OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
The Acute Grief Curve
ACUTE GRIEF CURVE - a momentum oscillator for a market in mourning, for crypto
Price action is just is a grief chart. It's a running tally of how a few
million strangers feel about money they no longer have.
WHERE IT COMES FROM
In 1962 a technician named Edwin Coppock got hired by the Episcopal Church to
tell them when to buy after a crash. He decided a market clawing out of a bear
feels like a person clawing out of mourning - same shock, same numbness, same
long stupid crawl back - so he asked the clergy how long grief lasts.
They said 11 to 14 months. He typed those two numbers into a rate-of-change formula and
called it a day. That is the Coppock Curve.
WHY THE ORIGINAL DIES ON CRYPTO
Point standard Coppock at the total crypto market cap and it flatlines. Crypto went from three billion to four trillion. Early on it printed 16,000% moves; lately it prints 50% and calls it a bull run. On raw percentages the toddler years bury everything that came after, so the curve pins itself above zero for eight straight years and only dips under in 2022, once, like a smoke detector that exclusively activates during cremation.
An indicator that signals once a decade is just a commemorative plate.
So I rebuilt it.
HOW IT'S DIFFERENT
1. The Yale Bereavement Study (JAMA 2007) tracked grieving people month by month and found yearning peaks around month 4 and depression bottoms out around month 6. That's the wound. Coppock's 11–14 months is the part where the widow has already repainted the kitchen. This curve uses the 6- and 4-month rate-of-change - the actual bottom of the despair - smoothed over 5 periods, because a crowd of leveraged strangers speedruns the five stages of grief in about a long weekend, and you want the indicator watching the screaming, not the kitchen.
2. Log price, because crypto has no sense of scale. Comparing a 16,000% move to
a 50% move on a normal axis is like comparing a supernova to a birthday candle
and concluding they're both fire. Log pricing makes the math behave so the
curve oscillates around zero like a functioning adult across every cycle. You
can switch it off and watch it relapse into the classic version if you enjoy
that sort of thing.
3. A volatility filter that knows hope is a liar. This comes from the Dual
Process Model of grieving (Stroebe & Schut), which says recovery isn't a line,
it's a flailing back-and-forth nightmare, and the tell that you're really healing is
that the flailing gets quieter. Volatility is a market's flailing. So every
time the curve turns up, the indicator checks whether the shaking is calming
down or just catching its breath.
THE TWO SIGNALS
ACCEPTANCE ONSET (green): the curve turns up from below zero AND volatility is
contracting. The thrashing is subsiding. Acceptance is winning. In a market
this is the closest thing to good news, which is to say you've stopped
screaming and you're choosing to interpret that optimistically.
FALSE REPRIEVE (amber): same turn up, but volatility is still expanding. This
is the corpse twitching. You see the twitch, you call it a recovery, you re-
long with conviction, and the corpse remains, professionally, a corpse. Every
bear-market rally that ever ruined someone lives here.
Telling those two apart is the whole job. It's the difference between "the
worst is over" and "the worst would like a word."
HOW TO READ IT
Blue line is the curve. The shaded bit below zero is the acute grief zone, aka
where your timeline goes silent and the inspirational posters come out.
Background tint shows the volatility type - teal means contracting (healing),
red means expanding (don't). Signals print in the pane and on price. Optional
comparison curves let you plot the original 11–14 month clergy Coppock and the
useless-for-crypto 12–24 month integration version, so you can see, in public,
why the slow one would still be holding bags.
INPUTS
Periods are defined in MONTHS and auto-scale to your timeframe, so the grief
stays the same length whether you're on monthly, weekly, or daily. Everything's
adjustable - the peaks, the smoothing, the volatility window, the log toggle,
the filter, the shading. Alerts included, in case you want to be notified the
exact moment the market accepts its fate.
OMG USE YOUR HEAD, THIS IS A WORK IN PROGRESS
This is a context gauge, not a trade trigger. The filter is conservative - it distrusts sharp V-bottoms, because on those the volatility never calms down, which means it flagged the COVID low as suspicious. The COVID low was the buy of the decade. So yes, it's cautious the way a man on his third divorce is cautious about second dates: not always right, but you
understand where it's coming from. Volatility can also fake the green light
mid-bounce. Use it next to real market structure and your own judgment, both
of which are also flawed, but at least they're free.
It describes the emotional state of a market. It does not predict the future.
Neither do you. Neither do I (well, privately to myself I do). Now you have company.
This is an original reworking of the Coppock Curve - different periods, a log
construction, and a volatility-regime classifier bolted on from grief research,
not a stock indicator with the inputs nudged. Credit where due: Edwin Coppock
(1962), Maciejewski et al. (JAMA, 2007), and Stroebe & Schut.
Not financial advice. If you lose money using a grief indicator... I have nothing.
Price action is just is a grief chart. It's a running tally of how a few
million strangers feel about money they no longer have.
WHERE IT COMES FROM
In 1962 a technician named Edwin Coppock got hired by the Episcopal Church to
tell them when to buy after a crash. He decided a market clawing out of a bear
feels like a person clawing out of mourning - same shock, same numbness, same
long stupid crawl back - so he asked the clergy how long grief lasts.
They said 11 to 14 months. He typed those two numbers into a rate-of-change formula and
called it a day. That is the Coppock Curve.
WHY THE ORIGINAL DIES ON CRYPTO
Point standard Coppock at the total crypto market cap and it flatlines. Crypto went from three billion to four trillion. Early on it printed 16,000% moves; lately it prints 50% and calls it a bull run. On raw percentages the toddler years bury everything that came after, so the curve pins itself above zero for eight straight years and only dips under in 2022, once, like a smoke detector that exclusively activates during cremation.
An indicator that signals once a decade is just a commemorative plate.
So I rebuilt it.
HOW IT'S DIFFERENT
1. The Yale Bereavement Study (JAMA 2007) tracked grieving people month by month and found yearning peaks around month 4 and depression bottoms out around month 6. That's the wound. Coppock's 11–14 months is the part where the widow has already repainted the kitchen. This curve uses the 6- and 4-month rate-of-change - the actual bottom of the despair - smoothed over 5 periods, because a crowd of leveraged strangers speedruns the five stages of grief in about a long weekend, and you want the indicator watching the screaming, not the kitchen.
2. Log price, because crypto has no sense of scale. Comparing a 16,000% move to
a 50% move on a normal axis is like comparing a supernova to a birthday candle
and concluding they're both fire. Log pricing makes the math behave so the
curve oscillates around zero like a functioning adult across every cycle. You
can switch it off and watch it relapse into the classic version if you enjoy
that sort of thing.
3. A volatility filter that knows hope is a liar. This comes from the Dual
Process Model of grieving (Stroebe & Schut), which says recovery isn't a line,
it's a flailing back-and-forth nightmare, and the tell that you're really healing is
that the flailing gets quieter. Volatility is a market's flailing. So every
time the curve turns up, the indicator checks whether the shaking is calming
down or just catching its breath.
THE TWO SIGNALS
ACCEPTANCE ONSET (green): the curve turns up from below zero AND volatility is
contracting. The thrashing is subsiding. Acceptance is winning. In a market
this is the closest thing to good news, which is to say you've stopped
screaming and you're choosing to interpret that optimistically.
FALSE REPRIEVE (amber): same turn up, but volatility is still expanding. This
is the corpse twitching. You see the twitch, you call it a recovery, you re-
long with conviction, and the corpse remains, professionally, a corpse. Every
bear-market rally that ever ruined someone lives here.
Telling those two apart is the whole job. It's the difference between "the
worst is over" and "the worst would like a word."
HOW TO READ IT
Blue line is the curve. The shaded bit below zero is the acute grief zone, aka
where your timeline goes silent and the inspirational posters come out.
Background tint shows the volatility type - teal means contracting (healing),
red means expanding (don't). Signals print in the pane and on price. Optional
comparison curves let you plot the original 11–14 month clergy Coppock and the
useless-for-crypto 12–24 month integration version, so you can see, in public,
why the slow one would still be holding bags.
INPUTS
Periods are defined in MONTHS and auto-scale to your timeframe, so the grief
stays the same length whether you're on monthly, weekly, or daily. Everything's
adjustable - the peaks, the smoothing, the volatility window, the log toggle,
the filter, the shading. Alerts included, in case you want to be notified the
exact moment the market accepts its fate.
OMG USE YOUR HEAD, THIS IS A WORK IN PROGRESS
This is a context gauge, not a trade trigger. The filter is conservative - it distrusts sharp V-bottoms, because on those the volatility never calms down, which means it flagged the COVID low as suspicious. The COVID low was the buy of the decade. So yes, it's cautious the way a man on his third divorce is cautious about second dates: not always right, but you
understand where it's coming from. Volatility can also fake the green light
mid-bounce. Use it next to real market structure and your own judgment, both
of which are also flawed, but at least they're free.
It describes the emotional state of a market. It does not predict the future.
Neither do you. Neither do I (well, privately to myself I do). Now you have company.
This is an original reworking of the Coppock Curve - different periods, a log
construction, and a volatility-regime classifier bolted on from grief research,
not a stock indicator with the inputs nudged. Credit where due: Edwin Coppock
(1962), Maciejewski et al. (JAMA, 2007), and Stroebe & Schut.
Not financial advice. If you lose money using a grief indicator... I have nothing.
نص برمجي مفتوح المصدر
بروح TradingView الحقيقية، قام مبتكر هذا النص البرمجي بجعله مفتوح المصدر، بحيث يمكن للمتداولين مراجعة وظائفه والتحقق منها. شكرا للمؤلف! بينما يمكنك استخدامه مجانًا، تذكر أن إعادة نشر الكود يخضع لقواعد الموقع الخاصة بنا.
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.
نص برمجي مفتوح المصدر
بروح TradingView الحقيقية، قام مبتكر هذا النص البرمجي بجعله مفتوح المصدر، بحيث يمكن للمتداولين مراجعة وظائفه والتحقق منها. شكرا للمؤلف! بينما يمكنك استخدامه مجانًا، تذكر أن إعادة نشر الكود يخضع لقواعد الموقع الخاصة بنا.
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.