Bitcoin Rally Failed Near the Top — Is a Bigger Drop Next?
As I expected at the start of the week—just like I mentioned in the previous daily timeframe post—Bitcoin(
BTCUSDT) began to decline from around the resistance lines, resistance zone($79,500-$78,750), and the 21_SMA(Weekly). In recent hours, this decline has been continuing with solid momentum.
From a classical technical analysis standpoint, it looks like Bitcoin, on the 4-hour timeframe, is forming an Adam & Adam Double Top Pattern(AADT)—one of the valid types of double-top patterns. A notable sign is that the right top is approaching the neckline with strong momentum, which adds to the pattern’s reliability.
From an Elliott Wave Theory perspective, it seems Bitcoin has completed its main wave 4 right near the resistance lines.
Also, we can see a negative Regular Divergence(RD-) between the last two peaks.
Since the S&P500 index(
SPX500) is near its all-time highs, we must also keep an eye on it. If the S&P corrects from these highs, Bitcoin’s decline could be amplified due to their correlation. This increases the likelihood of further downside.
I expect that after breaking the support zone ($77,160-$76,740) and the neckline, Bitcoin could drop at least to around $74,900. If the downward momentum is strong, we could look for lower targets.
Target: $74,900
Stop Loss: $81,000(Worst)
Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $80,100-$79,540
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $76,980-$76,200
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $74,500-$73,500
CME gap: $84,560-$79,660
CME gap: $69,535-$70,055
CME gap: $67,570-$67,170
What’s your view on Bitcoin? Could it push toward $80,000, or should we anticipate a deeper correction?
💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.
📌Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 4-hour time frame.
🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.
✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!
🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
BTCUSDT) began to decline from around the resistance lines, resistance zone($79,500-$78,750), and the 21_SMA(Weekly). In recent hours, this decline has been continuing with solid momentum.From a classical technical analysis standpoint, it looks like Bitcoin, on the 4-hour timeframe, is forming an Adam & Adam Double Top Pattern(AADT)—one of the valid types of double-top patterns. A notable sign is that the right top is approaching the neckline with strong momentum, which adds to the pattern’s reliability.
From an Elliott Wave Theory perspective, it seems Bitcoin has completed its main wave 4 right near the resistance lines.
Also, we can see a negative Regular Divergence(RD-) between the last two peaks.
Since the S&P500 index(
SPX500) is near its all-time highs, we must also keep an eye on it. If the S&P corrects from these highs, Bitcoin’s decline could be amplified due to their correlation. This increases the likelihood of further downside.I expect that after breaking the support zone ($77,160-$76,740) and the neckline, Bitcoin could drop at least to around $74,900. If the downward momentum is strong, we could look for lower targets.
Target: $74,900
Stop Loss: $81,000(Worst)
Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $80,100-$79,540
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $76,980-$76,200
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $74,500-$73,500
CME gap: $84,560-$79,660
CME gap: $69,535-$70,055
CME gap: $67,570-$67,170
What’s your view on Bitcoin? Could it push toward $80,000, or should we anticipate a deeper correction?
💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.
📌Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 4-hour time frame.
🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.
✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!
🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
تم فتح الصفقة
Trade was activated ملاحظة
No massive breaking news dropped in the last few hours to send BTC skyrocketing.Right now, Bitcoin is trading around $77,757 — up about +1.5% today and holding steady in the $76.5K–$77.5K range after a strong April (+10% gains, best month since May 2025).
What’s keeping the energy high?
- The Bitcoin 2026 Conference in Las Vegas is in full swing (final day today!) with hot discussions on the CLARITY Act for clearer crypto rules and America’s potential strategic Bitcoin reserve.
- Big highlight: Czech National Bank Governor just made a strong case for allocating 1% of their $180B reserves to Bitcoin — calling it a “conservative but innovative” move with almost zero added risk.
Today’s big event? The FOMC decision + Powell’s speech. Markets are watching closely — a dovish tone could light the fuse for the next leg up.
There may be a lot of excitement in the financial markets today, so be careful and be sure to follow capital management.
أغلقت الصفقة: تم الوصول للهدف
Target Done = $74,900
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إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.