Thesis
SPY continues to trade in a mature but intact bullish cycle, pushing to new all-time highs despite a heavy macro and event-driven calendar.
Context
- Weekly timeframe
- CPI, PPI, Jobless Claims ahead
- Start of key earnings season
- Supreme Court ruling delayed into next week, adding uncertainty
What I see
- Market printed another ATH and closed the week at the highs
- Price remains well above rising trend support
- No visible distribution or topping structure yet
- Momentum remains strong despite known macro risks
What matters now
- As long as price holds above the rising channel, the trend remains bullish
- Last CPI print came in much cooler than expected
- A second consecutive soft CPI would confirm a disinflation trend and likely fuel further upside
- Market is clearly not pricing near-term stress
Buy / Accumulation zone
- This is not an area for aggressive new buying
- Focus shifts from adding risk to managing and cleaning the portfolio
- Selectively trimming positions that fully rode the last 5–6 years of the cycle
Targets
- Trend-following extension remains open toward higher Fib projections
- No confirmed cycle top yet
Risk / Invalidation
- A sustained loss of the rising channel would signal the need to reduce exposure
- Until then, price action favors holding, not anticipating a top
SPY continues to trade in a mature but intact bullish cycle, pushing to new all-time highs despite a heavy macro and event-driven calendar.Context
- Weekly timeframe
- CPI, PPI, Jobless Claims ahead
- Start of key earnings season
- Supreme Court ruling delayed into next week, adding uncertainty
What I see
- Market printed another ATH and closed the week at the highs
- Price remains well above rising trend support
- No visible distribution or topping structure yet
- Momentum remains strong despite known macro risks
What matters now
- As long as price holds above the rising channel, the trend remains bullish
- Last CPI print came in much cooler than expected
- A second consecutive soft CPI would confirm a disinflation trend and likely fuel further upside
- Market is clearly not pricing near-term stress
Buy / Accumulation zone
- This is not an area for aggressive new buying
- Focus shifts from adding risk to managing and cleaning the portfolio
- Selectively trimming positions that fully rode the last 5–6 years of the cycle
Targets
- Trend-following extension remains open toward higher Fib projections
- No confirmed cycle top yet
Risk / Invalidation
- A sustained loss of the rising channel would signal the need to reduce exposure
- Until then, price action favors holding, not anticipating a top
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.