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Yen strengthened followed BoJ maintained interest rate unchanged
The BoJ maintained the policy rate at 0.75% today but delivered a hawkish signal as the number of governors voting for a hike increased to 3 from 1. Due to the recent oil price spike following the Strait of Hormuz closure, the BoJ lowered the 2026 GDP growth projection to 0.5% from 1.0% and raised the inflation forecast to 2.8% YoY (prev. 1.9% YoY). Surging inflation forces the BoJ to balance cost pressures against economic growth, as the central bank aims to drive consumer sentiment and foster stable demand-pull inflation rather than the current cost-push pressure.
Clouded Middle East negotiations keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, maintaining elevated oil prices that might pressure Japanese household spending. Given the hawkish signal, the yen may find further support amid high volatility related to the progress of Middle East peace talks.
Technically, USDJPY fell below both EMAs following the rate decision, signaling potential bearish momentum. If USDJPY holds below EMA78, the price may find support at 158.6; conversely, if USDJPY rebounds above both EMAs, the price may test the 159.8 resistance level.
By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Strategist at Exness.
Clouded Middle East negotiations keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, maintaining elevated oil prices that might pressure Japanese household spending. Given the hawkish signal, the yen may find further support amid high volatility related to the progress of Middle East peace talks.
Technically, USDJPY fell below both EMAs following the rate decision, signaling potential bearish momentum. If USDJPY holds below EMA78, the price may find support at 158.6; conversely, if USDJPY rebounds above both EMAs, the price may test the 159.8 resistance level.
By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Strategist at Exness.
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