📊 Technical Structure
XAUUSD Gold (XAU/USD) extended its advance, reaching $4,147–$4,156, its highest level in over two weeks. The structure shows a bullish bias as the price consolidates above $4,120, with buyers likely to defend the Support Zone at $4,105–$4,111.
The Resistance Zone at $4,147–$4,156 aligns with a short-term overbought area where some profit-taking may occur. However, as long as the price remains above the $4,111 support, momentum favours a continued push toward the upper boundary of the channel.
🎯 Trade Setup
Idea: Buy near support, targeting a retest of resistance at $4,150–$4,156.
Entry: $4,111 – $4,106
Stop Loss: $4,105
Take Profit 1: $4,147
Take Profit 2: $4,156
Risk–Reward Ratio: ≈ 1 : 6.53
A confirmed break below $4,105 would invalidate this setup and may trigger a correction toward $4,092.
🌐 Macro Background
Gold’s momentum remains firm, buoyed by rising Fed rate-cut expectations and soft U.S. labour data, even as the U.S. government shutdown nears resolution.
FXStreet’s Lallalit Srijandorn noted, “Gold extends gains toward $4,150 as weaker U.S. jobs data and dovish expectations lift investor sentiment.” 【FXStreet】
Labor Market Weakness: According to ADP data, U.S. private-sector job creation fell by an average of 11,250 jobs per week in late October — signalling a slowdown in labour demand after the firm previously reported gains. This reinforces expectations that the Fed could deliver another rate cut by year-end.
Fed Outlook: The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 68% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in December, and nearly 80% odds by January 2026, supporting gold’s medium-term bullish tone.
Government Shutdown Update: Bloomberg reported that the U.S. Senate passed a temporary funding measure backed by centrist Democrats, expected to end the record-long shutdown. This could marginally reduce safe-haven demand but is unlikely to shift gold’s structural momentum, as macro risks persist.
Fed Speakers Ahead: Comments from Fed officials John Williams, Christopher Waller, Raphael Bostic, and others later today may offer further guidance on the December policy path. Any dovish tone could extend gold’s rally beyond $4,156.
In short, while the resolution of the shutdown could momentarily weigh on gold’s safe-haven appeal, soft employment data and high odds of a December rate cut remain powerful bullish drivers.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance: $4,147 – $4,156
Support: $4,106 – $4,111
Psychological Level: $4,150
📌 Trade Summary
Gold remains supported above $4,110, with strong upward momentum likely to retest $4,147–$4,156. A buy-on-dip strategy near $4,111–$4,105 remains preferred as long as support holds. The bullish bias persists while the Fed cut outlook strengthens.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
XAUUSD Gold (XAU/USD) extended its advance, reaching $4,147–$4,156, its highest level in over two weeks. The structure shows a bullish bias as the price consolidates above $4,120, with buyers likely to defend the Support Zone at $4,105–$4,111.The Resistance Zone at $4,147–$4,156 aligns with a short-term overbought area where some profit-taking may occur. However, as long as the price remains above the $4,111 support, momentum favours a continued push toward the upper boundary of the channel.
🎯 Trade Setup
Idea: Buy near support, targeting a retest of resistance at $4,150–$4,156.
Entry: $4,111 – $4,106
Stop Loss: $4,105
Take Profit 1: $4,147
Take Profit 2: $4,156
Risk–Reward Ratio: ≈ 1 : 6.53
A confirmed break below $4,105 would invalidate this setup and may trigger a correction toward $4,092.
🌐 Macro Background
Gold’s momentum remains firm, buoyed by rising Fed rate-cut expectations and soft U.S. labour data, even as the U.S. government shutdown nears resolution.
FXStreet’s Lallalit Srijandorn noted, “Gold extends gains toward $4,150 as weaker U.S. jobs data and dovish expectations lift investor sentiment.” 【FXStreet】
Labor Market Weakness: According to ADP data, U.S. private-sector job creation fell by an average of 11,250 jobs per week in late October — signalling a slowdown in labour demand after the firm previously reported gains. This reinforces expectations that the Fed could deliver another rate cut by year-end.
Fed Outlook: The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 68% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in December, and nearly 80% odds by January 2026, supporting gold’s medium-term bullish tone.
Government Shutdown Update: Bloomberg reported that the U.S. Senate passed a temporary funding measure backed by centrist Democrats, expected to end the record-long shutdown. This could marginally reduce safe-haven demand but is unlikely to shift gold’s structural momentum, as macro risks persist.
Fed Speakers Ahead: Comments from Fed officials John Williams, Christopher Waller, Raphael Bostic, and others later today may offer further guidance on the December policy path. Any dovish tone could extend gold’s rally beyond $4,156.
In short, while the resolution of the shutdown could momentarily weigh on gold’s safe-haven appeal, soft employment data and high odds of a December rate cut remain powerful bullish drivers.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance: $4,147 – $4,156
Support: $4,106 – $4,111
Psychological Level: $4,150
📌 Trade Summary
Gold remains supported above $4,110, with strong upward momentum likely to retest $4,147–$4,156. A buy-on-dip strategy near $4,111–$4,105 remains preferred as long as support holds. The bullish bias persists while the Fed cut outlook strengthens.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
ATFX is a globally regulated, award-winning fintech broker offering customer support in 20 languages.
👉🏼Start your trading journey with ATFX: bit.ly/3mLMPHz
👉🏼Start your trading journey with ATFX: bit.ly/3mLMPHz
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.
ATFX is a globally regulated, award-winning fintech broker offering customer support in 20 languages.
👉🏼Start your trading journey with ATFX: bit.ly/3mLMPHz
👉🏼Start your trading journey with ATFX: bit.ly/3mLMPHz
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.