ETH Trade Plan (December 8, 2025)
(D1 / H4 / H1 / M15)
⬛️ 1. Higher Timeframe Context (D1 and H4)
• D1 bias: neutral (bullish reversal attempt)
• D1 range (approx): $2,800 – $3,762
• Key D1 zones:
• Supply: $3,350–$3,762 (previous breakdown + OB cluster)
• Demand: $2,800–$3,050
• H4 bias: buy dips
• H4 zones of interest:
• H4 Sell Zone 1: [$3,250 – $3,350] – previous rejection cluster (decaying)
• H4 Buy Zone 1: [$3,100 – $3,150] – OB + HVN + weekend absorption
All active setups are trend-aligned with emerging H4/D1 bullish structure.
⬛️ 2. Preferred Setups by Horizon
🔳 2.1 Swing Setup (D1/H4)
• Idea: Long dips into $3,100–$3,150 for retest $3,500+ (post-Fusaka accumulation).
• Time horizon: multi-day.
🔲 2.2 Intraday Setup (H1 focus)
• Idea: Long reclaim/break $3,150–$3,190 zone.
• Time horizon: today / overnight.
▫️ 2.3 Scalp Setup (M15 focus)
• Idea: Dip-buy $3,100–$3,110 with absorption or breakout >$3,140.
• Time horizon: minutes–hours.
▪️ 2.4 Arbitrage/Pairs Concept
• Long ETH/BTC ratio – defending key support, mean-reversion bias up.
🟩 3. Entry Zones and Triggers
Main Long Setup (Trend-Aligned)
• Execution timeframe: H1
• Trigger timeframe: M15/M5
• Entry zone: [$3,100 – $3,140]
• Context: H4 demand + weekend sweep reclaim + institutional spot buying
• Pattern tags: [liquidity_sweep_reclaim, ob_retest_continuation, absorption_at_level, liquidation_spike_reversal]
Trigger conditions:
• Price holds $3,100 bid cluster + M15 bullish structure (higher low + volume delta buy)
• CVD positive or diverging bullish
• ML-Predictive 15m upside prob ≥0.65
• No aggressive ask walls rebuilding
🔴 4. Stops (Invalidation Levels)
Long setups:
• Stop: $3,045 (below weekend low + H4 demand)
• Logic: Structural failure, CHoCH down confirmed.
🟢 5. Targets
Long:
• TP1: $3,190 – local supply + FVG fill (H1/H4)
• TP2: $3,350 – supply retest + LVN void (H4/D1)
• TP3 (swing): $3,600+ – next HVN + extension (D1)
⬛️ 6. Position Sizing
• Baseline risk trend-aligned: 1.0%
• Adjustments: −0.2× (put skew + weekend tail) +0.1× (strong absorption + news)
• Effective risk: 0.9% main long, max 0.4% aggressive scalps
⬛️ 7. Risk Flags
• Persistent put skew → vol expansion downside risk
• Weekend liquidity memory (potential gap lower Asia)
• High OI + neutral funding → crowded long risk if macro flips
• Death cross D1 still active (macro timeframe bearish pressure)
⬛️ 8. Flip Conditions
Bull → bear flip: H4 close < $3,050 + CVD strongly negative + funding negative.
⬛️ 9. Alternative Scenario
Fakeout above $3,190 → sharp rejection (spoofing + gamma) → trap longs → drop to $2,950–$3,000 (next demand + round number). Requires delta selling + macro risk-off trigger.
⬛️ 10. Model Self-Critique
• Main assumptions: Fusaka narrative sustains buying, institutional accumulation continues, no macro shock.
• Vulnerabilities: put skew buyers re-assert, whale distribution at supply, weekend gap lower, misread absorption.
• Do NOT chase extended above $3,200 without volume. Do NOT hold through Asia low liquidity without tight stops.
⬛️ 11. Uncertainty and Constraints
Uncertainty: medium
Constraints: require M15 confirmation + positive delta, no entries above $3,200, reduce size into NY close if no volume.
(D1 / H4 / H1 / M15)
⬛️ 1. Higher Timeframe Context (D1 and H4)
• D1 bias: neutral (bullish reversal attempt)
• D1 range (approx): $2,800 – $3,762
• Key D1 zones:
• Supply: $3,350–$3,762 (previous breakdown + OB cluster)
• Demand: $2,800–$3,050
• H4 bias: buy dips
• H4 zones of interest:
• H4 Sell Zone 1: [$3,250 – $3,350] – previous rejection cluster (decaying)
• H4 Buy Zone 1: [$3,100 – $3,150] – OB + HVN + weekend absorption
All active setups are trend-aligned with emerging H4/D1 bullish structure.
⬛️ 2. Preferred Setups by Horizon
🔳 2.1 Swing Setup (D1/H4)
• Idea: Long dips into $3,100–$3,150 for retest $3,500+ (post-Fusaka accumulation).
• Time horizon: multi-day.
🔲 2.2 Intraday Setup (H1 focus)
• Idea: Long reclaim/break $3,150–$3,190 zone.
• Time horizon: today / overnight.
▫️ 2.3 Scalp Setup (M15 focus)
• Idea: Dip-buy $3,100–$3,110 with absorption or breakout >$3,140.
• Time horizon: minutes–hours.
▪️ 2.4 Arbitrage/Pairs Concept
• Long ETH/BTC ratio – defending key support, mean-reversion bias up.
🟩 3. Entry Zones and Triggers
Main Long Setup (Trend-Aligned)
• Execution timeframe: H1
• Trigger timeframe: M15/M5
• Entry zone: [$3,100 – $3,140]
• Context: H4 demand + weekend sweep reclaim + institutional spot buying
• Pattern tags: [liquidity_sweep_reclaim, ob_retest_continuation, absorption_at_level, liquidation_spike_reversal]
Trigger conditions:
• Price holds $3,100 bid cluster + M15 bullish structure (higher low + volume delta buy)
• CVD positive or diverging bullish
• ML-Predictive 15m upside prob ≥0.65
• No aggressive ask walls rebuilding
🔴 4. Stops (Invalidation Levels)
Long setups:
• Stop: $3,045 (below weekend low + H4 demand)
• Logic: Structural failure, CHoCH down confirmed.
🟢 5. Targets
Long:
• TP1: $3,190 – local supply + FVG fill (H1/H4)
• TP2: $3,350 – supply retest + LVN void (H4/D1)
• TP3 (swing): $3,600+ – next HVN + extension (D1)
⬛️ 6. Position Sizing
• Baseline risk trend-aligned: 1.0%
• Adjustments: −0.2× (put skew + weekend tail) +0.1× (strong absorption + news)
• Effective risk: 0.9% main long, max 0.4% aggressive scalps
⬛️ 7. Risk Flags
• Persistent put skew → vol expansion downside risk
• Weekend liquidity memory (potential gap lower Asia)
• High OI + neutral funding → crowded long risk if macro flips
• Death cross D1 still active (macro timeframe bearish pressure)
⬛️ 8. Flip Conditions
Bull → bear flip: H4 close < $3,050 + CVD strongly negative + funding negative.
⬛️ 9. Alternative Scenario
Fakeout above $3,190 → sharp rejection (spoofing + gamma) → trap longs → drop to $2,950–$3,000 (next demand + round number). Requires delta selling + macro risk-off trigger.
⬛️ 10. Model Self-Critique
• Main assumptions: Fusaka narrative sustains buying, institutional accumulation continues, no macro shock.
• Vulnerabilities: put skew buyers re-assert, whale distribution at supply, weekend gap lower, misread absorption.
• Do NOT chase extended above $3,200 without volume. Do NOT hold through Asia low liquidity without tight stops.
⬛️ 11. Uncertainty and Constraints
Uncertainty: medium
Constraints: require M15 confirmation + positive delta, no entries above $3,200, reduce size into NY close if no volume.
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As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.