HTF (4h) structure: RGNX suffered a catastrophic gap-down on May 14 from ~$10 to ~$6, establishing a new lower base. Since that flush, the stock has built a clear series of higher lows — $5.46 bottom mid-May, recovering to $7+, then a second leg higher beginning June 17 on heavy volume. The June 17 surge (from $7.18 to $8.55 intraday) was the first significant break above the post-crash consolidation range (~$6–$7.15), and that move has now accelerated today with a +32% gap on the FDA's NAVSUNLI reversal, confirming no additional studies needed before BLA resubmission. Today's open printed $8.52 with a high of $8.80 before pulling back to current ~$8.59, creating an early intraday flag after the gap. The LTF (1h) trigger: price gapped up strongly and is consolidating just below the $8.80 intraday high. A pullback entry near $8.60 (ask) offers exposure to continuation of the gap with a stop below the $7.81 opening low of today's candle, which is the clear invalidation — a close back below that level would signal the gap has fully faded and the catalyst is absorbed. The target is the $10.70 area, which represents the first meaningful HTF resistance cluster (post-crash distribution zone from early May, where the stock traded ~$10–$10.50 before the disaster). Risk is $0.95 (8.60–7.65), reward is $2.10 (10.70–8.60), giving an R/R of approximately 2.2. The FDA news is a genuine T1 catalyst directly aligned with the long side — path to accelerated approval for NAVSUNLI is a material binary event that has now resolved favorably. The AbbVie AMD data catalyst (Q4 2026, potential $100M milestone) adds a secondary tailwind within the swing horizon. Analysts maintain Buy/Overweight despite reduced price targets ($12–$26 range post-May sell-off), consistent with upside. Earnings on August 6 are 45 days out and outside a typical swing window. The market regime is long-leaning with strong breadth, supporting the directional bias. Invalidation: a reversal back below $7.81 would indicate today's gap is being sold aggressively and the setup is wrong.
📍 Entry: 8.60
🛑 Stop: 7.65
🎯 Target: 10.70
⚖️ R:R: 2.21
📍 Entry: 8.60
🛑 Stop: 7.65
🎯 Target: 10.70
⚖️ R:R: 2.21
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