After the –36% drop from ATH, Bitcoin has found support in the 80K–90K range, where price has now been chopping sideways for almost 60 days. This kind of consolidation is pretty typical after a sharp selloff.
Back in June 2025, I already mentioned that a potential Cypher harmonic could be forming on BTC. At the time it was still early, but months later the structure is lining up very cleanly and looks like it’s playing out step by step.
The 86K–82K zone remains a key support area that bulls need to defend. Losing this zone would be a big deal technically and would likely open the door for further downside.
Macro Context
Cypher patterns are powerful because they combine:
They tend to appear near major cycle inflection points, especially after extended bullish phases and distribution-style highs. This makes them particularly relevant in the current market environment.
Let’s break the structure down step by step.
Cypher Structure Breakdown (X–A–B–C–D)
BTC has respected the key Fibonacci relationships of a Cypher extremely well.
X → A: Impulse Move
This was a strong, clean impulsive leg showing clear bullish dominance and participation.
Psychology:
Late bears trapped, early longs confident
A → B: Pullback
Price retraced to 0.579, sitting nicely within the Cypher sweet spot (0.382–0.618).
Structure held, which is crucial.
Psychology:
Doubt kicks in → “Is the move over?” → weak hands get shaken out.
B → C: Expansion & Euphoria
BTC pushed to the 1.274 extension of XA, clearly exceeding point A.
This is where optimism peaked and momentum chasing kicked in.
Psychology:
FOMO → breakout buying → late-cycle confidence
C → D: Reversal Zone
This is the most important part of the structure.
Strong overlap with:
Psychology:
Euphoria → disbelief → forced selling → acceptance.
Where We Are Now
Bitcoin is currently trading between C and D, meaning:
100K psychological level remains the major overhead barrier. As long as price stays below this level, bulls are on the defensive.
Macro Check
The broader technical picture remains cautious:
Structurally, this looks very similar to previous cycle transitions where momentum slowly faded before deeper moves followed.
Scenarios Going Forward
🔴 Primary Scenario
If the Cypher continues to play out:
target zone sits around:
This would be a healthy macro correction.
🟢 Invalidation Scenario
The bearish structure weakens if:
In that case, the Cypher either gets delayed or invalidated.
Final Thoughts
Right now, the data favors patience and caution.
The most ideal path would be:
followed by continuation lower toward the 74.5K year low, which I’d like to see taken out
In choppy conditions like this, no trade is still a trade. Staying flat, preserving capital, and waiting for clarity is often the smartest move. Plan your levels, set alerts, and only act when the market gives you a high-probability setup.
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💬 If you found this helpful, drop a like and comment!
Back in June 2025, I already mentioned that a potential Cypher harmonic could be forming on BTC. At the time it was still early, but months later the structure is lining up very cleanly and looks like it’s playing out step by step.
The 86K–82K zone remains a key support area that bulls need to defend. Losing this zone would be a big deal technically and would likely open the door for further downside.
Macro Context
Cypher patterns are powerful because they combine:
- impulse exhaustion
- failed continuation
- deep retracement psychology
They tend to appear near major cycle inflection points, especially after extended bullish phases and distribution-style highs. This makes them particularly relevant in the current market environment.
Let’s break the structure down step by step.
Cypher Structure Breakdown (X–A–B–C–D)
BTC has respected the key Fibonacci relationships of a Cypher extremely well.
X → A: Impulse Move
This was a strong, clean impulsive leg showing clear bullish dominance and participation.
Psychology:
Late bears trapped, early longs confident
A → B: Pullback
Price retraced to 0.579, sitting nicely within the Cypher sweet spot (0.382–0.618).
Structure held, which is crucial.
Psychology:
Doubt kicks in → “Is the move over?” → weak hands get shaken out.
B → C: Expansion & Euphoria
BTC pushed to the 1.274 extension of XA, clearly exceeding point A.
This is where optimism peaked and momentum chasing kicked in.
Psychology:
FOMO → breakout buying → late-cycle confidence
C → D: Reversal Zone
This is the most important part of the structure.
- 0.786 retracement of XC
- Completion zone around 65.5K
Strong overlap with:
- 2021 ATH
- 2024 trading range
Psychology:
Euphoria → disbelief → forced selling → acceptance.
Where We Are Now
Bitcoin is currently trading between C and D, meaning:
- we’re in a corrective phase
- volatility has faded
- and for the first time in four years, we’re seeing a clear bearish bias after a long period of bullish momentum
100K psychological level remains the major overhead barrier. As long as price stays below this level, bulls are on the defensive.
Macro Check
The broader technical picture remains cautious:
- Below previous yearly open (93.5K)
- Above yearly open (87.6K)
- Below weekly 21 EMA/SMA (98K-102K)
- Above monthly 21 EMA/SMA (87K–89K)
Structurally, this looks very similar to previous cycle transitions where momentum slowly faded before deeper moves followed.
Scenarios Going Forward
🔴 Primary Scenario
If the Cypher continues to play out:
- downside pressure persists
- volatility expands near liquidity pockets
target zone sits around:
- 66K–64K, centered near the 0.786 Fib (~65.5K)
This would be a healthy macro correction.
🟢 Invalidation Scenario
The bearish structure weakens if:
- BTC reclaims and holds above prior value
- price shows acceptance above 100K
- momentum flips bullish again
In that case, the Cypher either gets delayed or invalidated.
Final Thoughts
Right now, the data favors patience and caution.
The most ideal path would be:
- a push into the 97K–100K resistance zone
followed by continuation lower toward the 74.5K year low, which I’d like to see taken out
In choppy conditions like this, no trade is still a trade. Staying flat, preserving capital, and waiting for clarity is often the smartest move. Plan your levels, set alerts, and only act when the market gives you a high-probability setup.
_________________________________
💬 If you found this helpful, drop a like and comment!
ملاحظة
BTC update:
Bitcoin rejected cleanly from the marked red rejection zone (golden pocket), coming very close to touch the 0.382 retracement (~98K) of the move down from the ATH. The anchored VWAP from ATH added extra confluence and helped validate the setup.
Now we saw a sharp move back down toward 90K, with price bouncing at the 88K POC. This area lines up with multiple supports:
- yearly open
- 21 monthly EMA/SMA
- 0.618 speed fan
This is a key make or beak zone for the bulls
ملاحظة
ملاحظة
Bitcoin Update:BTC has hit that long awaited level, so it's prime time to tune in. After a hefty -52% drop from the $126K peak down to $60K, a cypher harmonic pattern, might be kicking in → think of it as an advanced reversal setup in harmonic trading, shaped like a skewed 'M' or 'W' with specific Fibonacci ratios. It dipped a tad below the 0.786 Fib level but has held firm at $60K with a decent bounce so far.
The $65K–$60K range looks like a sweet spot for jumping into longs, backed by confluence from the quarterly 21 EMA/SMA between $59K-$55K, sitting just under the $60K psychological barrier. Adding to that, the 0.618 Fib retracement of the full 4-year bull cycle lands at $57.8K for extra support.
For the most optimal long entry, eye the 0.666 Fib retracement meshing with the 1.0 trend-based Fib extension at $52.4K → the anchored VWAP hovers just below at $48.5K as backup. Overall, the $60K–$50K zone screams the buy opportunity we've been eyeing. Remember, in trading it's all about the right entry, nailing these confluence areas can stack the odds in your favor.
I'd also suggest peeking at TOTAL CRYPTO (total market cap), TOTAL2 (excluding BTC), and TOTAL3 (excluding BTC and ETH) → these indices give a bird's-eye view of broader market health and altcoin strength relative to BTC
ملاحظة
BTC played out well. Now I’d like to see $80K act as resistance zone → bears need to defend this level to maintain bearish momentum. A move down over the coming months toward the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $57.77K would be the ideal scenario. I’ll be sharing a full BTC analysis soon, including where the bottom may form, so stay tuned
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🏆 Mastering Fibonacci for precision trading
🔹 Sharing high-probability trade setups
⚡ Unlock the power of technical analysis!
🔹 Sharing high-probability trade setups
⚡ Unlock the power of technical analysis!
منشورات ذات صلة
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.