Current Level: 24,800 Points
Timeframe: Weekly & Monthly
1. Market Overview
Hello TradingView followers. Today, we are analyzing the German DAX index on weekly and monthly timeframes to evaluate its medium to long-term outlook.
Since its 2022 low around 12,000, the DAX has maintained a strong upward trend, recently testing historical highs near 25,500. Following a correction down to 22,500 in April 2026, the 25,000 level has now become a critical psychological resistance zone.
2. Technical and Volume Analysis
Looking closely at the indicators and chart structures, the upward momentum shows significant signs of exhaustion:
Volume & Capital Outflow (OBV): The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator signals long-term capital outflows starting on the weekly chart. This bearish signal intensifies on the monthly periyot, showing that institutional support is fading.
Regression Channels: The DAX lacks a genuine, sustainable uptrend on the monthly chart. Trading near the lower band of the Linear Regression Channel suggests that the upward move is ending, creating an excellent risk-reward opportunity for short (sell) positions.
Momentum & Formations: Both Momentum and RSI show a flat-to-downward loss of speed. More importantly, based on Fibonacci levels, a Monthly Harmonic Reversal Formation is perfectly active on the macro chart, confirming a potential top structure.
3. Macroeconomic & Geopolitical Risks
This technical weakness is strongly aligned with escalating global risks that directly pressure the European economy:
Rising geopolitical tensions in the US-Iran-Israel triangle.
The ongoing energy supply crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, driving expectations for a sharp upward spike in oil prices.
The economic drag of the continuous Russia-Ukraine war on the Eurozone's energy and raw material costs.
4. Conclusion and Targets
In conclusion, massive capital outflows, a monthly harmonic reversal pattern, and deepening geopolitical crises suggest that the tide has turned for the DAX.
As selling pressure builds in the coming weeks, we expect the index to test our downside targets sequentially at: 24,444 – 23,850 – and 23,360. Breaking below these levels could trigger panic selling and a much sharper correction. We recommend strict risk management and focusing on short-oriented strategies.
Good luck with your trades, see you on the charts!
Timeframe: Weekly & Monthly
1. Market Overview
Hello TradingView followers. Today, we are analyzing the German DAX index on weekly and monthly timeframes to evaluate its medium to long-term outlook.
Since its 2022 low around 12,000, the DAX has maintained a strong upward trend, recently testing historical highs near 25,500. Following a correction down to 22,500 in April 2026, the 25,000 level has now become a critical psychological resistance zone.
2. Technical and Volume Analysis
Looking closely at the indicators and chart structures, the upward momentum shows significant signs of exhaustion:
Volume & Capital Outflow (OBV): The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator signals long-term capital outflows starting on the weekly chart. This bearish signal intensifies on the monthly periyot, showing that institutional support is fading.
Regression Channels: The DAX lacks a genuine, sustainable uptrend on the monthly chart. Trading near the lower band of the Linear Regression Channel suggests that the upward move is ending, creating an excellent risk-reward opportunity for short (sell) positions.
Momentum & Formations: Both Momentum and RSI show a flat-to-downward loss of speed. More importantly, based on Fibonacci levels, a Monthly Harmonic Reversal Formation is perfectly active on the macro chart, confirming a potential top structure.
3. Macroeconomic & Geopolitical Risks
This technical weakness is strongly aligned with escalating global risks that directly pressure the European economy:
Rising geopolitical tensions in the US-Iran-Israel triangle.
The ongoing energy supply crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, driving expectations for a sharp upward spike in oil prices.
The economic drag of the continuous Russia-Ukraine war on the Eurozone's energy and raw material costs.
4. Conclusion and Targets
In conclusion, massive capital outflows, a monthly harmonic reversal pattern, and deepening geopolitical crises suggest that the tide has turned for the DAX.
As selling pressure builds in the coming weeks, we expect the index to test our downside targets sequentially at: 24,444 – 23,850 – and 23,360. Breaking below these levels could trigger panic selling and a much sharper correction. We recommend strict risk management and focusing on short-oriented strategies.
Good luck with your trades, see you on the charts!
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.