Fundamental approach:
- The euro was range-bound this week amid firm euro-area inflation signals and caution ahead of the key Fed communications, with sentiment also shaped by Eurozone Retail Sales and broader risk appetite drivers. The pair fluctuated as markets weighed stable eurozone core inflation against anticipated insights from the FOMC Minutes and Chair Powell's speech that could recalibrate US rate expectations.
- Eurostat's flash showed eurozone headline inflation ticked up to 2.2% in Sep while core held at 2.3%, reinforcing expectations the ECB will stay on hold, even as officials flagged a conditional scope for slight easing if downside risks rise. Fed minutes and Powell's remarks later in the week were set to guide the path for additional 2025 easing, with markets attentive to labor-market and inflation persistence language that could sway the dollar narrative.
- EURUSD could stabilize or firm if Fed communications lean dovish and euro-area data avoid downside surprises, but any hawkish inflection from the minutes may cap gains. Near-term catalysts include the FOMC minutes, Powell's speech, and eurozone activity data, which could shift rate differentials and drive volatility.
Technical approach:
- EURUSD broke the ascending trendline's lower bound. The price is below both EMAs, indicating a bearish momentum.
- If the EURUSD breaches the support at 1.5760, the price may head to the next support level at 1.1400.
- On the contrary, staying above 1.5760 may prompt EURUSD to retest both EMAs.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
- The euro was range-bound this week amid firm euro-area inflation signals and caution ahead of the key Fed communications, with sentiment also shaped by Eurozone Retail Sales and broader risk appetite drivers. The pair fluctuated as markets weighed stable eurozone core inflation against anticipated insights from the FOMC Minutes and Chair Powell's speech that could recalibrate US rate expectations.
- Eurostat's flash showed eurozone headline inflation ticked up to 2.2% in Sep while core held at 2.3%, reinforcing expectations the ECB will stay on hold, even as officials flagged a conditional scope for slight easing if downside risks rise. Fed minutes and Powell's remarks later in the week were set to guide the path for additional 2025 easing, with markets attentive to labor-market and inflation persistence language that could sway the dollar narrative.
- EURUSD could stabilize or firm if Fed communications lean dovish and euro-area data avoid downside surprises, but any hawkish inflection from the minutes may cap gains. Near-term catalysts include the FOMC minutes, Powell's speech, and eurozone activity data, which could shift rate differentials and drive volatility.
Technical approach:
- EURUSD broke the ascending trendline's lower bound. The price is below both EMAs, indicating a bearish momentum.
- If the EURUSD breaches the support at 1.5760, the price may head to the next support level at 1.1400.
- On the contrary, staying above 1.5760 may prompt EURUSD to retest both EMAs.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.