The Investment Thesis (Updated):
Oracle (ORCL) is officially playing out exactly as we anticipated. The company's transformation from a legacy database provider into the vital "nervous system" of global AI infrastructure is driving massive momentum. Even though the price has already surged, the colossal backlog for Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) orders proves that the fundamental tailwinds are just getting started.
Given our high long-term targets, the train has not left the station. In the current environment, any short-term pullback is a textbook opportunity to accumulate or add to the position before the next leg up towards new All-Time Highs (ATH).
1. Fundamentals: Strong Margins & Exponential Demand
Still Undervalued on a Macro Scale: Even with the recent run-up, conservative DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) valuations still place Oracle’s fair value in the $255 region. The long-term margin of safety remains highly attractive.
EPS Acceleration: A projected year-over-year earnings growth of 23.88% keeps Oracle at the absolute forefront of the Software sector, easily outperforming its peers.
Economic Moat: High-margin subscriptions and strategic partnerships with OpenAI and hyperscalers ensure highly predictable, recurring revenues with strong net margins (~25%).
2. Technical Analysis (Weekly Chart - W1):
Chasing New All-Time Highs
The Breakout is Real: After a solid reaccumulation phase, the price has successfully broken out of its previous consolidation channel. The old resistance levels are now turning into key support zones.
Our Bullish Stance: Since we are already trading much higher, we are no longer chasing green candles. Instead, every minor pullback or local correction is now our ideal entry trigger to aggressively add to our positions.
Targets: The intermediate structural target is $220, with our ultimate macro target set at a new All-Time High ($255+).
3. Key Risks to Monitor
Debt Servicing: A Debt-to-Equity ratio of 344% requires ongoing attention, especially if macroeconomic conditions or central bank policies shift.
Healthy Consolidation: Temporary sideways movement or minor profit-taking should be expected after such a strong rally—but again, we view these dips as buying opportunities, not reasons to panic.
The Game Plan (Updated):
The Strategy: Accumulate on dips. Do not chase the highs, but use any red days or local retracements to build/expand your position.
Accumulation Zone: Look for entries during pullbacks to newly established support levels.
Ultimate Target: Ride the wave to new All-Time Highs ($255+).
We are well on our way, but the journey isn't over. How are you playing Oracle here? Are you adding to your position on any minor dips, or are you waiting for a deeper correction? Let's discuss in the comments! 👇
Oracle (ORCL) is officially playing out exactly as we anticipated. The company's transformation from a legacy database provider into the vital "nervous system" of global AI infrastructure is driving massive momentum. Even though the price has already surged, the colossal backlog for Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) orders proves that the fundamental tailwinds are just getting started.
Given our high long-term targets, the train has not left the station. In the current environment, any short-term pullback is a textbook opportunity to accumulate or add to the position before the next leg up towards new All-Time Highs (ATH).
1. Fundamentals: Strong Margins & Exponential Demand
Still Undervalued on a Macro Scale: Even with the recent run-up, conservative DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) valuations still place Oracle’s fair value in the $255 region. The long-term margin of safety remains highly attractive.
EPS Acceleration: A projected year-over-year earnings growth of 23.88% keeps Oracle at the absolute forefront of the Software sector, easily outperforming its peers.
Economic Moat: High-margin subscriptions and strategic partnerships with OpenAI and hyperscalers ensure highly predictable, recurring revenues with strong net margins (~25%).
2. Technical Analysis (Weekly Chart - W1):
Chasing New All-Time Highs
The Breakout is Real: After a solid reaccumulation phase, the price has successfully broken out of its previous consolidation channel. The old resistance levels are now turning into key support zones.
Our Bullish Stance: Since we are already trading much higher, we are no longer chasing green candles. Instead, every minor pullback or local correction is now our ideal entry trigger to aggressively add to our positions.
Targets: The intermediate structural target is $220, with our ultimate macro target set at a new All-Time High ($255+).
3. Key Risks to Monitor
Debt Servicing: A Debt-to-Equity ratio of 344% requires ongoing attention, especially if macroeconomic conditions or central bank policies shift.
Healthy Consolidation: Temporary sideways movement or minor profit-taking should be expected after such a strong rally—but again, we view these dips as buying opportunities, not reasons to panic.
The Game Plan (Updated):
The Strategy: Accumulate on dips. Do not chase the highs, but use any red days or local retracements to build/expand your position.
Accumulation Zone: Look for entries during pullbacks to newly established support levels.
Ultimate Target: Ride the wave to new All-Time Highs ($255+).
We are well on our way, but the journey isn't over. How are you playing Oracle here? Are you adding to your position on any minor dips, or are you waiting for a deeper correction? Let's discuss in the comments! 👇
ملاحظة
English Version for TradingViewORCL Update: Preparing for a Potential Pullback Before the Next Leg Up
Following the massive rally we saw back in April, Oracle (
ORCL) looks like it might want to initiate a healthy correction. This would offer an excellent buying opportunity for late buyers who missed the initial move. For me, even a deeper retracement down to the $130 level remains completely acceptable within the current market structure. I will be looking for a clean break of the bearish structure (reversal confirmation) to heavily scale in.Of course, this corrective theory is not set in stone; the price is currently holding strong around the $190 area. However, if the market presents us with a dip, it is definitely a discount worth taking advantage of!
That being said, I am convinced that anyone accumulating shares at current prices, or anyone who already bought below $200, will be well-positioned. As a reminder, our ultimate long-term and highly realistic target for Oracle remains around the $300 mark.
Strategy: Watching the $190 hold, but keeping cash ready for a potential deeper discount down towards key structural supports.
ملاحظة
Have you managed to get it? New alarms set for B/O Zone re-entry
🎯 Skip the noise! Analysis & watchlists here:
👉 kozikmarketfilter.substack.com/
📊 Deep stock data & valuation tool:
👉 goto.simplywall.st/c/7312139/3201528/40071
☕ Support my work:
👉 buymeacoffee.com/kozik_investingfilter
👉 kozikmarketfilter.substack.com/
📊 Deep stock data & valuation tool:
👉 goto.simplywall.st/c/7312139/3201528/40071
☕ Support my work:
👉 buymeacoffee.com/kozik_investingfilter
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.
🎯 Skip the noise! Analysis & watchlists here:
👉 kozikmarketfilter.substack.com/
📊 Deep stock data & valuation tool:
👉 goto.simplywall.st/c/7312139/3201528/40071
☕ Support my work:
👉 buymeacoffee.com/kozik_investingfilter
👉 kozikmarketfilter.substack.com/
📊 Deep stock data & valuation tool:
👉 goto.simplywall.st/c/7312139/3201528/40071
☕ Support my work:
👉 buymeacoffee.com/kozik_investingfilter
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.