After several weeks of selling pressure, I believe EUR/USD is approaching one of the most important technical areas of the current trend.
Despite the recent pullback, I still consider this move a correction inside a broader bullish market rather than the beginning of a long-term bearish reversal.
📊 Institutional Positioning (COT Report)
The latest Commitment of Traders report continues to show that institutional positioning remains supportive of the euro.
Although Non-Commercial traders reduced part of their long exposure while increasing short positions during the last reporting week, the overall positioning suggests profit-taking rather than aggressive bearish positioning.
At the same time, the Dollar Index continues to show strong institutional demand, but the latest report also reveals decreasing positioning on both sides, indicating a slowdown in dollar momentum rather than renewed strength.
📅 Seasonality
Seasonality is another factor supporting my bullish outlook.
Historically, July has been one of the strongest months for EUR/USD across multiple historical datasets.
The average performance over the last:
• 20 years
• 15 years
• 5 years
• 2 years
remains positive, with strength often increasing during the second half of the month.
👥 Retail Sentiment
Retail traders remain heavily positioned on the long side.
Current positioning:
• 64% Long
• 36% Short
While this could still trigger some short-term liquidity grabs below recent lows, retail sentiment alone is not enough to invalidate the broader bullish structure.
Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, EUR/USD continues to trade inside a descending corrective channel.
Price is currently reacting from a major Daily Demand Zone around 1.1350–1.1400, where buyers have started defending the market.
The recent candles suggest that selling momentum is fading while buyers are gradually building higher lows inside the zone.
As long as this support holds, I expect buyers to attempt a move toward the first supply areas.
Bullish Scenario
If buyers manage to break the descending channel, my next upside targets become:
🎯 1.1600
🎯 1.1665
🎯 1.1750
🎯 1.1850
Bearish Scenario
Only a Daily close below 1.1350 would invalidate my bullish bias.
In that case, price could extend toward the 1.1300–1.1250 support area before attracting fresh buyers.
My Trading Plan
I want to see confirmation that buyers are taking control before looking for long opportunities.
Despite the recent pullback, I still consider this move a correction inside a broader bullish market rather than the beginning of a long-term bearish reversal.
📊 Institutional Positioning (COT Report)
The latest Commitment of Traders report continues to show that institutional positioning remains supportive of the euro.
Although Non-Commercial traders reduced part of their long exposure while increasing short positions during the last reporting week, the overall positioning suggests profit-taking rather than aggressive bearish positioning.
At the same time, the Dollar Index continues to show strong institutional demand, but the latest report also reveals decreasing positioning on both sides, indicating a slowdown in dollar momentum rather than renewed strength.
📅 Seasonality
Seasonality is another factor supporting my bullish outlook.
Historically, July has been one of the strongest months for EUR/USD across multiple historical datasets.
The average performance over the last:
• 20 years
• 15 years
• 5 years
• 2 years
remains positive, with strength often increasing during the second half of the month.
👥 Retail Sentiment
Retail traders remain heavily positioned on the long side.
Current positioning:
• 64% Long
• 36% Short
While this could still trigger some short-term liquidity grabs below recent lows, retail sentiment alone is not enough to invalidate the broader bullish structure.
Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, EUR/USD continues to trade inside a descending corrective channel.
Price is currently reacting from a major Daily Demand Zone around 1.1350–1.1400, where buyers have started defending the market.
The recent candles suggest that selling momentum is fading while buyers are gradually building higher lows inside the zone.
As long as this support holds, I expect buyers to attempt a move toward the first supply areas.
Bullish Scenario
If buyers manage to break the descending channel, my next upside targets become:
🎯 1.1600
🎯 1.1665
🎯 1.1750
🎯 1.1850
Bearish Scenario
Only a Daily close below 1.1350 would invalidate my bullish bias.
In that case, price could extend toward the 1.1300–1.1250 support area before attracting fresh buyers.
My Trading Plan
I want to see confirmation that buyers are taking control before looking for long opportunities.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.