Oil market might have entered a key week. While end of US shutdown is in spotlight, 3 key reports will be released tomorrow. International Energy Agency will release November report. In the October report, IAE said that record oil surplus is expected in 2026. Oil demand expected to rise by 750 kb/d for both 2025 and 2026 while supply is expected to rise 3 mb/d for 2025 and 2.4 mb/d for 2026. Meaning oil surplus is expected to exceed demand by nearly 4 mb/d in 2026.
On top of IEA report OPEC will publish its monthly oil market report and EIA will publish monthly short-term energy outlook report in Wednesday.
So far, composite forecasts and forward prices suggest that the market expects oil to remain near current levels in 2026. Projections indicate that in the first and second quarters of 2026, Brent will trade close to 60, with WTI slightly below that level before a potential recovery later in the year. However, futures and spreads have not yet been priced in a low Q1-Q2.
Only two factors come to mind that could lift oil prices in 2026. The first is a surge in global energy demand that draws consumption back toward oil as prices stay low. The second is a worsening of the Ukraine–Russia war, which could lead to additional restrictions on Russian oil and more attacks on refineries. Beyond these possibilities, oil still faces a risk of trending lower.
Brent oil has been in a downtrend for some time, and this trend is likely to continue in the medium term. Since the start of the year, the 60 level has acted as the main support. The price has dipped below it three times, but each instance was only a one-day spike.
While 60 continues to hold, Brent is forming lower highs, which increases pressure on the support. In the event of a breakdown, the base case points to a decline toward the 54–55 zone, with a possible extension to 48 in a worst-case scenario.
This week’s reports will be key for shaping 2026 expectations and could trigger preemptive price action in either direction.
On top of IEA report OPEC will publish its monthly oil market report and EIA will publish monthly short-term energy outlook report in Wednesday.
So far, composite forecasts and forward prices suggest that the market expects oil to remain near current levels in 2026. Projections indicate that in the first and second quarters of 2026, Brent will trade close to 60, with WTI slightly below that level before a potential recovery later in the year. However, futures and spreads have not yet been priced in a low Q1-Q2.
Only two factors come to mind that could lift oil prices in 2026. The first is a surge in global energy demand that draws consumption back toward oil as prices stay low. The second is a worsening of the Ukraine–Russia war, which could lead to additional restrictions on Russian oil and more attacks on refineries. Beyond these possibilities, oil still faces a risk of trending lower.
Brent oil has been in a downtrend for some time, and this trend is likely to continue in the medium term. Since the start of the year, the 60 level has acted as the main support. The price has dipped below it three times, but each instance was only a one-day spike.
While 60 continues to hold, Brent is forming lower highs, which increases pressure on the support. In the event of a breakdown, the base case points to a decline toward the 54–55 zone, with a possible extension to 48 in a worst-case scenario.
This week’s reports will be key for shaping 2026 expectations and could trigger preemptive price action in either direction.
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Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.