Gold rose, but remained within its six-day trading range, indicating that investors are currently in a wait-and-see mode and market volatility is about to erupt. Generally speaking, the tighter the consolidation range, the stronger the subsequent breakout will be. Although the direction is still unclear, the upward tendency is stronger when looking at the relative position of gold prices to the 50-day moving average.
On the daily chart, the mid-range of $5002.31 to $5143.89 has acted as support for gold prices since hitting a low of $4996.27 on March 3. The 50-day moving average at $4898.39 provides further downside buffer. Currently, gold prices are hovering around the Fibonacci level of $5,143.89, but are facing resistance at the 50% retracement level of $5,207.97. The bulls still hold the upper hand, but the strength of their position remains to be seen. If gold can hold above $5,143.89, it indicates active buying; once it breaks through $5,207.97, it shows that buyers are starting to chase the price higher, which could generate momentum and push gold prices to challenge last week's high of $5,419.66 in the short term.
Despite ongoing geopolitical conflicts, gold prices have generally declined since the outbreak of the conflicts, indicating that war is not the only dominant factor. Inflation expectations, uncertainty surrounding the timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and concerns about monetary policy tightening are limiting further gains in gold prices. If the buying pressure fails to absorb the upper order book, the bulls will become passive, and the 50-day moving average of $4,898.39 may become the focus again.
Crude oil nears $100: The real threat to gold
From a fundamental perspective, market focus remains on crude oil prices. If crude oil continues to break through $100 per barrel, it will severely damage the global economy, push up inflation, and force central banks to tighten policies, which is not good for gold. The high volatility in crude oil prices caused gold prices to fluctuate within a range until the volatility in oil prices eased.
Uncertainty surrounding the Fed's interest rate cut has kept gold prices stagnant.
Crude oil, US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and Fed policy are highly correlated. If crude oil prices remain above $100 for an extended period, it will exacerbate inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, signs of weakness in the US labor market have put the Federal Reserve in a dilemma: raising interest rates to curb inflation may sacrifice employment, while lowering interest rates to stimulate employment may allow inflation to spiral out of control. Gold performs better in a low-interest-rate environment. A rate cut in March is now virtually impossible, the outlook for June is also bleak, and the probability of a rate cut in July is only 50/50. Gold bulls reduced their positions as a result, leading to continued range-bound trading.
Investors are looking for clearer signals, but given the ongoing geopolitical conflicts and high oil prices, a major turning point is unlikely in the short term. If the conflict eases and oil prices fall back to the $60 range, the market environment could change rapidly.
We welcome all traders to share their opinions and let's discuss them together.
GOLD XAUUSD XAUUSD $FXOPEN:XAUUSD $FXOPEN:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, the mid-range of $5002.31 to $5143.89 has acted as support for gold prices since hitting a low of $4996.27 on March 3. The 50-day moving average at $4898.39 provides further downside buffer. Currently, gold prices are hovering around the Fibonacci level of $5,143.89, but are facing resistance at the 50% retracement level of $5,207.97. The bulls still hold the upper hand, but the strength of their position remains to be seen. If gold can hold above $5,143.89, it indicates active buying; once it breaks through $5,207.97, it shows that buyers are starting to chase the price higher, which could generate momentum and push gold prices to challenge last week's high of $5,419.66 in the short term.
Despite ongoing geopolitical conflicts, gold prices have generally declined since the outbreak of the conflicts, indicating that war is not the only dominant factor. Inflation expectations, uncertainty surrounding the timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and concerns about monetary policy tightening are limiting further gains in gold prices. If the buying pressure fails to absorb the upper order book, the bulls will become passive, and the 50-day moving average of $4,898.39 may become the focus again.
Crude oil nears $100: The real threat to gold
From a fundamental perspective, market focus remains on crude oil prices. If crude oil continues to break through $100 per barrel, it will severely damage the global economy, push up inflation, and force central banks to tighten policies, which is not good for gold. The high volatility in crude oil prices caused gold prices to fluctuate within a range until the volatility in oil prices eased.
Uncertainty surrounding the Fed's interest rate cut has kept gold prices stagnant.
Crude oil, US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and Fed policy are highly correlated. If crude oil prices remain above $100 for an extended period, it will exacerbate inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, signs of weakness in the US labor market have put the Federal Reserve in a dilemma: raising interest rates to curb inflation may sacrifice employment, while lowering interest rates to stimulate employment may allow inflation to spiral out of control. Gold performs better in a low-interest-rate environment. A rate cut in March is now virtually impossible, the outlook for June is also bleak, and the probability of a rate cut in July is only 50/50. Gold bulls reduced their positions as a result, leading to continued range-bound trading.
Investors are looking for clearer signals, but given the ongoing geopolitical conflicts and high oil prices, a major turning point is unlikely in the short term. If the conflict eases and oil prices fall back to the $60 range, the market environment could change rapidly.
We welcome all traders to share their opinions and let's discuss them together.
GOLD XAUUSD XAUUSD $FXOPEN:XAUUSD $FXOPEN:XAUUSD 
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إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.