XAUUSD – Gold Recovers From 4,000, But The Risk Is Not Gone Yet

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XAUUSD – Gold Recovers From 4,000, But The Risk Is Not Gone Yet

Gold is recovering, but the chart still needs confirmation.

After approaching the 4,000 area, price reacted from the lower liquidity zone and is now trading around 4,106. The short-term recovery looks positive, but gold is still inside a corrective channel and below key resistance.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Gold is supported by rising Middle East tensions, which can boost safe-haven demand. However, overall pressure on precious metals remains, so the market is still cautious.

For now, price reaction around 4,130 and 4,196 is more important than news.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + MARKET STRUCTURE

Gold bounced from the buy order zone near 4,061, showing buyers are defending this level. As long as price holds above 4,061, the recovery can continue.

The first resistance is 4,130. A break above this level could push price toward 4,196. However, 4,196 is a stronger resistance where sellers may react again.

If rejection appears at these levels, gold could pull back toward 4,091 or 4,061.

KEY PRICE ZONES TO WATCH

Current price: 4,106
Buy zone: 4,061
Support: 4,091

Sell zone: 4,130
Main resistance: 4,196

Lower liquidity: 4,020 – 4,030
Invalidation: Below 4,061

TRADING SCENARIOS

Buy Scenario

Buy Zone: 4,061 – 4,091
Entry: Bullish reaction or confirmation
SL: Below 4,061
TP1: 4,130
TP2: 4,196

Breakout Buy

Condition: Break and hold above 4,130
Target: 4,196

Sell Scenario

Sell Zone: 4,130 or 4,196
Entry: Bearish rejection or failed breakout
TP1: 4,091
TP2: 4,061
TP3: 4,020 – 4,030

Invalidation: Above 4,196

MY VIEW ON GOLD

Gold is in a cautious recovery, not a full bullish reversal yet.

As long as 4,061 holds, price can move toward 4,130 and 4,196. But sellers may still react at resistance.

Key question: can gold break and hold above 4,130?

If yes, 4,196 is next. If not, price may return to 4,061.

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