Bitcoin’s structure has weakened over the past few weeks. The decline that began on October 20 is gaining momentum, with price compressing against local support and starting to break below it. Repeated pressure on this zone keeps the near-term outlook bearish.
The first downside level to watch is $75,500, roughly 5% below current levels. This support could trigger a temporary relief bounce. If selling pressure continues, the next significant area is the 4H support zone around $70,000, approximately 12% lower.
For now, the macro backdrop and technical structure favor further downside.
Invalidation: BTC needs to reverse the downtrend in place since October 20, reclaim $82,000, and establish support above it. Until that happens, the base case remains a move toward $75,500, with $70,000 as the deeper support area.
The first downside level to watch is $75,500, roughly 5% below current levels. This support could trigger a temporary relief bounce. If selling pressure continues, the next significant area is the 4H support zone around $70,000, approximately 12% lower.
For now, the macro backdrop and technical structure favor further downside.
Invalidation: BTC needs to reverse the downtrend in place since October 20, reclaim $82,000, and establish support above it. Until that happens, the base case remains a move toward $75,500, with $70,000 as the deeper support area.
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