Honestly this setup is one of the cleaner ones I've seen in a while on Gold. We've been in a full distribution since April — every ChoCH on the way down was just smart money reloading shorts, and now we've printed a clean 5-wave impulse into the 4,453 area. Sell-side has been swept twice already, wave 3 and wave 5 both tagged that zone. That's not coincidence — that's the kind of liquidity grab that precedes a corrective move, not a reversal.
Here's the play: I'm expecting an ABC correction to push price back up into supply before this thing rolls over again. The FVG sitting at 4,580–4,610 is the first speed bump — if price reacts there and stalls, I want to see how it closes on H4 before committing. If it pushes through, the real target is the OB at 4,700–4,730. That's where I'm watching for a short setup. The 0.618 fib at 4,607 lines up almost perfectly with the top of the FVG, so that whole area is a serious decision zone.
Bias stays bearish. Descending channel from April is still intact, DXY is worth watching as confluence, and nothing in the structure has shifted bullish yet. The only thing that changes my mind is a clean 4H close below 4,453 — at that point the bounce thesis is dead and we're in freefall.
Are you waiting for the OB rejection to short, or playing the FVG reaction first?
Here's the play: I'm expecting an ABC correction to push price back up into supply before this thing rolls over again. The FVG sitting at 4,580–4,610 is the first speed bump — if price reacts there and stalls, I want to see how it closes on H4 before committing. If it pushes through, the real target is the OB at 4,700–4,730. That's where I'm watching for a short setup. The 0.618 fib at 4,607 lines up almost perfectly with the top of the FVG, so that whole area is a serious decision zone.
Bias stays bearish. Descending channel from April is still intact, DXY is worth watching as confluence, and nothing in the structure has shifted bullish yet. The only thing that changes my mind is a clean 4H close below 4,453 — at that point the bounce thesis is dead and we're in freefall.
Are you waiting for the OB rejection to short, or playing the FVG reaction first?
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