Long
Long
Long
EGX30 — Decision Zone Above the NecklineEGX30 closed Wednesday’s session at 52,621, staying above the neckline area that many analysts are watching around 51,300 - 51,200 for a possible head and shoulders structure.
For me, this is not a random area.
It is a decision zone.
The important point is that Tuesday and Wednesday sessions came with trading value below the average, so the current move still needs liquidity confirmation before calling the direction with confidence.
Many retail traders are now trading under psychological pressure because of the negative pattern and the fear of correction.
But technically, as long as EGX30 holds above the current pivot support around 52,525, I still see a chance for the index to test the next resistance levels:
52,821
53,205
53,538
A breakout above these levels may weaken the bearish pattern scenario and open the way to retest the head/top of the structure.
On the other side, if weakness appears and the index breaks below 52,525, pressure may return again, especially if the break comes with higher trading value.
In that case, the probability of the bearish head and shoulders scenario becomes active again.
Key levels
Pivot support: 52,525
Lower supports: 52,462 / 52,276
Resistances: 52,821 / 53,205 / 53,538
My view
EGX30 is not in a random move now.
It is in a technical decision area.
Holding above 52,525 keeps the short-term structure constructive.
Breaking below it weakens momentum and brings the bearish scenario back to the table.
At this stage, I am watching levels and liquidity, not emotions.
The market does not move by fear.
It moves by numbers, volume, and clear structure.
67,600 or 60,000 This Weekend?Hello, traders💰
On Wednesday, I highlighted the 64,890 support level and mentioned that "the price reaction here would most likely determine the next short-term move: 67,600 or 62,500."
Also, during the attempted bounce from 64,890, we did not see what I mentioned earlier: "To confirm a local reversal, we need to see several consecutive green 4-hour candles. In that case, the probability of another move toward 67,600 increases significantly."
Unfortunately, yesterday we saw neither a strong defense of the 64,890 level❌🛡️ nor the confirmation signals I was looking for.
⚰️That meant the price was likely heading toward 62,500 — which is exactly what happened.
At the moment, all eyes are on the 62,500 level. The scenario here is very similar to what I previously described for 64,890:
✅✅✅If 62,500 holds, BTC could return to 64,890 over the weekend and potentially make another move toward 67,600.
❌❌❌If 62,500 fails, BTC could drop toward 60,000 over the weekend.
Peace🌄
Long
Bitcoin $80,000 Rejection Idea (Bearish Scenario)Bitcoin just tapped into $80.5K - a critical zone.
It's the lowest point Bitcoin has reached in November 2025 and now, Bitcoin could be rejecting off that level with multiple bearish confluences.
1. Rising channel / Bear Flag - BTC could be testing the top of a channel.
2. Lowering volume - This is a sign of consolidation, and aligns well with the idea of a bear flag.
3. EMA 200 Band (0.25 standard deviation) - Since the Death cross, when BTC taps into this zone, it pivots.
And last but not least, Bitcoin looks like it's in a 5-wave move to the downside.
This bear flag is potentially the 4th developing leg, and if it breaks $70,000, could take us to $50,000 or even lower.
Note: This is not a trade setup, but rather just a clarification of why Bitcoin looks bearish on a technical level. 
Short
XAUUSD — EMA Consolidation Before Bearish Continuation
Fundamental Analysis
Gold remains under short-term pressure as traders continue to watch USD momentum, Treasury yields, and upcoming U.S. macro data.
For now, the recovery has not confirmed a bullish reversal. Price is still reacting around the EMA area, so the current move may be only a short-term consolidation before sellers attempt another push lower.
Technical Analysis
On the 2H chart, XAUUSD is trading around 4,304 after a strong rejection from the upper value range. Price is now consolidating near the EMA 34 and EMA 89 area, showing that the market is pausing before choosing the next direction.
The key zone to watch is 4,301 - 4,320. This area aligns with the Fibonacci retracement zone, volume reaction, and short-term EMA structure. If price fails to hold above this area, sellers may regain control.
The stronger resistance remains around 4,359 - 4,382. As long as gold stays below this value range, the bearish view remains preferred.
If price breaks below the current EMA consolidation zone, the next downside levels are 4,257 and 4,219. A deeper bearish continuation may target the larger convergence support zone around 4,118 - 4,125.
Important Key Levels
Current price area: 4,304
EMA consolidation zone: 4,301 - 4,320
Fibonacci retracement + volume zone: 4,301 - 4,320
Upper value range resistance: 4,359 - 4,382
First downside target: 4,257
Second downside target: 4,219
Major convergence support zone: 4,118 - 4,125
Invalidation area: above 4,382
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Scenario
Entry: 4,301 - 4,320
Stop Loss: 4,382
Take Profit 1: 4,257
Take Profit 2: 4,219
Take Profit 3: 4,118 - 4,125
Sell Condition
The preferred setup is to wait for gold to react around the 4,301 - 4,320 EMA and Fibonacci value zone.
A sell setup becomes more valid if price forms bearish rejection from this zone, such as a long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed breakout, or a lower high below the upper value range.
If price breaks below 4,257 with clear bearish momentum, the next downside focus will be 4,219. Below that, the larger target zone is 4,118 - 4,125.
Entry Conditions
Wait for rejection around 4,301 - 4,320.
Do not sell if price breaks strongly above the value zone.
A move below 4,257 confirms stronger bearish pressure.
If price breaks and holds above 4,382, the sell setup is invalid.
Overall, the main view remains bearish while XAUUSD stays below the upper value range and fails to reclaim stronger resistance. Price may continue to consolidate around the EMA zone in the short term, but if sellers defend 4,301 - 4,320, gold may continue lower toward 4,257, 4,219, and 4,118 - 4,125.
Do you share the same bearish view on gold, or are you waiting for a clearer breakdown below the EMA consolidation zone?
Short
Short 
Scaramucci Says Bitcoin Apathy Is a Bullish SignalCrypto markets have been choppy lately, but Anthony Scaramucci remains confident about Bitcoin’s long-term outlook. The SkyBridge Capital founder says recent price swings haven’t changed his bullish view of the asset.
Speaking with CNBC, Scaramucci also brushed off concerns about Strategy’s massive Bitcoin position, arguing the company remains well-funded. He added that Bitcoin could continue following its historical four-year cycle, with the next major recovery potentially starting in late 2026 or early 2027.
Meanwhile, a recent peace deal and lower oil prices could help reduce inflation. If inflation falls, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates, which could support Bitcoin and other risk assets.
His Views on Bitcoin, Michael Saylor, and the Crypto Market
“I think Bitcoin starts a rally late in the fourth quarter of 2026 into early 2027.”
Scaramucci said Bitcoin is still tracking its usual post-halving cycle. He noted that ETF inflows and rising institutional interest have provided stronger support than in past bear markets. Because of this, he expects the next major recovery phase could start in late 2026 and continue into 2027.
“He’s definitely not in trouble… I like him. I think he’s going to be right.”
When asked about Michael Saylor, Scaramucci dismissed concerns about Strategy’s massive Bitcoin exposure. He said Saylor has a strong balance sheet, access to deep capital markets, and enough financial flexibility to handle further Bitcoin volatility. In his view, Saylor’s long-term Bitcoin strategy remains intact.
“The apathy is there. No one cares about it anymore.”
He also said market interest is very low right now, which he sees as a bullish sign. Bitcoin searches on Google have dropped, and overall investor hype has cooled. In the past, this kind of low interest has often shown up near market bottoms, not tops.
“When you have RSI where it is, apathy where it is, and it’s a thin market… a tiny bit of demand for Bitcoin moves the price.”
With 38 years of investing experience, Scaramucci said Bitcoin is at a stage where even small buying pressure can move prices sharply. Since the market is still small compared to major assets, new demand from institutions or retail investors can quickly drive it higher.
“I still like it. I own a lot of it.”
Giving confidence to the traders he said he still owns a good portion of Bitcoin, despite market uncertainty, he remains confident in its long-term outlook. His view is that the current market scenario looks far more like a late-cycle slowdown than the end of Bitcoin’s growth story.
Short 
BTC - Third Weekly Test of the 200-Week MA: This is Not RandomBTC is again standing at one of the most important lines on the chart:
The 200-week moving average.
This is now the third consecutive weekly test around this zone.
For me, this is not a place to treat emotionally.
It is a decision area.
The market is not only testing a moving average.
It is testing whether long-term buyers still have enough strength to defend the structure.
What makes this moment more important is the behavior around the level.
Price is not crashing in one clean candle and disappearing.
It keeps returning to the same area.
Testing.
Reacting.
Failing to recover strongly.
Then testing again.
I do not like to say “institutions are doing this” as a fact, because the chart alone cannot prove who is behind every candle.
But honestly, this does not look like random retail noise to me.
Repeated pressure around a major weekly moving average usually reflects bigger positioning, bigger liquidity, and bigger decision-making.
The key point is simple:
A wick below the 200-week MA is not enough.
The real danger starts if BTC closes the week clearly below this zone.
If that happens, the market may stop treating the 200-week MA as support and start treating it as lost structure.
That can open the way toward the next major liquidity/support area around 49,000.
This is also where dominance matters.
BTC dominance is still high around 58.7%, which means Bitcoin is still controlling the crypto market direction.
At the same time, USDT dominance is rising around 8.7%, with a strong daily push.
This is not a small signal.
When USDT dominance rises while BTC is testing a major support, it usually means capital is moving into safety, not risk.
So the story is not only BTC vs MA 200.
The story is:
BTC is testing long-term support.
USDT dominance is rising.
Risk appetite is weakening.
And the market is waiting for confirmation.
For me, the map is clear:
If BTC reclaims and holds above the 200-week MA, buyers may still defend the long-term structure.
But if BTC closes below it, especially with weak recovery and rising USDT dominance, then the road toward 49,000 becomes much more serious.
This is not a prediction.
This is a risk map.
And at this level, risk management matters more than hope. Gold turned more bearishGold has successfully reached the previously shared target of 4850 and subsequently declined toward 4400, aligning with the expectations outlined in my prior analysis (previous post attached).
The technical outlook has now turned increasingly bearish. Price has broken below the major 4500 support zone and, more importantly, closed beneath the daily EMA200 for the first time since the bull run began in November 2023 — a notable shift in market structure and momentum.
A break down of small inverse Cup & Handle formation can be seen, projecting a measured target near 4100. However, from a broader perspective, I remain bearish on Gold unless there is a meaningful shift in macro fundamentals.
The current macro backdrop may continue to pressure precious metals. If the Fed maintains a higher-for-longer stance, real yields remain elevated, and the USD stays firm, Gold could face additional downside pressure. In that scenario, I would expect Gold to continue moving lower toward at least the 3900 region over the longer term.
This bearish outlook would begin to weaken only if we see a meaningful fundamental shift — such as a dovish Fed pivot, rate cuts, declining yields, or renewed safe-haven demand. Technically, Gold would need a strong daily close back above 4850 to regain long-term bullish momentum. Short 
Accenture | ACN | Long at $127.50Accenture NYSE:ACN shares dropped sharply today due to lower-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue guidance, an incoming revenue miss for the third quarter, and lowered full-year sales growth targets. Additionally, a massive $4.18 billion capital outlay for three cybersecurity acquisitions spooked investors. Recession anyone?!
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Price entered my selected "major crash" simple moving average area (gray lines). This area is often a major zone of algorithmic buying. The lower part of the channel extends into the low $120s and I do believe, at a minimum, this will be reached.
If price significantly falls though the "major crash" level, next support area is the "company collapse" simple moving average zone which is currently between $80 and $90. Always be prepared, if entering, for the possibility of such levels. If the price extends to this level, it will be another personal buying opportunity for a much stronger position.
INSIDERS
Selling only . Keep an eye out for buying at this level or as the price drops.
GROWTH
41% EPS growth expected between 2025 ($12.93) and 2029 ($19.28).
33% revenue growth anticipated between 2025 ($69.7 billion) and 2029 ($91.6 billion).
2026 is the "rough" or flat year (predicted).
FUNDAMENTALS
Current P/E = 12.8x
Bankruptcy Risk / Alman's Z-Score = 5.1 (low risk)
Debt-to-Equity = 0.3x (healthy)
Short-Term Debt / Quick Ratio = 1.3 (moderately high)
Dividend Yield = 4.18%
Free Cash Flow Yield = 15.7% (excellent)
ACTION
Strong company with solid fundamentals. In 24 years of trading on the stock market, the price has never strayed this far from the historical mean. With a strong dividend, bright future, and the recession-price potentially baked in, I'm buying a starter position here at $127.50 and waiting it out. Buy low, sell high... time will tell. If the price drops below $100 and enters my "company collapse" simple moving average, I will be adding a heftier position.
TARGETS INTO 2029
$156.00 (+22.4%)
$180.00 (+41.2%)
If you enjoyed this idea, please consider following for more: www.tradingview.com 
Long
Oracle: Potential Space to the Downside?Oracle fell on earnings last week, and some traders may see more space to the downside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the gap on June 11 after the release of quarterly results. While numbers were strong, increased capital-raising plans dragged prices lower.
Second, the software stock has remained below that bearish gap after bouncing. That lower high may suggest that new resistance formed under old support.
Third, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has remained below the 200-day SMA. The 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is also below the 21-day EMA. Those signals could reflect bearishness in the long and short terms.
Fourth, ORCL remains above its 52-week low of $134.57. Wilder’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also roughly in the middle of its range. Could traders expect a move down the ranges – especially with peers like Microsoft and Salesforce struggling?
Next, prices could be slipping under the 50-day SMA. The last time that happened in October was followed by a steady downtrend. (See the red arrows.)
Finally, ORCL is an active underlier in the options market. (Its average daily volume of 436,700 contracts ranks 12th in the S&P 500, according to TradeStation data.) That could help traders take positions with calls and puts.
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XAUUSD | M15 | Sentinel Core | Sentinel Structure | Sentinel Companion
Situation
• Gold recovered strongly from the 4,240–4,250 demand zone.
• Buyers pushed price toward 4,308–4,312 resistance.
• Multiple breakout attempts failed.
• Current price is trading around 4,296.
👉 Recovery showed strength, but resistance stopped the move.
What This Chart Shows
• Sentinel Structure remains Bearish.
• Buyers reclaimed EMA21 during the recovery.
• Resistance around 4,308–4,312 rejected price multiple times.
• Price is now moving back toward support.
👉 Repeated rejection often leads to pressure on support.
🟦 Phase 1 — The Recovery (4,240–4,250 → 4,308)
• Buyers defended the lower demand zone.
• Higher Lows formed from the lows.
• EMA21 was reclaimed.
• Momentum shifted from selling pressure to recovery.
👉 Recovery showed strength from support.
🟩 Phase 2 — The Failed Breakout (4,308–4,312)
• Buyers pushed into resistance.
• Price tested the same level multiple times.
• Buyers attempted to continue the recovery.
• Resistance held every attempt.
👉 Strength was visible, but confirmation never arrived.
🟨 Phase 3 — Current Market Condition (4,296)
• Current price is trading around 4,296.
• Resistance remains at 4,308–4,312.
• Support sits around 4,292–4,295.
• Lower Highs are forming beneath resistance.
• Price is now testing support.
👉 Failed breakouts often lead back to support.
Key Lesson
Many traders focus on the recovery.
Professional traders focus on what happens at resistance.
In today's chart, buyers had multiple chances to break 4,308–4,312.
They failed each time.
The rejection created Lower Highs.
Now price is testing support again.
That sequence tells us sellers still control the short-term structure.
Momentum alone is not confirmation.
Execution Note (Sentinel Core)
• Watch support around 4,292–4,295.
• Watch resistance around 4,308–4,312.
• Monitor how price reacts at support.
• Structure first → Confirmation second → Execution last.
🛡️ No confirmation = No trade.
Trend Summary
🔴 Trend Direction: Bearish
💰 Current Price: 4,296
📈 Resistance: 4,308–4,312
🛡️ Support: 4,292–4,295
⚠️ Status: Support Under Pressure
Sentinel Principle
You do not trade the move.
You trade confirmed structure.
🛡️ Patience > Excitement
Series Note
Building consistency through observation, not prediction.
#XAUUSD #Gold #PriceAction #MarketStructure #SentinelCore #SentinelCompanion #Intraday #Scalping #TradingView GBPUSD — Sell From EMA Value Zone & Fibonacci Levels
Fundamental Analysis
GBPUSD remains under short-term pressure as traders continue to watch USD strength, U.K. data, and upcoming macro events.
For now, the recovery has not confirmed a bullish reversal. Price is still trading below the key EMA resistance area, so pullbacks into value may continue to offer sell opportunities.
Technical Analysis
On the 2H chart, GBPUSD is trading around 1.3323 after a sharp bearish move from the upper range. Price is currently reacting near the strong support area, but the broader structure still favours sellers while the EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200 remain above price.
The key zone to watch is the EMA value zone around 1.3380 - 1.3395. This area also aligns with the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement and previous broken support. If price pulls back into this zone and rejects, sellers may regain control.
There is also a short-term Fibonacci reaction level around 1.3355 - 1.3363, which can create a scalping sell reaction if price fails to recover strongly.
As long as GBPUSD remains below the EMA value zone, the main bias stays bearish. A rejection from the Fibonacci retracement levels may send price back toward 1.3320, then deeper to 1.3260.
Important Key Levels
Current price area: 1.3323
Strong support area: 1.3315 - 1.3330
Sell scalping zone: 1.3355 - 1.3363
Main EMA value sell zone: 1.3380 - 1.3395
Fibonacci 0.382 value zone: 1.3380 - 1.3395
Upper invalidation area: above 1.3415
First downside target: 1.3315
Main downside target: 1.3260
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Scenario
Entry: 1.3380 - 1.3395
Stop Loss: 1.3415
Take Profit 1: 1.3330
Take Profit 2: 1.3315
Take Profit 3: 1.3260
Sell Condition
The preferred setup is to wait for GBPUSD to pull back into the 1.3380 - 1.3395 EMA value zone. This area is important because it combines EMA resistance, Fibonacci retracement, and previous broken structure.
A sell setup becomes more valid if price forms bearish rejection from this zone, such as a long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed breakout, or lower high formation below the EMA structure.
If price rejects from the value zone and breaks back below 1.3330, bearish pressure may continue toward 1.3315 and 1.3260.
Entry Conditions
Wait for price to retest 1.3380 - 1.3395.
Look for bearish rejection before entering sell.
Do not sell directly at strong support without a pullback.
If price breaks and holds above 1.3415, the sell setup is invalid.
Overall, the main view remains bearish while GBPUSD trades below the EMA value zone. The preferred plan is to wait for a corrective pullback into 1.3380 - 1.3395, then look for sell confirmation toward 1.3330, 1.3315, and 1.3260.
Do you share the same bearish view on GBPUSD, or are you waiting for a cleaner rejection from the EMA value zone?
EURUSD — EMA Bearish Trend, Sell From Value Zone
Fundamental Analysis
EURUSD remains under pressure as the market continues to watch USD momentum, Fed expectations, and upcoming U.S. macro data. If the dollar stays supported, recovery attempts on EURUSD may remain limited.
For next week, the main focus is whether price can retest the value zone above before continuing lower in line with the EMA trend.
Technical Analysis
On the 4H chart, EURUSD is still trading inside a descending channel. EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200 remain above price, showing that the main structure is still bearish.
Price is currently around 1.1565 after reacting from the lower support area. However, this recovery is moving toward the Fibonacci value zone and EMA resistance area near 1.1615.
The main sell zone is around 1.1612 - 1.1627. This area aligns with the 0.382 - 0.5 Fibonacci retracement, EMA resistance, previous broken structure, and liquidity above price.
The key bearish confirmation level is around 1.1500 - 1.1510. If price rejects from the value zone and breaks back below this support, the bearish continuation scenario becomes stronger.
The weekly downside target is the Fibonacci 1.618 extension around 1.1387.
Important Key Levels
Current price area: 1.1565
Main sell zone: 1.1612 - 1.1627
Value zone / Fibonacci area: 1.1612 - 1.1627
Liquidity above: 1.1644 - 1.1646
EMA resistance area: 1.1592 - 1.1646
Key support zone: 1.1500 - 1.1510
Weekly Fibonacci target: 1.1387
Invalidation area: above 1.1646
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Scenario
Entry: 1.1612 - 1.1627
Stop Loss: 1.1646
Take Profit 1: 1.1510
Take Profit 2: 1.1450
Take Profit 3: 1.1387
Sell Condition
The preferred setup is to wait for EURUSD to pull back into the 1.1612 - 1.1627 sell zone. This area is the main value zone on the chart and also aligns with EMA resistance, Fibonacci retracement, and previous broken structure.
A sell setup becomes more valid if price forms bearish rejection from this zone, such as a long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed breakout, or lower high below the EMA structure.
If price rejects from the sell zone and breaks below 1.1500 - 1.1510, the bearish continuation view becomes stronger. The next downside focus would be 1.1450, followed by the weekly Fibonacci target around 1.1387.
Entry Conditions
Wait for price to retest 1.1612 - 1.1627.
Look for bearish rejection before entering sell.
A break below 1.1500 - 1.1510 confirms stronger downside pressure.
If price breaks and holds above 1.1646, the sell setup is invalid.
Overall, the main view for next week remains bearish while EURUSD trades below the EMA structure and inside the descending channel. The preferred plan is to wait for a pullback into the Fibonacci value zone, then look for sell confirmation toward 1.1510, 1.1450, and the weekly Fibonacci target at 1.1387.
Do you share the same bearish view on EURUSD, or are you waiting for a cleaner rejection from the 1.1615 value zone first?
Long
Long
Russell 2000 LONG — 8H ALMA Setup (WR 83%)█ SETUP
US Russell 2000 cash CFD · IG:RUSSELL · 8H · long only.
ALMA Averaging Strategy: ALMA 3 / σ2, SD band 2, min diff 1 bar to add / 1 bar to exit, 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, hard stop −10% from average entry.
Strategy Tester (Russell 8H, matched alert):
Win rate 83% · profit factor 4.0 · max drawdown 18%
Typical hold ~61 bars on winners · long-only small-cap proxy sleeve
═
█ WHY NOW
FOMC day — the book is adding US small-cap exposure while macro headlines focus on Warsh, not on index levels.
Fresh 8H ALMA long fired 17 Jun 07:00 UTC on the 83% WR template. Live journal: one new leg on OV78 · three older 8H adds on a separate wr68 template still open ~flat — this publish tracks the wr83 entry only.
Context from the public ledger: US equities closed green into 16 Jun ( NASDAQ:SOXX +16%, broad US cash batch). Russell sleeve reloads after a quiet week — latest book exit on this symbol was +3% on a 12H ALMA leg (14 Jun). Open MTM on the fresh 8H leg ~flat at snapshot.
Not a “call the Fed” trade — ALMA flagged discount on the 8H bar into the Warsh press conference. Exits follow ALMA rules or the −10% hard stop; no discretionary TP ladder.
═
█ MACRO
FOMC / Warsh (owner frame): hold at ~3.50–3.75% is priced; the move is rhetoric. Soft tone (inflation “transitory”, debt-market support, DXY lower) = risk-on plumbing — small caps historically sensitive to liquidity and curve steepening. Hawkish tone + DXY through 101 = risk-off — cancels the stealth-liquidity thesis.
News tape (16–17 Jun): equities steady while oil slides under $78; Nasdaq firm vs BTC dip — stocks/crypto divergence back on the feed. SpaceX post-IPO rotation drains liquidity from mega-cap tech (headline risk for indices, but Russell can benefit from relative small-cap bid if risk holds).
Offsetting headwinds: market prices ~66% hike odds into the year (BeInCrypto / hawk narrative); small caps carry higher beta into any Warsh surprise. Iran/oil headline risk remains a macro tail — cheap oil helps soft-Fed story until geopolitics flip.
Russell = US domestic / rate-sensitive beta — execution is 8H ALMA mean-reversion, not an economic forecast.
═
█ OUTLOOK
Positive factors
- 83% WR / PF 4.0 on the Russell 8H ALMA setup · fresh 8H long 17 Jun 07:00Z
- US equities firm into 16 Jun · prior Russell exits May–Jun +2.5% to +3.4% on the same 8H template
- EMA — time vs average, price at line: 1H Cur S:5 vs Avg S:6.3 — below-session not yet overstretched (below avg); +0.4% dev = at 1H EMA . 1D Cur L:5 vs Avg L:15.3 — above-run young (5 vs avg 15.3 — far below norm), room vs typical daily stretch. 4H Cur L:20 vs Avg L:12.2 — overheated above by time (+65% vs avg), but −1.0% dev = price back at 4H EMA → time exhaustion into mean-reversion zone for 8H
- ALMA — below avg length = not stretched: 1D Cur S:1 vs Avg S:2.7 — first bar below, well under average short-session length · at band (~2962). 3D/1W Cur L:2 vs LAvg 3.5 / 4.0 — long sessions shorter than norm , slow grid not time-overheated above
- Daily SMC In FVG Bull — demand zone ~2991 still active below price
Negative factors
- FOMC gap risk on 8H bars — Warsh presser can gap through a %-based stop
- EMA — overheated above on slow TFs: 3D Cur L:21 vs Avg L:9.8 (~2× avg) · 1W Cur L:52 vs Avg L:14.9 (~3.5× avg) at −13.4% dev — time above EMA far exceeds normal ; macro uptrend, but shakeout risk before next leg
- ALMA — LTF still short, near avg: 1H Cur S:2 vs Avg S:3.8 · 4H Cur S:3 vs Avg S:3.0 — below ALMA, sessions not overstretched vs average yet → downside can extend before mean-reversion; needs daily band hold + 4H reclaim
- 4H EMA time-overheat (L:20 above avg 12.2) meeting the line — fail here = resistance stack into FOMC
- Correlated Russell exposure if small caps roll over · 6H/12H adds can scale size if discount extends
- Past backtest ≠ live fills on CFD (spread, session gaps)
Base case: 4H EMA time-overheat (L:20 above avg) resolves at the line · 1D ALMA hold (S:1 well under avg 2.7) · young 3D/1W ALMA long (L:2 under avg) carries — drift toward ~2990 FVG if Warsh soft.
Bear case: 1W/3D EMA time stretch unwinds (L:52 / L:21 far above avg) · 1H–4H ALMA below sessions extend toward their averages before bounce · lose daily ALMA · −10% hard stop.
Long
67,600 or 62,500 — It All Depends on 64,890Hello, friends🌴
Today I won't go into too much detail and will simply add a few thoughts to yesterday's idea:
«EMA 100 (4H) can be considered the first support level from which the price may bounce. The second support level is 64,890, which represents the lower boundary of the trading range.»
As we can see on the chart, the first support level represented by EMA 100 (4H) did not work at all yesterday, and the price sliced right through it without any hesitation❌🔪🔪🔪
✅✅✅However, the second level at 64,890 that I mentioned yesterday is working right now, and so far the bounce looks pretty solid. To confirm a local reversal, we need to see several consecutive green 4-hour candles. In that case, the probability of another move toward 67,600 increases significantly.
I highlighted the 64,890 support level in bold because the price reaction in this area will very likely determine the next short-term move: 67,600💰 or 62,500⚰️
Peace!💎 Broadcom: Stairs up and elevator down?Broadcom has dropped from a record high in early June. That could make some traders ask if the chip stock took the stairs up and is now taking the elevator down.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the bearish gap on June 4 following mixed results and guidance. AVGO has continued lower without even attempting to fill the gap. That may suggest sellers are in control.
Second is the June 8 close of $396.60. The stock has been unable to close above that level since, which could reflect the establishment of new resistance.
Third, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has crossed below the 21-day EMA and MACD is falling. Those signals may be consistent with a short-term downtrend.
Fourth, the 21-day EMA has slipped beneath the 50-day simple moving average. That previously occurred in late December, and was followed by months of weakness. (See the orange arrows.)
Fifth is a potential price zone between roughly $295 and $300. Could potential buyers look for more movement toward the area before stepping in?
Finally, AVGO is an active underlier in the options market. (Its average daily volume of 301,500 contracts ranks 16th in the S&P 500, according to TradeStation data.) That could help traders take positions with calls and puts.
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