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SpaceX: More Pain Ahead, or the Traditional IPO Trajectory?
SPCX is down 2.2% today to $136, sitting below its $150 IPO opening price and giving back the entire post-listing rally that took it to an all-time high of $225 just weeks ago. Price failed to reclaim the $160-180 midrange and has broken the stock's opening-low zone, with the next visible support levels sitting at $125 and then $100.
This isn't unusual for a mega-IPO , it's structural. Only around 5% of SpaceX's shares are currently floating. The rest unlock in stages: 20% after Q2 earnings (late July/August), 7% employee tranches every couple weeks through October, and a larger 28% release after Q3 earnings. Every one of those dates is a real supply event, and markets tend to price some of that pressure in before it even hits.
Palantir and Rocket Lab both ran the same script after their own debuts ; an early hype spike, a brutal multi-month drawdown as lockups and valuation reality collided, then a real base before any sustained move higher. The first chart rarely tells you where a stock actually settles.
Levels to watch: holding above $125 keeps this a normal post-IPO cooldown. A break below opens $100 as the next liquidity pool. Reclaiming $150+ would be the first real sign buyers are stepping back in.
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