The geopolitical situation in West Asia has entered a highly volatile phase, triggering high volatility in commodity and currency markets. Despite the drastic increase in the risk of a major war, the price of gold (XAU/USD) remains restrained by the strength of the US dollar, which acts as the primary global reserve asset.
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✅ Military Escalation: Hormuz Blockade & Riyadh Attack
The market is digesting a series of "Black Swan" events that have occurred in a short period of time:
🔸Closing the Strait of Hormuz: The IRGC Navy's effective announcement to completely close the world's most critical maritime route systematically threatens global energy supplies.
🔸US Embassy Attack: The drone attack that hit the US Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, marked an unprecedented escalation and directly drew deeper US involvement.
🔸US Ultimatum: Secretary of State Marco Rubio's statement regarding a "major escalation of attacks" on Iran in the next 24 hours, supported by President Trump's warning, suggests that all-out war is likely unavoidable.
💵 The US Dollar vs. Gold Dilemma
Usually, war tensions would send gold soaring unhindered. However, a "Dual Safe-Haven" phenomenon is currently occurring:
🔸USD as King: The US dollar's status as the global reserve currency has been strengthened by this crisis. Investors are not only buying gold but also hoarding dollars for liquidity.
🔸The Fed's Rhetoric: Reduced expectations of aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve keep US yields attractive, which technically limits the appeal of non-yielding gold.
🔸Psychological Levels: Gold is still struggling to break through and maintain above $5,400, which has served as very strong horizontal resistance since late January.
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✅ Gold XAU/USD Technical Analysis
⚡Market Structure: The primary trend remains bullish. We can see the formation of a recent Higher High (HH) after the price broke through the 5,260.00 level. A very clean Break of Structure (BOS) occurred to the upside, indicating that buying power remains very dominant.
⚡Price Action: After a very sharp (impulsive) price spike, the price is currently in a consolidation phase at the peak. The emergence of a supply area (upper gray box) in the range of 5,400.00 - 5,420.00 is currently preventing further upside.
⚡Volume Profile: There is a significant accumulation of volume around the 5,180.00 level (red line), indicating the previous price equilibrium level before the latest spike.
⚡Indicator (RSI): The RSI is at 51.50, indicating the price is in a neutral position after previously being in the overbought area. This provides room for the price to move technically without the burden of extreme overbought.
✅ Projected Movement Direction:
⚡Re-test Scenario (Pullback): The price will likely make a healthy correction first towards the previous demand area or BOS in the range of 5,240.00 - 5,260.00 before continuing its upward movement.
⚡Breakout Scenario: If the price breaks through and closes solidly above the 5,420.28 level, gold will seek a new, higher psychological level.
⚡Reversal Alert: If the price breaks through the last Higher Low below 5,139.97, this bullish structure will be declared invalid.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Military Escalation: Hormuz Blockade & Riyadh Attack
The market is digesting a series of "Black Swan" events that have occurred in a short period of time:
🔸Closing the Strait of Hormuz: The IRGC Navy's effective announcement to completely close the world's most critical maritime route systematically threatens global energy supplies.
🔸US Embassy Attack: The drone attack that hit the US Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, marked an unprecedented escalation and directly drew deeper US involvement.
🔸US Ultimatum: Secretary of State Marco Rubio's statement regarding a "major escalation of attacks" on Iran in the next 24 hours, supported by President Trump's warning, suggests that all-out war is likely unavoidable.
💵 The US Dollar vs. Gold Dilemma
Usually, war tensions would send gold soaring unhindered. However, a "Dual Safe-Haven" phenomenon is currently occurring:
🔸USD as King: The US dollar's status as the global reserve currency has been strengthened by this crisis. Investors are not only buying gold but also hoarding dollars for liquidity.
🔸The Fed's Rhetoric: Reduced expectations of aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve keep US yields attractive, which technically limits the appeal of non-yielding gold.
🔸Psychological Levels: Gold is still struggling to break through and maintain above $5,400, which has served as very strong horizontal resistance since late January.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Gold XAU/USD Technical Analysis
⚡Market Structure: The primary trend remains bullish. We can see the formation of a recent Higher High (HH) after the price broke through the 5,260.00 level. A very clean Break of Structure (BOS) occurred to the upside, indicating that buying power remains very dominant.
⚡Price Action: After a very sharp (impulsive) price spike, the price is currently in a consolidation phase at the peak. The emergence of a supply area (upper gray box) in the range of 5,400.00 - 5,420.00 is currently preventing further upside.
⚡Volume Profile: There is a significant accumulation of volume around the 5,180.00 level (red line), indicating the previous price equilibrium level before the latest spike.
⚡Indicator (RSI): The RSI is at 51.50, indicating the price is in a neutral position after previously being in the overbought area. This provides room for the price to move technically without the burden of extreme overbought.
✅ Projected Movement Direction:
⚡Re-test Scenario (Pullback): The price will likely make a healthy correction first towards the previous demand area or BOS in the range of 5,240.00 - 5,260.00 before continuing its upward movement.
⚡Breakout Scenario: If the price breaks through and closes solidly above the 5,420.28 level, gold will seek a new, higher psychological level.
⚡Reversal Alert: If the price breaks through the last Higher Low below 5,139.97, this bullish structure will be declared invalid.
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منشورات ذات صلة
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.