Fed Just Opened the Door — USDJPY Could Bleed Hard!!
Hey Traders, in today’s session we are monitoring USDJPY for a selling opportunity around the 156.300 zone. The pair continues to trade within a broader downtrend, and price is now retracing toward a key trend + S/R confluence at 156.300 — an area that has consistently acted as a supply zone for sellers.
Technical Structure
USDJPY remains in a bearish market structure (lower highs / lower lows).
Current pullback is approaching the 156.300 correction zone, where downside continuation becomes highly probable.
Dollar Macro Backdrop: Perfect Storm for USD Weakness
On the other side, DXY broke below its uptrend and is now pulling back toward the 98.800 retracement zone, confirming a broader shift in momentum.
The fundamentals are even more compelling:
1. The Fed did cut yesterday — 25bps.
This reinforces a clear dovish turn, and historically the USD underperforms aggressively in the weeks following the first cut of a new cycle.
2. The Fed's balance sheet is expanding again.
An expanding balance sheet = USD bearish liquidity environment.
3. The January FOMC is currently NOT priced for a cut — and that’s the opportunity.
The market is underpricing the risk of back-to-back cuts.
Now labor market data becomes the main catalyst.
And the reality is:
If we get any sign of further labor market weakness — which is increasingly likely — the market will start pricing in a January cut very fast.
And that leaves MUCH more room for USD weakness across the board.
Trade Focus
Monitoring price reaction at 156.300 for a bearish continuation setup.
If DXY resumes weakness out of 98.800 and labor data disappoints, USDJPY could accelerate aggressively to the downside.
Trade safe,
Joe.
Technical Structure
USDJPY remains in a bearish market structure (lower highs / lower lows).
Current pullback is approaching the 156.300 correction zone, where downside continuation becomes highly probable.
Dollar Macro Backdrop: Perfect Storm for USD Weakness
On the other side, DXY broke below its uptrend and is now pulling back toward the 98.800 retracement zone, confirming a broader shift in momentum.
The fundamentals are even more compelling:
1. The Fed did cut yesterday — 25bps.
This reinforces a clear dovish turn, and historically the USD underperforms aggressively in the weeks following the first cut of a new cycle.
2. The Fed's balance sheet is expanding again.
An expanding balance sheet = USD bearish liquidity environment.
3. The January FOMC is currently NOT priced for a cut — and that’s the opportunity.
The market is underpricing the risk of back-to-back cuts.
Now labor market data becomes the main catalyst.
And the reality is:
If we get any sign of further labor market weakness — which is increasingly likely — the market will start pricing in a January cut very fast.
And that leaves MUCH more room for USD weakness across the board.
Trade Focus
Monitoring price reaction at 156.300 for a bearish continuation setup.
If DXY resumes weakness out of 98.800 and labor data disappoints, USDJPY could accelerate aggressively to the downside.
Trade safe,
Joe.
تم فتح الصفقة
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Free Telegram Group:
t.me/+0LGgMsgX9TViOGZk
The 1% Traders Club:
t.me/+dMaf68BK5c5hZDA8
t.me/+0LGgMsgX9TViOGZk
The 1% Traders Club:
t.me/+dMaf68BK5c5hZDA8
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.