As predicted, BTC continues its bullish structure with a Micro Degree (light green ① ② ③ ④ ⑤) channel now forming. Within third waves it's generally not worth trading in and out — impulses tend to run further than expected. Best exits will be at confluence of resistance between the Micro Degree trend channel and the larger Minuette Degree channel (orange (i)(ii)(iii)(iv)(v)).
Long Term Analysis:
Micro Wave 2 and Sub Micro Wave 2 (gray (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)) were both zigzags, so their Wave 4 counterparts are likely to be flats, double zigzags, or triangles. If a correction develops over the weekend, watch for triangle structures specifically — zigzags are possible but low probability, so don't rule out any correction type except as a primary expectation.
The green dotted line above and yellow dotted line below mark the likely extension zones. In a third wave, momentum can accelerate fast — longs pile on, shorts get squeezed, and price moves further than most anticipate.
No shorts on my radar until Micro 4 at the earliest, and more likely not until Subminuette 4 (yellow iv).
The marked invalidation level applies to the Sub Micro (gray) count only — if it breaks there are still multiple bullish alternatives. I will exit my long there if it breaks though, while I try to figure out what's going on. The next 48 hours should be strongly bullish. If we're not seeing 3-5% daily moves, that's its own warning signal — though it won't push me out of an already deeply profitable long. I'd trim and wait for price to clarify before adding back.
Longer term: There are plenty of voices on X married to the bear market narrative, and I expect many will keep labeling this a B wave all the way up. My view is new highs by July, though there's a credible case this impulse only reaches ~$108K. Channel breaks, wave extensions, and momentum will tell us which it is. Monitor, don't predict.
Enjoy the ride if you're long. If you're short… yikes.
Long Term Analysis:
Micro Wave 2 and Sub Micro Wave 2 (gray (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)) were both zigzags, so their Wave 4 counterparts are likely to be flats, double zigzags, or triangles. If a correction develops over the weekend, watch for triangle structures specifically — zigzags are possible but low probability, so don't rule out any correction type except as a primary expectation.
The green dotted line above and yellow dotted line below mark the likely extension zones. In a third wave, momentum can accelerate fast — longs pile on, shorts get squeezed, and price moves further than most anticipate.
No shorts on my radar until Micro 4 at the earliest, and more likely not until Subminuette 4 (yellow iv).
The marked invalidation level applies to the Sub Micro (gray) count only — if it breaks there are still multiple bullish alternatives. I will exit my long there if it breaks though, while I try to figure out what's going on. The next 48 hours should be strongly bullish. If we're not seeing 3-5% daily moves, that's its own warning signal — though it won't push me out of an already deeply profitable long. I'd trim and wait for price to clarify before adding back.
Longer term: There are plenty of voices on X married to the bear market narrative, and I expect many will keep labeling this a B wave all the way up. My view is new highs by July, though there's a credible case this impulse only reaches ~$108K. Channel breaks, wave extensions, and momentum will tell us which it is. Monitor, don't predict.
Enjoy the ride if you're long. If you're short… yikes.
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.