XAUUSD on the H1 timeframe is showing a very notable recovery after sweeping below the 4,360–4,380 zone. The sharp rebound pushed price back above both EMAs, suggesting that buyers have absorbed selling pressure quite effectively, especially after reclaiming the 4,500 area.
What stands out most to me is that price is currently trading around 4,540 after facing some profit-taking from the 4,575–4,590 zone. This looks like a normal reaction after a rapid rally and is not yet enough to invalidate the recovery structure. As long as gold remains above the 4,500–4,515 area, the short-term structure still leans bullish.
From the macro side, gold is receiving support from weaker-than-expected US data and a softer US dollar. However, inflation risks have not disappeared, meaning the Fed still has limited room to pivot aggressively toward easing. Because of that, the current rebound has a valid foundation, but the market likely still needs to build momentum step by step rather than expecting an immediate breakout.
My preferred scenario is that gold may pull back slightly toward the 4,515–4,500 area to retest the EMA zone and recently reclaimed support. If this region holds firmly, XAUUSD could continue recovering toward 4,560–4,575, with the next upside zone around 4,590–4,600.
With the current structure, I do not want to chase longs immediately after price was rejected from short-term highs. A cleaner setup for me would be waiting for gold to retest the 4,515–4,500 area and observing how buying absorption reacts there. If buyers defend this zone well, the recovery may still have room to continue into the next session.
What stands out most to me is that price is currently trading around 4,540 after facing some profit-taking from the 4,575–4,590 zone. This looks like a normal reaction after a rapid rally and is not yet enough to invalidate the recovery structure. As long as gold remains above the 4,500–4,515 area, the short-term structure still leans bullish.
From the macro side, gold is receiving support from weaker-than-expected US data and a softer US dollar. However, inflation risks have not disappeared, meaning the Fed still has limited room to pivot aggressively toward easing. Because of that, the current rebound has a valid foundation, but the market likely still needs to build momentum step by step rather than expecting an immediate breakout.
My preferred scenario is that gold may pull back slightly toward the 4,515–4,500 area to retest the EMA zone and recently reclaimed support. If this region holds firmly, XAUUSD could continue recovering toward 4,560–4,575, with the next upside zone around 4,590–4,600.
With the current structure, I do not want to chase longs immediately after price was rejected from short-term highs. A cleaner setup for me would be waiting for gold to retest the 4,515–4,500 area and observing how buying absorption reacts there. If buyers defend this zone well, the recovery may still have room to continue into the next session.
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إخلاء المسؤولية
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