بيع على المكشوف

تم تحديثه

SPY-SHORT-UPDATE

SPY has completed a 5 wave sequence.

-Wave 1 & Wave 5 Extended

-Correction Wave B went above the terminal point of Wave 5.

-Elliot calls this an irregular correction and can be subject to "Double Retracement". Double Retracement corrects Wave 5 and then the whole wave sequence.

I don't think we could see a double retracement due to economic conditions.

Chart:

Catalyst:

1. White House
2. Geo-politics

Will update.

-AB

ملاحظة

Potential Headline Catalyst Down:

1. Kavanaugh
2. Mueller
3. Midterms
4. Big Tech - Breaking News about Data Collection methods by FB, TWTR, and Google.

ملاحظة

Irregular corrections usually appear after wave 5 of a cycle, and would correct the entire five waves according to Elliott’s approach to this phenomenon. The first move after the end of wave 5 would be a three wave affair and is labeled as Wave A. The Wave B that follows will also be in three sub waves but the price will exceed the top of Wave 5. Thereafter, we will get a normal Wave C made up of five sub waves.

ملاحظة

Wave 5 extension= 16.47%

ملاحظة

A bad storm is brewing.

ملاحظة

Prior Super Cycle Correction was a Flat.

ملاحظة

We are in the beginning of a new Super Cycle.

ملاحظة

Other headline catalyst:

-FISA Declassifiation

ملاحظة

Implemented an Put option strategy to protect portfolio.

ملاحظة

Looking ready to drop...

ملاحظة

New Headline about to drop?

ملاحظة

Narratives matter...

ملاحظة

These Sub-Waves will provide the bigger picture.

Extending S-3?

ملاحظة

Wave C needs 5 Sub-Waves to be completed.

ملاحظة

Wave Analysis and Fibonacci are used the same when going down.

ملاحظة

Extending Sub-Wave 3

ملاحظة

Reminder: Extending Waves = Impossible to know what level they stop.

ملاحظة

4.618 is a key level for me.

ملاحظة

If we break 4.618, support starts around $250.

ملاحظة

So far, not good sub-wave 3 traveled over 320% of S1 & S2.

ملاحظة

Double Retrace:

1. Retrace Extension
2. 5th Wave Sequence

ملاحظة

No signs of finding support...

ملاحظة

Reminder: Wave A & Wave B Sub-Wave were both shown in the WEEKLY chart!

ملاحظة

We are clearly at an inflection point in history.

Do we continue with an old Fiat money system?

Do we continue to let a privately held bank govern monetary policy?

ملاحظة

What caused the last ‘recession’?

ملاحظة

“The real cause of the Great Recession lay not in the housing market but in the misguided monetary policy of the Federal Reserve” -

“The Fed can control NGDP through its monetary policy, and as NGDP fell in 2008, the Fed should have lowered interest rates rapidly. If that proved insufficient, it should have increased the money supply through quantitative easing. Instead, the Fed, terrified of inflation, kept interest rates too high for too long—causing NGDP to fall even further.” -

Source: ForeignAffairs.com

ملاحظة

Bogey Man - Inflation

ملاحظة

If 270 is broken, next stop is 250.

ملاحظة

Still got more to go...

ملاحظة

S3 Extended

Wave A was 3

ملاحظة

Friday: Correction Sequence

Monday: S5

ملاحظة

66 Days to form Wave A

ملاحظة

170 days to form Wave B

ملاحظة

$240 looks to be the Terminal Point of the correction.

ملاحظة

Correction will not be completed until AFTER 2019.

ملاحظة

Best SHORT: wait till S2 completes and short higher degree Wave 3

ملاحظة

Clarification: Correction will not be completed until Jan. 2019.

ملاحظة

Wave 2 Terminal projection: $288

ملاحظة

S1Terminal Projection: $273

ملاحظة

Timeframe:

ملاحظة

S5 Complete: Oct. 18

ملاحظة

Yellow = Lower Degree
Teal = Higher Degree

ملاحظة

We need to watch higher degree Wave 5 very carefully and be on watch for "Double Retracement."

ملاحظة

Don’t fall for the head-fake

ملاحظة

S5 still needs to be completed

ملاحظة

S=sub-waves

ملاحظة

Here comes the reversal...

ملاحظة

Not sure what the headline will be or maybe it’s an earnings report but this will fade in After-Hours

ملاحظة

Netflix? Pop and Drop?

ملاحظة

Will Netflix pop hold?

ملاحظة

Netflix is still in a Correction...

ملاحظة

Here comes wave 2 back up

ملاحظة

Sub-Wave 5 hit target exactly

ملاحظة

I would use this rally to exit any positions you don't want to hold before Wave 3 down begins...

ملاحظة

Wait till $282 then Short.

ملاحظة

Looks like we WILL see Double Retracement

ملاحظة

Wave 1:
Sub-Wave 3 Extended
Sub-Wave 5 Extended

ملاحظة

Wave 5 Extension Target is between $259 & $255

ملاحظة

Double Retrace is in Play

ملاحظة

Don't Sell here! Wait for Wave 2 to get out of any position you don't want to hold.

ملاحظة

Pretty Confident Wave 1 is complete...

ملاحظة

Indicators look good

ملاحظة

.618 is the Key Hurdle

ملاحظة

Election Day?

ملاحظة

5th Wave will be a big test...

ملاحظة

Complex Correction implies a strong move higher.

ملاحظة

$284 is a key level.

ملاحظة

Starting to fail...

ملاحظة

Watch for the reversal

ملاحظة

Wave 2 hit target almost exactly...

ملاحظة

Target was $282.

ملاحظة

Above: The Turn.

ملاحظة

SPX Chart is a little scary!

We have clearly completed Waves 1, 2, 3, and 4.

We are in the 5th Wave...

The question is are we more towards the beginning of Wave 5 or more towards the end?

ملاحظة

Above in Pink shows the most recent Wave Sequence.

ملاحظة

260-250 are Critical Levels

If Broken look to 210 for support...

ملاحظة

S1 is going to be tested.

ملاحظة

Doesn’t look good...

ملاحظة

Note Wave A.

Wave C needs 5 sub-waves.

ملاحظة

Very inclined to double retrace...

Probably nothing will be safe...

ملاحظة

Sub-Wave 5 is a tell to double retrace...

ملاحظة

If Sub-Wave 5 breaks S1 & S2 in meaningful way we will likely see new lows.

ملاحظة

Buckle up...

New Lows imminent...

ملاحظة

Wave C Time Est. = 210 days...

ملاحظة

Shaping up to be a real blood bath...

ملاحظة

What brand new market is forming?

Where is the money going?

ملاحظة

$218 Target for Double Retrace

ملاحظة

Russell MAY be ok...HOLD

MJ Stocks MAY be ok...HOLD

TSLA looks ok..BUY

Inverse short ETF...

Inverse Correlation SPY equities:

1. Micro Cap Equities
2. Some Biotech
3. Blockchain/Digital

ملاحظة

Zombie/Corrupt Companies must either fail or clean house

ملاحظة

Fed?

ملاحظة

On life support?

ملاحظة

Fed engineered economic collapses instead of expansions...FACT

ملاحظة

If I’m right about SPX (All-Time Chart) we can go a lot lower than 218.

ملاحظة

$1,338...

ملاحظة

Wish I could make this more digestible but...it is looking pretty bad!

ملاحظة

The ONE glimmer of hope...

Sub-Wave 1 Extended (Yellow Box)

ملاحظة

Sub-Wave 2 only retraced .382 of Sub-Wave 1, could this imply the higher degree wave will extend as well? Possible.

ملاحظة

Think I solved it...

.382 = $2,056.93

ملاحظة

Yea, very high degree of confidence $2,056.93 will be the bottom.

ملاحظة

If .382 Fails we will see $1,338.

The World is Changing...

FAST!

ملاحظة

Strongly encourage portfolio protection or move to the side lines...

ملاحظة

Indicators: All ugly...

ملاحظة

Volume Disappearing?

Makes you wonder...

ملاحظة

Current support (Green Spirals)

When they break, the market will take sharp leg lower....

ملاحظة

Closing Idea...

Please visit most recent idea...

تم إغلاق الصفقة يدويًا

أغلقت الصفقة: تم الوصول للهدف

FibMarketWatch

أيضا على:

منشورات ذات صلة

SPY - SELL - BUY PUTS

من ‎FibMarketWatch‎

إخلاء المسؤولية

لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.

FibMarketWatch

أيضا على:

منشورات ذات صلة

SPY - SELL - BUY PUTS

من ‎FibMarketWatch‎