The macro case for EUR/USD is broadly bullish in the medium-term context. Eurozone inflation has converged to the ECB’s target (2.0%) while growth surprised to the upside in Q4. The Fed is on pause, with political pressure and inflation stickiness limiting its dovish flexibility, but easing remains the base case for 2026. Market positioning remains heavily short USD and long EUR, with EUR/USD hovering near multi-month highs.
However, the short-term outlook is more nuanced. This week’s high-impact events (U.S. NFP, Eurozone flash inflation, BoE decision) introduce asymmetric risk. If U.S. labour data surprises to the upside or if wage inflation prints hot, rate differentials could swing back toward USD, prompting a corrective move in EUR/USD. Additionally, technical indicators across multiple intraday timeframes indicate waning upside momentum.
Momentum & Structure:
EMA Confluence (HFT-based): Price is below the 9–55 EMAs across 1H and 15M, suggesting bearish pressure. The 200 EMA (1H HFT anchor) near 1.1860 is acting as a gravity line. Price action repeatedly tests this zone without a strong bullish break.
MACD (1H): Bearish crossover persists; histogram remains in negative territory, signalling ongoing downside momentum.
RSI (1H): Currently ~41. RSI has pulled back from overbought levels and is not yet oversold, leaving room for further downside before a reversal setup is triggered.
Volume: No aggressive buying volumes near the HFT trendline, no confirmation yet of strong dip-buying behaviour.
Bear Thesis
Trade Setup: EUR/USD Short (Tactical Pullback)
Entry: Sell on rejection at 1.1870–1.1885
Stop-Loss (SL): 1.1915
Take-Profit Targets (TP):
TP1: 1.1805 (recent intraday low)
TP2: 1.1760 (trendline support + volume shelf)
TP3: 1.1715 (EMA trend cluster base / deeper retracement support)
Rationale: NFP beats expectations, wage inflation > 4%, Fed speakers reinforce pause without easing commitment. EUR/USD breaks 1.1840 and accelerates to test 1.1760 quickly. Dollar shorts unwind, creating positioning-driven sell pressure in EUR/USD.
Bull Thesis
Rationale: Eurozone inflation surprises to the downside and dovish ECB commentary is absent, pushing the EUR higher. U.S. labour data disappoints (e.g., <150k NFP, soft wage growth), triggering renewed USD weakness and EUR/USD squeeze. A bullish breakout above 1.1915 with strong volume and an RSI > 60 confirms trend continuation.
Switch bias to buy-the-dip on EUR/USD into 1.1870/1.1885 support retests, targeting 1.1970 and 1.2040.
However, the short-term outlook is more nuanced. This week’s high-impact events (U.S. NFP, Eurozone flash inflation, BoE decision) introduce asymmetric risk. If U.S. labour data surprises to the upside or if wage inflation prints hot, rate differentials could swing back toward USD, prompting a corrective move in EUR/USD. Additionally, technical indicators across multiple intraday timeframes indicate waning upside momentum.
Momentum & Structure:
EMA Confluence (HFT-based): Price is below the 9–55 EMAs across 1H and 15M, suggesting bearish pressure. The 200 EMA (1H HFT anchor) near 1.1860 is acting as a gravity line. Price action repeatedly tests this zone without a strong bullish break.
MACD (1H): Bearish crossover persists; histogram remains in negative territory, signalling ongoing downside momentum.
RSI (1H): Currently ~41. RSI has pulled back from overbought levels and is not yet oversold, leaving room for further downside before a reversal setup is triggered.
Volume: No aggressive buying volumes near the HFT trendline, no confirmation yet of strong dip-buying behaviour.
Bear Thesis
Trade Setup: EUR/USD Short (Tactical Pullback)
Entry: Sell on rejection at 1.1870–1.1885
Stop-Loss (SL): 1.1915
Take-Profit Targets (TP):
TP1: 1.1805 (recent intraday low)
TP2: 1.1760 (trendline support + volume shelf)
TP3: 1.1715 (EMA trend cluster base / deeper retracement support)
Rationale: NFP beats expectations, wage inflation > 4%, Fed speakers reinforce pause without easing commitment. EUR/USD breaks 1.1840 and accelerates to test 1.1760 quickly. Dollar shorts unwind, creating positioning-driven sell pressure in EUR/USD.
Bull Thesis
Rationale: Eurozone inflation surprises to the downside and dovish ECB commentary is absent, pushing the EUR higher. U.S. labour data disappoints (e.g., <150k NFP, soft wage growth), triggering renewed USD weakness and EUR/USD squeeze. A bullish breakout above 1.1915 with strong volume and an RSI > 60 confirms trend continuation.
Switch bias to buy-the-dip on EUR/USD into 1.1870/1.1885 support retests, targeting 1.1970 and 1.2040.
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.