Bearish Continuation toward 4374?
Momentum Analysis
– D1 Timeframe: Momentum is currently overlapping and consolidating. We are on the 10th day of the current bearish leg. Following the volatility on day 8, we anticipate a decisive trend confirmation by day 13 (early next week).
– H4 Timeframe: Momentum is drifting higher, but price action lacks bullish conviction. We expect the 5th candle to push H4 into the Overbought zone, signaling a potential bearish reversal.
– H1 Timeframe: Approaching Oversold territory, suggesting a minor corrective bounce is imminent to neutralize the immediate selling pressure.
Elliott Wave Structure
– D1 Outlook: The primary count oscillates between a Contracting Triangle and a Complex Corrective (WXY) structure. In the WXY scenario, a breakdown below the Wave C low is expected. A sharp impulsive move above the upper boundary would serve as an Invalidation Point.
– H4 Outlook: The WXY structure is in progress. While the $Y = W$ target at 4513 was hit, the lack of a strong rebound suggests further weakness. If the current bounce fails and prints a lower low, the $Y = 1.618W$ extension at 4374 becomes the primary objective.
– H1 Outlook: Overlapping extensions are creating complexity. Following an ABC corrective bounce, we look for a bearish continuation. Patience is required until H4 momentum reaches Overbought levels to align with the higher timeframe bias.
Execution Plan
– Trade Setup: Looking for a Sell setup based on Confluence between H4/H1 Overbought cycles and M15 structure break.
– Liquidity Zone: 4573
– Sell Zone: 4570 – 4574
– Stop Loss: 4592
– Take Profit (TP): 4512 | 4473 | 4412
– Observation: The 4376 area is identified as a high-probability Buy Zone if the Y wave completes as an extension.
Disclaimer: Trading Forex and Gold involves significant risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only.
Momentum Analysis
– D1 Timeframe: Momentum is currently overlapping and consolidating. We are on the 10th day of the current bearish leg. Following the volatility on day 8, we anticipate a decisive trend confirmation by day 13 (early next week).
– H4 Timeframe: Momentum is drifting higher, but price action lacks bullish conviction. We expect the 5th candle to push H4 into the Overbought zone, signaling a potential bearish reversal.
– H1 Timeframe: Approaching Oversold territory, suggesting a minor corrective bounce is imminent to neutralize the immediate selling pressure.
Elliott Wave Structure
– D1 Outlook: The primary count oscillates between a Contracting Triangle and a Complex Corrective (WXY) structure. In the WXY scenario, a breakdown below the Wave C low is expected. A sharp impulsive move above the upper boundary would serve as an Invalidation Point.
– H4 Outlook: The WXY structure is in progress. While the $Y = W$ target at 4513 was hit, the lack of a strong rebound suggests further weakness. If the current bounce fails and prints a lower low, the $Y = 1.618W$ extension at 4374 becomes the primary objective.
– H1 Outlook: Overlapping extensions are creating complexity. Following an ABC corrective bounce, we look for a bearish continuation. Patience is required until H4 momentum reaches Overbought levels to align with the higher timeframe bias.
Execution Plan
– Trade Setup: Looking for a Sell setup based on Confluence between H4/H1 Overbought cycles and M15 structure break.
– Liquidity Zone: 4573
– Sell Zone: 4570 – 4574
– Stop Loss: 4592
– Take Profit (TP): 4512 | 4473 | 4412
– Observation: The 4376 area is identified as a high-probability Buy Zone if the Y wave completes as an extension.
Disclaimer: Trading Forex and Gold involves significant risk. This analysis is for educational purposes only.
تم فتح الصفقة
📉 XAUUSD: MARKET STATE UPDATE
CONTEXT
– Current bullish structure has reached a key liquidity zone at 4645. This high-volume area is likely to trigger significant profit-taking pressure.
– The higher timeframe trend remains under pressure from technical resistance levels.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
– H4 Momentum: Reaching extreme Overbought conditions; reversal signals are emerging.
– H1 Momentum: Synchronized in overbought territory, signaling an immediate technical correction.
SETUP
– Scenario 1: A technical pullback occurs on the H1 timeframe starting from the current price zone.
– Scenario 2: If the momentum is strong enough, the decline will extend and align with an H4 structural correction.
⚠️ Note: Prioritize monitoring price action at the 4645 liquidity zone. Avoid FOMO buying while both timeframes are in overbought conditions.
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منشورات ذات صلة
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.