I still see the market as more bearish-neutral rather than bullish.
Why?
We still have a clear sequence of lower highs
The descending trendline is still holding
Every rebound is becoming weaker
Bullish candles lack strong follow-through
The EMA200 is still acting as dynamic pressure above price
In addition:
The 0.5 Fibonacci zone (~4422) has not been reclaimed aggressively
Price reactions are slow and overlapping
The structure looks more like distribution/compression rather than true bullish accumulation
Very important:
The triangle structure is starting to compress volatility.
This type of compression usually leads to a strong impulsive move afterward.
What would I personally do?
I would NOT buy in the middle of compression
I would wait for breakout confirmation
BUY scenario:
A Daily close, or at least a strong H4 close above the descending trendline
Then a higher low formation
Followed by continuation above 4700
Only then would the long setup become cleaner.
SELL scenario:
Clear loss of the 4500-4450 level
Strong bearish impulse candles
In that case, the 4200–4000 zone becomes highly probable
Right now, honestly?
The market feels like a “dead zone” where traders are getting trapped on both sides.
If I had to choose a directional bias right now:
I would still lean slightly bearish until the descending trendline gets invalidated.
Especially because:
The candle structure still does not show a healthy reversal
It looks more like a weak correction inside a larger downtrend.
Why?
We still have a clear sequence of lower highs
The descending trendline is still holding
Every rebound is becoming weaker
Bullish candles lack strong follow-through
The EMA200 is still acting as dynamic pressure above price
In addition:
The 0.5 Fibonacci zone (~4422) has not been reclaimed aggressively
Price reactions are slow and overlapping
The structure looks more like distribution/compression rather than true bullish accumulation
Very important:
The triangle structure is starting to compress volatility.
This type of compression usually leads to a strong impulsive move afterward.
What would I personally do?
I would NOT buy in the middle of compression
I would wait for breakout confirmation
BUY scenario:
A Daily close, or at least a strong H4 close above the descending trendline
Then a higher low formation
Followed by continuation above 4700
Only then would the long setup become cleaner.
SELL scenario:
Clear loss of the 4500-4450 level
Strong bearish impulse candles
In that case, the 4200–4000 zone becomes highly probable
Right now, honestly?
The market feels like a “dead zone” where traders are getting trapped on both sides.
If I had to choose a directional bias right now:
I would still lean slightly bearish until the descending trendline gets invalidated.
Especially because:
The candle structure still does not show a healthy reversal
It looks more like a weak correction inside a larger downtrend.
ملاحظة
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.