Market Structure & Trend
Bitcoin is clearly in a macro downtrend on the daily timeframe.
This is classic bear market retracement → continuation behavior.
Fibonacci & Key Levels
Measured from the swing high to the December low:
Key downside liquidity targets:
That 54,900 area is the real magnet if fear hits.
RSI & Momentum
Fundamental Catalyst – FOMC Risk
This week’s FOMC meeting is a major volatility trigger.
If:
Crypto does not like that environment, and BTC typically reacts fast and hard.
Technicals already point lower — FOMC can be the fuel.
Trade Plan – Short Setup (Primary Bias)
Entry (Sell)
Option 1 – Aggressive
Option 2 – Conservative
Stop Loss
Take Profit Targets
Scale out — don’t be greedy.
Trade Management (Very Important)
Once trade is +3,000 points in profit:
This protects capital while keeping you in for the flush.
Invalidation
This bearish setup is invalid if:
Until then — rallies are sells.
Bottom Line
This chart is distribution → breakdown → weak retracement → continuation.
If FOMC delivers even mild hawkish surprise, Bitcoin has clean air below and a very real path toward 70k and potentially mid-50s.
Trade it like a professional:
Bitcoin is clearly in a macro downtrend on the daily timeframe.
- Price has broken market structure from the October high and continues to print lower highs and lower lows
- The recent upside move was corrective, not impulsive — price failed below the 0.382–0.5 Fibonacci retracement zone
- BTC was rejected from a key supply zone / prior distribution range (highlighted red box)
- Long-term ascending trendline has been decisively broken
- Momentum is rolling over again after a weak bounce
This is classic bear market retracement → continuation behavior.
Fibonacci & Key Levels
Measured from the swing high to the December low:
- 0.382–0.5 Fib zone acted as resistance (clean rejection)
- Failure to reclaim 0.5 confirms sellers remain in control
- Price is now threatening continuation toward major liquidity below
Key downside liquidity targets:
- 80,000 (local support, likely to break)
- 72,000–70,000 (next liquidity pocket)
- 55,000–54,000 (major HTF demand and prior accumulation base)
That 54,900 area is the real magnet if fear hits.
RSI & Momentum
- RSI rolled over from mid-range, failed to regain bullish territory
- No bullish divergence present
- Momentum favors continuation lower, not reversal
Fundamental Catalyst – FOMC Risk
This week’s FOMC meeting is a major volatility trigger.
If:
- Powell stays hawkish
- Rates stay higher for longer
- Liquidity expectations get pushed out
Crypto does not like that environment, and BTC typically reacts fast and hard.
Technicals already point lower — FOMC can be the fuel.
Trade Plan – Short Setup (Primary Bias)
Entry (Sell)
Option 1 – Aggressive
- Sell on a daily close below 84,000
Option 2 – Conservative
- Sell on a pullback into 86,500–88,000 (prior support turned resistance)
Stop Loss
- Initial SL: 91,500
- Above supply zone and failed Fib reclaim
- If price gets here, the bearish thesis is invalidated
Take Profit Targets
Scale out — don’t be greedy.
- TP1: 80,000
- TP2: 72,000
- TP3 (Runner): 55,000–54,000 HTF demand zone
Trade Management (Very Important)
Once trade is +3,000 points in profit:
- Move Stop Loss to Breakeven +1,000 points
- Activate trailing stop of 3,000 points
- Let volatility work for you — especially during FOMC
This protects capital while keeping you in for the flush.
Invalidation
This bearish setup is invalid if:
- BTC reclaims and holds above 92,000 on a daily close
- Strong bullish displacement through the supply zone
Until then — rallies are sells.
Bottom Line
This chart is distribution → breakdown → weak retracement → continuation.
If FOMC delivers even mild hawkish surprise, Bitcoin has clean air below and a very real path toward 70k and potentially mid-50s.
Trade it like a professional:
- Defined risk
- Mechanical execution
- No emotional attachment
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Publicações relacionadas
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.
➡️ Managed Forex Accounts manage.forex
➡️ Passing Services wepasschallenges.com
➡️ Premium Expert Advisors iqalgos.com
➡️ 1-on-1 Mentorship miamitradingacademy.com
➡️ Best Prop Firm | 15% Off Code "MIKE15" @ 8figuretrader.com
➡️ Passing Services wepasschallenges.com
➡️ Premium Expert Advisors iqalgos.com
➡️ 1-on-1 Mentorship miamitradingacademy.com
➡️ Best Prop Firm | 15% Off Code "MIKE15" @ 8figuretrader.com
Publicações relacionadas
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.