Bias: SHORT
Price is failing to reclaim any of the internal highs (29,842 / 30,054 / 30,320), confirming that the recent structure has shifted bearish. The rejection from the breaker block (29,380–29,510) — sitting just below the 200EMA — was the key confirmation that sellers are back in control.
Why short:
- No reclaim of internal highs = bearish structure intact
- Breaker block held as resistance, not support
- Price is now trading below the 200EMA, reinforcing downside momentum
- Liquidity resting below (SSL) is the next natural draw
Targets (TP):
1. 28,544 — SSL (sell-side liquidity)
2. 28,186 — Major bull structure support
3. 26,790 — Discount target (final objective)
❌ INVALIDATION:
A confirmed reclaim of the breaker block, paired with a close back above at least one internal high, would signal a Market Structure Shift (MSS) back to bullish — invalidating this bearish outlook.
SUMMARY:
As long as price stays below the breaker/200EMA, the path of least resistance is down toward the discount zone, with liquidity sweeps likely along the way.
A reclaim of structure would flip this bias.
Trade Safe- Manage Your Risk
Kwagga.
Price is failing to reclaim any of the internal highs (29,842 / 30,054 / 30,320), confirming that the recent structure has shifted bearish. The rejection from the breaker block (29,380–29,510) — sitting just below the 200EMA — was the key confirmation that sellers are back in control.
Why short:
- No reclaim of internal highs = bearish structure intact
- Breaker block held as resistance, not support
- Price is now trading below the 200EMA, reinforcing downside momentum
- Liquidity resting below (SSL) is the next natural draw
Targets (TP):
1. 28,544 — SSL (sell-side liquidity)
2. 28,186 — Major bull structure support
3. 26,790 — Discount target (final objective)
❌ INVALIDATION:
A confirmed reclaim of the breaker block, paired with a close back above at least one internal high, would signal a Market Structure Shift (MSS) back to bullish — invalidating this bearish outlook.
SUMMARY:
As long as price stays below the breaker/200EMA, the path of least resistance is down toward the discount zone, with liquidity sweeps likely along the way.
A reclaim of structure would flip this bias.
Trade Safe- Manage Your Risk
Kwagga.
ملاحظة
Big Bull 4H Candle: Price @ OB - IF FVG holds Price might continue to chase Previous Week High and Invalidate my BEAR outlook.
IF OB rejects the Bulls we might still see LL's (BEARISH) developing.
ملاحظة
That is why I did not indicate the obvious Sell OB first... the "THE BREAKER" is better positioned to act as just that, a "GATE or CONFLUENCE". ملاحظة
The 4H candle is already filled - It was a liquidity sweep.
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إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.