What's up traders! 👋
The Nasdaq 100 is EXPLODING right now at $25,357 after a massive rally! We've got INSANE bullish momentum from Nvidia earnings, AI sentiment shift, and tech sector recovery. But the question is: Do we continue to $26,000+, or do we get a healthy pullback to the FVG at $25,100-$25,300 before the next leg up? Let me break down what's happening on the 45-minute chart and why the next move could be MASSIVE.
The Setup
US 100 is trading at $25,357 after SURGING from the $24,100-$24,700 support zone. Price is testing resistance at $25,400-$25,600 (red zone) with EXPLOSIVE momentum. We've got two scenarios: breakout continuation OR healthy pullback to FVG (Fair Value Gap) at $25,100-$25,300 before resuming uptrend.
The big question: Does this break above $25,600 for a run to $26,000+, or do we get a pullback to fill the FVG at $25,100-$25,300 before the next leg up?
Why This Setup Matters
- EXPLOSIVE rally from $24,100 to $25,357 (INSANE momentum)
- NVIDIA EARNINGS: Beat expectations, +64% Q1 revenue forecast
- Nasdaq +1.41% today (tech sector leading)
- AI sentiment shift: Partnerships > Disruption fears
- Software stocks rallied (Anthropic partnerships)
- Testing resistance at $25,400-$25,600 (red zone)
- FVG (Fair Value Gap) at $25,100-$25,300 (potential retest)
- Ascending trendlines supporting (purple lines)
- South Korea Kospi +45% YTD, +2% today (AI infrastructure)
- Japan Nikkei +2.2% (AI capex theme)
- Cathie Wood: AI = productivity boom, not disruption
The News Context - February 25, 2026
This is where it gets EXPLOSIVE - fundamentals are MASSIVELY bullish but overbought:
Bullish catalysts (DOMINANT):
- NVIDIA EARNINGS (after hours): BEAT expectations
- Q4 revenue: $66B (68% jump, beat estimates)
- Q1 forecast: $72B (64% jump, above expectations)
- 13 consecutive quarters beating estimates
- AI capex torrent: Chips, data centers, energy
- Nvidia shares initially +4% after hours (then dipped)
- NASDAQ +1.41% today, S&P 500 +0.81%
- AI SENTIMENT SHIFT: Partnerships > Disruption
- Anthropic partnerships with software companies
- Software stocks rallied (not just disruption fears)
- IBM +3.58% (recovered from Monday's -13% panic)
- Cathie Wood: AI = productivity boom, entrepreneurial explosion
- ARK: AI = real GDP growth acceleration, lower inflation
- South Korea Kospi +45% YTD, +2% today (AI infrastructure)
- Japan Nikkei +2.2% (AI capex beneficiaries)
- Yuan strengthened (China demand for AI chips)
- Trump: Big Tech must build own power plants (AI infrastructure)
- Trump: $1,000 to non-401k Americans (flows to stocks)
- Ascending trendlines supporting rally
Bearish/Risk factors:
- NVIDIA shares dipped after initial +4% (profit-taking)
- Nvidia CFO: "Supply-demand equilibrium" (removes wishful dynamic)
- Nvidia inventory grew despite commitments
- Chinese sales uncertain (government restrictions)
- Nvidia revenue growth SLOWING (68% vs prior quarters)
- Competition rising: Alphabet, AMD custom chips
- Bar to impress rising (expectations high)
- Options market: +/- 5% swing ($230B market cap)
- Salesforce -4.6% after hours (weak FY2027 guidance)
- Enterprise software demand under pressure
- AI disruption concerns persist (Citrini Research)
- Workday -10% (HR tasks targeted by Anthropic)
- US-Iran nuclear talks Thursday (geopolitical risk)
- FVG at $25,100-$25,300 unfilled (technical pullback likely)
- Overbought conditions (INSANE rally from $24,100)
Key Levels I'm Watching
Resistance:
- $25,400-$25,600 - CRITICAL RESISTANCE / Red zone / Current test
- $26,000 - PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL / Major resistance
- $26,500 - Extended target if breakout continues
- $27,000 - Major resistance zone
Support:
- $25,357 - Current price
- $25,300 - FVG upper bound / Immediate support
- $25,100-$25,300 - FVG ZONE (Fair Value Gap / retest target)
- $25,000 - PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL / Strong support
- $24,700 - Ascending trendline support
- $24,100-$24,700 - MAJOR SUPPORT ZONE / Green zone / Demand area
- $24,000 - Extended support if breakdown
Pattern Analysis - Explosive Rally with FVG
Price is in an EXPLOSIVE rally with a Fair Value Gap (FVG) that could be retested:
- Rally: $24,100 → $25,357 (INSANE momentum)
- FVG: $25,100-$25,300 (imbalance created during rapid move)
- Current: Testing resistance at $25,400-$25,600
- Ascending trendlines: Purple lines supporting rally
- Volume: Explosive buying pressure
- Two scenarios: Breakout continuation OR FVG retest
The key is whether we break above $25,600 for continuation, or pull back to fill the FVG at $25,100-$25,300 before the next leg up.
Two Scenarios - EQUALLY WEIGHTED
SCENARIO 1: Breakout Continuation (50% probability)
Price breaks above $25,600 resistance with volume, targets $26,000-$26,500.
- Break above $25,400-$25,600 resistance
- Reclaim $26,000 psychological level
- Target 1: $26,500 (extended target)
- Target 2: $27,000 (major resistance)
Triggers:
- Nvidia earnings momentum continues (AI capex theme)
- AI sentiment shift accelerates (partnerships > disruption)
- Software stocks continue rally
- Cathie Wood narrative wins (productivity boom)
- South Korea/Japan AI infrastructure theme spreads
- Trump $1,000 payments flow to stocks
- US-Iran talks succeed (risk-on)
- No FVG retest (momentum too strong)
This aligns with:
- Explosive rally momentum
- Nvidia beat expectations
- AI sentiment shift (partnerships)
- Cathie Wood productivity boom narrative
- Global AI infrastructure theme
- Ascending trendlines support
- Tech sector leadership
SCENARIO 2: FVG Retest Then Long (50% probability)
Price pulls back to fill FVG at $25,100-$25,300, then resumes uptrend to $26,000+.
- Rejection at $25,400-$25,600 resistance
- Pullback to FVG $25,100-$25,300 (fill imbalance)
- Strong defense at FVG = long opportunity
- Resume uptrend, break $25,600, target $26,000-$26,500
Triggers:
- Profit-taking after INSANE rally
- Nvidia shares dipped after initial +4% (caution)
- Nvidia CFO "equilibrium" comment (removes wishful dynamic)
- Salesforce weak guidance (enterprise software pressure)
- Overbought conditions (need healthy pullback)
- FVG needs to be filled (technical requirement)
- US-Iran talks Thursday (wait-and-see)
- Geopolitical risk (caution before talks)
This would be a HEALTHY pullback to fill the imbalance before continuation. The FVG at $25,100-$25,300 is a high-probability retest zone. The ascending trendline at $24,700 and support at $24,100-$24,700 provide strong downside protection.
Nvidia Earnings - Beat But Mixed Reaction
The Numbers:
- Q4 revenue: $66 BILLION (68% jump, beat estimates)
- Q1 forecast: $72 BILLION (64% jump, above expectations)
- 13 consecutive quarters beating estimates
- Profit higher than expected
- AI-fueled demand for advanced chips
The Reaction:
- Shares initially +4% after hours
- Then DIPPED back (profit-taking)
- Mixed reaction to CFO comments
- "Supply-demand equilibrium" = removes wishful dynamic
- Inventory grew despite commitments
- Chinese sales uncertain
Why This Matters:
- Nvidia = bellwether for tech sector and AI theme
- Beat expectations BUT reaction mixed
- "Equilibrium" comment = psychological headwind
- No more supply shortage narrative (less FOMO)
- Competition rising (Alphabet, AMD)
- Revenue growth slowing (68% vs prior quarters)
- Bar to impress rising (expectations high)
Market Impact:
MIXED. Nvidia beat expectations, which is bullish. But the CFO's "equilibrium" comment and inventory growth suggest the supply shortage narrative is over. The initial +4% then dip shows profit-taking. This could trigger a healthy pullback to FVG before the next leg up.
AI Sentiment Shift - Partnerships > Disruption
What Changed:
- Monday: AI disruption panic (software -25% YTD)
- IBM -13%, Workday -10%, cybersecurity selloff
- Tuesday: Software stocks RALLIED
- Focus shifted to Anthropic PARTNERSHIPS
- Companies may survive and thrive WITH AI
- Rethink of selloff extent
Cathie Wood vs Citrini:
- Citrini: AI = 10.2% unemployment, S&P 500 -38% by 2028
- Cathie Wood: AI = productivity boom, entrepreneurial explosion
- ARK: AI = real GDP growth acceleration, lower inflation
- Wood: Short-term disruptions → great opportunities
- Market choosing Wood's narrative (for now)
Market Impact:
BULLISH short-term. The sentiment shift from "AI disruption" to "AI partnerships" is driving the rally. Software stocks recovered. But the Citrini concerns persist - Workday -10% shows disruption fears are real. This is a tug-of-war between two narratives.
Global AI Infrastructure Theme - South Korea, Japan
The Data:
- South Korea Kospi: +45% YTD, +2% today
- Japan Nikkei: +2.2% today
- Focus: AI capex benefiting infrastructure companies
- Chips, data centers, energy demand
- Yuan strengthened (China AI chip demand)
Why This Matters:
- Global AI infrastructure buildout accelerating
- Not just U.S. - Asia leading
- South Korea +45% YTD = INSANE
- Companies aiding AI infrastructure outperforming
- Validates Nvidia's AI capex narrative
Market Impact:
MASSIVELY BULLISH. The global AI infrastructure theme is REAL. South Korea +45% YTD shows the scale of the opportunity. This supports Nvidia's earnings and the broader tech rally.
FVG (Fair Value Gap) - Technical Retest Likely
What is FVG:
- Fair Value Gap = imbalance created during rapid price move
- Price moved too fast, leaving gap at $25,100-$25,300
- Markets often return to fill these gaps
- High-probability retest zone
Why FVG Retest Likely:
- INSANE rally from $24,100 to $25,357 (too fast)
- Overbought conditions (need healthy pullback)
- Nvidia mixed reaction (profit-taking)
- Salesforce weak guidance (enterprise software pressure)
- US-Iran talks Thursday (wait-and-see caution)
- Technical requirement to fill imbalance
Trading Strategy:
- If pullback to FVG $25,100-$25,300 = LONG opportunity
- Strong defense at FVG = high-probability long
- Stops below $25,000 psychological level
- Target: $26,000-$26,500 after FVG fill
Salesforce Weak Guidance - Enterprise Software Pressure
What Happened:
- Salesforce -4.6% after hours
- FY2027 revenue guidance: $45.80B-$46.20B
- Midpoint below estimates ($46.06B)
- Bumper quarterly earnings BUT weak outlook
- Enterprise software demand under pressure
Why This Matters:
- Shows AI disruption concerns are REAL
- Enterprise software facing headwinds
- Economic growth uncertainty
- AI industry disruptions
- Not all tech is benefiting from AI
Market Impact:
BEARISH for enterprise software, but NEUTRAL for Nasdaq 100. Salesforce weakness shows AI disruption is real for some sectors. But the Nasdaq is driven by Nvidia, semiconductors, and AI infrastructure - not enterprise software.
My Game Plan
50/50 scenario: I'm NEUTRAL here with equal weight to both scenarios. On one hand, the momentum is INSANE (rally from $24,100 to $25,357). Nvidia beat expectations. AI sentiment shifted to partnerships. Cathie Wood's productivity boom narrative is winning. Global AI infrastructure theme (South Korea +45% YTD) is REAL. On the other hand, Nvidia's mixed reaction (initial +4% then dip), CFO "equilibrium" comment, Salesforce weak guidance, and the FVG at $25,100-$25,300 suggest a healthy pullback is likely.
Breakout scenario (50%): If we break $25,600 with volume, I'm targeting $26,000-$26,500. The AI infrastructure theme is too strong. Nvidia beat expectations. Global momentum (South Korea, Japan) supports continuation.
FVG retest scenario (50%): If we get rejected at $25,600, I'm watching for a pullback to FVG $25,100-$25,300. This would be a HEALTHY retest to fill the imbalance. I'd look to long at FVG with stops below $25,000. The ascending trendline at $24,700 provides strong support.
Key level: $25,600 resistance. Break = long to $26,000+. Reject = FVG retest at $25,100-$25,300, then long.
The Bottom Line
I'm giving this a 50/50 setup - EQUALLY WEIGHTED scenarios:
Bullish factors (breakout):
- INSANE rally momentum ($24,100 → $25,357)
- Nvidia beat expectations (AI capex theme)
- AI sentiment shift (partnerships > disruption)
- Cathie Wood productivity boom narrative
- Global AI infrastructure (South Korea +45% YTD)
- Ascending trendlines support
- Tech sector leadership
Bearish factors (FVG retest):
- Nvidia mixed reaction (initial +4% then dip)
- CFO "equilibrium" comment (removes wishful dynamic)
- Salesforce weak guidance (enterprise software pressure)
- FVG at $25,100-$25,300 unfilled (technical requirement)
- Overbought conditions (need healthy pullback)
- US-Iran talks Thursday (wait-and-see)
- Profit-taking after INSANE rally
The $25,600 resistance is KEY. Break above = long to $26,000-$26,500. Reject = FVG retest at $25,100-$25,300, then long from there.
Either way, the trend is UP. The question is: Do we go straight up, or do we get a healthy pullback to FVG first?
What do you think? Breakout or FVG retest? Drop your take! 👇
If this helped, smash that 🚀 Boost button!
Not financial advice. DYOR.
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لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.