A rebound is a selling point, not a reversal signal.
OIL closed at $110.89 yesterday, but everything changed overnight.
The reason is simple: the US and Iran suddenly reached a two-week ceasefire agreement. Trump announced a suspension of military action against Iran less than an hour and a half before the deadline, and Iran agreed to allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz during this period.
The market reacted immediately—the previously soaring geopolitical premium was quickly wiped out. Previously, Iran had almost completely blocked the Strait, causing OPEC+ daily production to plummet by 7.56 million barrels, the largest drop in forty years. Now, with this sudden reversal, long positions betting on supply disruptions were dumped en masse.
Today's technical picture is very bad.
The price broke below the 200-hour moving average—the bottom of the upward channel of the previous two weeks has been breached, confirming the bearish signal.
The MACD continues to diverge below the zero line, with the negative histogram lengthening, indicating that bearish momentum has not weakened.
The RSI once fell to around 18—extremely oversold.
In short: A rebound is a selling point, not a reversal signal. Any upward movement into the $98-$100 range will encounter strong selling pressure.
USOIL USOIL USOIL USOIL USOIL
The reason is simple: the US and Iran suddenly reached a two-week ceasefire agreement. Trump announced a suspension of military action against Iran less than an hour and a half before the deadline, and Iran agreed to allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz during this period.
The market reacted immediately—the previously soaring geopolitical premium was quickly wiped out. Previously, Iran had almost completely blocked the Strait, causing OPEC+ daily production to plummet by 7.56 million barrels, the largest drop in forty years. Now, with this sudden reversal, long positions betting on supply disruptions were dumped en masse.
Today's technical picture is very bad.
The price broke below the 200-hour moving average—the bottom of the upward channel of the previous two weeks has been breached, confirming the bearish signal.
The MACD continues to diverge below the zero line, with the negative histogram lengthening, indicating that bearish momentum has not weakened.
The RSI once fell to around 18—extremely oversold.
In short: A rebound is a selling point, not a reversal signal. Any upward movement into the $98-$100 range will encounter strong selling pressure.
USOIL USOIL USOIL USOIL USOIL تم فتح الصفقة
Friday is a crucial window – US CPI data, consumer confidence index, and the Islamabad-Iran talks all fall on the same day; any one of these variables could trigger a second wave of sharp fluctuations in oil prices. The short-term strategy is primarily to sell on rallies, but caution is advised when shorting. If negotiations unexpectedly break down, the bearish logic will reverse instantly, and positions need to be adjusted in a timely manner.
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.