1️⃣ Market Structure (Most Important)
• We had an uptrend (trend line, higher lows)
• A breakout from the trend occurred
• Price did not return above the line → structure changed to BEARISH/distribution
📉 This is not a bullish correction, but a full breakout of the structure
⸻
2️⃣ Key Price Levels
🟢 Former Supports (Now Resistances)
• $4,015 – Major Weekly Supply ❌
• $3,435 – Strong Resistance after Distribution ❌
• $2,787 – Key Support ➜ Broken by Impulse
➡️ 2,787 = Now Resistance, Not Support
⸻
🔴 Current Situation
• Price: ~$2,340
• We are just above the local low
• Weak demand response, no strong Wicks
⸻
3️⃣ Momentum Indicators
🔹 Stochastic RSI
• Falling into oversold
• No clear upward crossover
📌 In a downtrend → not a long signal, but a warning for shorts
⸻
🔹 RSI (classic)
• Below 50
• Rejected from the mean
➡️ Bearish Momentum
⸻
4️⃣ Scenarios (realistic)
🔴 Baseline Scenario (60–70%)
• Short bounce to 2600–2800
• Rejection at former support
• Continuation of declines to:
• $2230 (local low)
• ~$2000 (psychological + liquidity)
• $1455 (weekly demand – (extreme)
⸻
🟡 Alternative scenario (30–40%)
• Defense 2230–2340
• Consolidation
• Attempt to return above 2787
❗ Only a weekly close > 2800 changes the bias
• We had an uptrend (trend line, higher lows)
• A breakout from the trend occurred
• Price did not return above the line → structure changed to BEARISH/distribution
📉 This is not a bullish correction, but a full breakout of the structure
⸻
2️⃣ Key Price Levels
🟢 Former Supports (Now Resistances)
• $4,015 – Major Weekly Supply ❌
• $3,435 – Strong Resistance after Distribution ❌
• $2,787 – Key Support ➜ Broken by Impulse
➡️ 2,787 = Now Resistance, Not Support
⸻
🔴 Current Situation
• Price: ~$2,340
• We are just above the local low
• Weak demand response, no strong Wicks
⸻
3️⃣ Momentum Indicators
🔹 Stochastic RSI
• Falling into oversold
• No clear upward crossover
📌 In a downtrend → not a long signal, but a warning for shorts
⸻
🔹 RSI (classic)
• Below 50
• Rejected from the mean
➡️ Bearish Momentum
⸻
4️⃣ Scenarios (realistic)
🔴 Baseline Scenario (60–70%)
• Short bounce to 2600–2800
• Rejection at former support
• Continuation of declines to:
• $2230 (local low)
• ~$2000 (psychological + liquidity)
• $1455 (weekly demand – (extreme)
⸻
🟡 Alternative scenario (30–40%)
• Defense 2230–2340
• Consolidation
• Attempt to return above 2787
❗ Only a weekly close > 2800 changes the bias
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.