The reason why i am getting interested with the Grains is : Fertilizers have double in price and the majors producers GCC countries ships are still not going through Hormuz...coming September harvesting figures could produce a surprise...and technically speaking ...just look at the chart .
DXY & REAL YIELD IMPLICATIONS
DXY 100.93, real yield 2.255% — mid-range, no directional extreme. Dollar softness would be constructive for BCOM broadly (125.62) and export competitiveness; a hawkish minutes surprise lifts both DXY and real yields, pressuring grain complex via macro correlation even against a firm crop-condition backdrop. Watch DXY/real-yield reaction Wed as the dominant cross-asset filter into WASDE Friday. LIQUIDITY MAP : TPO: Single prints 432.4/452.2 — price currently sits between; 432.4 becomes first support/inefficiency to revisit on pullback, 452.2 is the next upside magnet/resistance shelf. Poor High/Low 403.6/459.4 — both unresolved, longer-dated liquidity pools; 459.4 poor high is the higher-timeframe draw if breakout sustains. Weekly POC 437.6 sits just under spot — value area migrating up, POC now first line of defense on any retracement. Prior Weekly POC 411.6 is stale/left behind — confirms upward value migration. WYCKOFF / MARKET PROFILE
Structure resembles a Spring/test sequence off the 403.6–406.2 low cluster (poor low + weekly low confluence), now in markup phase testing the weekly 55 EMA and migrating POC. Volume/velocity divergence (see KMCM below) suggests the current push is running hot relative to the daily balance — classic early-markup vs. UTAD risk if 452.2 rejects on declining effort-to-result. USDA Crop Progress — released Monday, July 6, 2026 (as of Sunday, July 5)
Corn:
Good/Excellent: 67%, steady w/w
Silking: 16% (behind average pace)
Dough stage: 3%
Weather flag: wide-ranging week — heat + flooding in parts of the Belt, full impact may not show until next week's read given survey cutoff timing YoY context: this week last year corn was rated 74% G/E (steady-to-improving into July). Current 67% is a 7-point YoY deficit — meaningfully behind last year's pace despite this year's rating holding flat rather than declining. That gap is the more price-relevant data point than the flat w/w print itself: tighter crop-quality trajectory into pod/dough-fill season is a incremental bullish input for the WASDE July 10 yield assumption, especially if the flood/heat stress flagged this week shows up as a downgrade in next Monday's report. TRADE LOCATION & INVALIDATION
Long continuation:
Entry zone: 437.6 (POC) – 432.4 (single print) on retracement
Target 1: 449.2 (monthly high) | Target 2: 452.2 (single print) | Stretch: 459.4 (poor high)
Invalidation: close back below 427.0 (weekly high, now support) — structure failure
Fade/short (tactical, counter-trend):
Entry: 449.2–452.2 resistance confluence
Target: 440.0 → 437.6 POC
Invalidation: sustained close above 452.2 Net skew constructive: BOS confirmed on daily/weekly, Managed Money covering shorts, 6M COT elevated but 36M neutral (no extreme to fade). Primary risk is the daily/4H KMCM divergence — don't chase strength above 449–452 without a POC retest first.
DXY & REAL YIELD IMPLICATIONS
DXY 100.93, real yield 2.255% — mid-range, no directional extreme. Dollar softness would be constructive for BCOM broadly (125.62) and export competitiveness; a hawkish minutes surprise lifts both DXY and real yields, pressuring grain complex via macro correlation even against a firm crop-condition backdrop. Watch DXY/real-yield reaction Wed as the dominant cross-asset filter into WASDE Friday. LIQUIDITY MAP : TPO: Single prints 432.4/452.2 — price currently sits between; 432.4 becomes first support/inefficiency to revisit on pullback, 452.2 is the next upside magnet/resistance shelf. Poor High/Low 403.6/459.4 — both unresolved, longer-dated liquidity pools; 459.4 poor high is the higher-timeframe draw if breakout sustains. Weekly POC 437.6 sits just under spot — value area migrating up, POC now first line of defense on any retracement. Prior Weekly POC 411.6 is stale/left behind — confirms upward value migration. WYCKOFF / MARKET PROFILE
Structure resembles a Spring/test sequence off the 403.6–406.2 low cluster (poor low + weekly low confluence), now in markup phase testing the weekly 55 EMA and migrating POC. Volume/velocity divergence (see KMCM below) suggests the current push is running hot relative to the daily balance — classic early-markup vs. UTAD risk if 452.2 rejects on declining effort-to-result. USDA Crop Progress — released Monday, July 6, 2026 (as of Sunday, July 5)
Corn:
Good/Excellent: 67%, steady w/w
Silking: 16% (behind average pace)
Dough stage: 3%
Weather flag: wide-ranging week — heat + flooding in parts of the Belt, full impact may not show until next week's read given survey cutoff timing YoY context: this week last year corn was rated 74% G/E (steady-to-improving into July). Current 67% is a 7-point YoY deficit — meaningfully behind last year's pace despite this year's rating holding flat rather than declining. That gap is the more price-relevant data point than the flat w/w print itself: tighter crop-quality trajectory into pod/dough-fill season is a incremental bullish input for the WASDE July 10 yield assumption, especially if the flood/heat stress flagged this week shows up as a downgrade in next Monday's report. TRADE LOCATION & INVALIDATION
Long continuation:
Entry zone: 437.6 (POC) – 432.4 (single print) on retracement
Target 1: 449.2 (monthly high) | Target 2: 452.2 (single print) | Stretch: 459.4 (poor high)
Invalidation: close back below 427.0 (weekly high, now support) — structure failure
Fade/short (tactical, counter-trend):
Entry: 449.2–452.2 resistance confluence
Target: 440.0 → 437.6 POC
Invalidation: sustained close above 452.2 Net skew constructive: BOS confirmed on daily/weekly, Managed Money covering shorts, 6M COT elevated but 36M neutral (no extreme to fade). Primary risk is the daily/4H KMCM divergence — don't chase strength above 449–452 without a POC retest first.
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إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.