شراء

I have 30 reasons not to wait - long at 17.28

I really can't imagine a better illustration of why I trade the way I do than QUBT. This stock is barely above break even for the year and the 30 signals I've had generated gains collectively of +387%, including 8 double-digit percent gains on trades lasting less than a week. It is also currently still in higher highs/higher lows mode, so that is in my favor as well.

This is a stock trade not without its risks, however. This is a VERY overdone market, in my opinion, and this is a stock that had $62,000 in revenue for the entire last quarter. There is no value here, unless you're willing to wait 10 years and even then get lucky. This is strictly a price fluctuation trade. But if crypto, which doesn't even really exist, can be assigned value and someone will pay for it, then the same can be true for this, I suppose. But if the market comes to its senses while I am holding this, it WILL get ugly.

I intend to be out quickly here, as I do not want to be dancing around with it when the music stops. But the payoffs here are disproportionate so it is a risk I'm willing to take. It is important to be clear-eyed and know what you are trading here. Hope is the only intrinsic value. I will tactically add if the right scenario presents itself, but I will not get out over my skis on a stock like this one.

As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.

ملاحظة

Added another lot at the close for 11.14.

Lots held:

Lot 1 - 17.28
Lot 2 - 11.14

ملاحظة

I don't know whose idea it was to report earnings after the bell on a Friday, but QUBT did and beat handily. My fear is that by Monday, nobody remembers that they did. I have the other lot plus I also own some other quantum stocks, so I'm taking my profit on the 2nd lot here since it is up 13% after hours. Out at 12.02 with a profit of +7.9% in 2 trading days.

ملاحظة

Lots still held

Lot 1 - 17.28

ملاحظة

I haven't forgotten about this trade - added another lot at the close for 10.89

Lots held

Lot 1 - 17.28
Lot 3 - 10.89

ملاحظة

Sold lot 3 at the close for 11.26 -- +3.4% in one trading day.

Lots held

Lot 1 - 17.28

ملاحظة

It hit 7.45 in after hours trading and as big a train wreck as this trade has been, I just couldn't resist any longer. I don't know if this is the bottom, but it feels like a) we're close and b) the whole market collapse is both overdone and in my opinion, utterly unwarranted, so I'm putting my money where my mouth is.

Lots held

Lot 1 - 17.28
Lot 4 - 7.45

ملاحظة

Still don't know if this is the bottom, but that last lot didn't wait to find out. The one bought after hours yesterday was sold in the pre-market today for 8.22. That's a +10.3% return in I guess zero trading days. I'll call it one day, though. Back to just the original stinker lot. The 3 add on trades of lots 2, 3, and 4 have cut the loss on the original lot by about half at this point.

Lots held:

Lot 1 - 17.28

ملاحظة

I'll be adding a lot at the open tomorrow morning. I'll update the lot price then. Looking for a quick 3-4% hopefully. I'll close intraday if I get that. This close to earnings, I won't wait to pull chips off the table.

ملاحظة

added at 9.10 this morning and then went for that wild ride down. not a positive sign to see it react that way after the IONQ report, but tomorrow is a new day.

Lots held:

Lot 1 - 17.28
Lot 5 - 9.10

ملاحظة

Yes this idea is still out here. No, I'm not happy about that. But I did get to sell lot 5 at the close today for 9.40. A 3.3% gain, but it took 34 days to get there. Not what I'm looking for, but I will always take a profit if I can get it. Lots 2-5 have done their job, netting a total combined gain of +25%, making the 45% loss in the original lot far more tolerable. Still no fun at this point, but this is not a terribly uncommon scenario. It almost always works out that lots 2+ get me back to break even in situations like this and then when lot 1 gets back to even it's profit city. Patience isn't my strongest suit, but trades like this one do a great job of teaching you patience and getting you to practice it.

Lots still held:

Lot 1 - 17.28

ملاحظة

Added lot 6 at the close today for 8.94. Selling that lot at 9.18 or first profitable close, whichever comes first.

Lots held:
Lot 1 - 17.28
Lot 6 - 8.94

ملاحظة

Sold lot 6 for 9.115 for a gain of +1.96% in 1 trading day.

Lots held:
Lot 1 - 17.28

ملاحظة

Added lot 7 at the close for 8.28

Lots held:
Lot 1 - 17.28
Lot 7 - 8.28

ملاحظة

forgot to add that I will sell lot 7 at 8.52 or on the first profitable daily close, whichever comes first.

ملاحظة

ah well. closed too early on this last lot, but that money will be put back to work somewhere else tomorrow. it does help to put into perspective what a 2.9% gain in less than one day represents, though.

in an average stock market year, that's about 3-1/2 to 4 months worth of stock gains. it's about 7 months worth of interest on a 30Y Treasury. and best of all, it's about 40 YEARS worth of interest at the national average checking account interest rate of 0.07% APY. another way of looking at that last one is that to make as much money in interest in a day as this trade did, it would take 15,000x as much money as this trade did. essentially, every $100 in that trade did the work of $1.5 million sitting in a checking account for a day. that's why I won't complain that I was taken out this quickly and could have made more. you can always make more. the key is not losing it.

Still holding lot 1 at 17.28, but I am only down a little over 19% overall - the wins have cancelled out more than half the losses on the original lot now and I have no more exposure now if it drops than I did on day 1 of the trade.

ملاحظة

Added (if my count is correct) lot 8 after hours for 9.87. It's a little bit of a daring move, given the market action, but it's a buy and I don't protest too much when it is. Not sure the drop is done, but if it is, or even takes a breather on Monday, this will get profitable quickly. At this point, I'm only down on the trade 5% overall when all the round-tripped lots are factored in, so it's relatively low risk. Plus, I now only have 2 lots of exposure out of my 5 lot limit. That's a plus as well. We'll see how it goes.

Lots held:
Lot 1 - 17.28
Lot 8 - 9.87

ملاحظة

Sold lot 8 at 10.45 at the close for a 1 day gain of 5.88%. Lots 2 through 8 have now combined for 35.68% in gains, while the original lot is down 39.53%. So while the stock is down almost 40%, I'm down just under 4% over all and am back to my original exposure.

ملاحظة

Added back the lot I sold yesterday at the close today at the close - but for a 9% discount.

Lots held
Lot 1 - 17.28
Lot 9 - 9.51

ملاحظة

Just sold lot 9 for 9.90 - a +4.10% gain in less than 45 minutes of market time. We'll call it 1 day for accounting purposes, though.

Lots still held
Lot 1 - 17.28

ملاحظة

Added lot 10 at the close at 9.05.

Lots held:
Lot 1 - 17.28
Lot 10 - 9.05

ملاحظة

Lot 10 was closed this morning at 9.36 for a 3.43% gain in 1 trading day.

Lots still held:

Lot 1 - 17.28

Update:

Lot 1 is still down almost 46% as I write this, but the other 9 lots bought and sold since have a combined return of +43%. Since equal dollar amounts are used for lots, I'm only down about 3% overall at this point. tbh, since I trade even numbers of shares (not fractional shares) and round up on subsequent lots, it's actually a little bit better than this. It is very comforting to know that what was now in retrospect a really poor entry point, is basically nullified and my effective cost basis is barely above where I'm at right now, while still only having my original exposure risk.

Traditional DCA is great, but at this point I would not be as close to break even as I am now AND I would have 10x as much capital at risk. That capital would have also been tied up for varying portions of the last 8 months waiting here and would be stuck here until my exit. Instead, that money was out sowing its wild oats and making me way more money per day than it would have just sitting here. This way, I get the best of both worlds - I get closer to overall profitability with every trade, and my capital can be out doing what it is supposed to be doing instead of kicking its feel up and relaxing here on vacation.

ملاحظة

Also added a lot here today at the close. This one is falling back away from profitablity, but I know that won't likely last forever. Same deal here as with the lot of CALM - it's gonna be gone quickly if it goes my way.

Lots held:
Lot 1 - 17.28
Lot 11 - 8.00

ملاحظة

Closed lot 11 at the open for 8.18 - a 1 day gain of +2.25%.

Original lot is down 52% but the 10 closed lots combined for a +45% return, so I'm only down about 7% here overall, with the same exposure I began with. I don't like how long this trade has lasted, or how many times I've had to be right since I entered it to be close to break even at this point, but it could be a LOT worse right now. I know what I'm doing here and how I"m doing it works, so it becomes just a question of time. Will the overall return beat the long term market return over the course of the entire trade? Time will tell. History says yes, but I'm digging out of a big hole here, so we'll see.

Lots held:

Lot 1 - 17.28

redwingcoach

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redwingcoach