade in that direction
Probabilities will provide context and bias, not entries, execution is always driven by price action confirmation.
تم فتح الصفقة
Long filled at 73K stop at 72k
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.