GLD — Sep 10 close400 failed. Another Gap Down Fade — opened under the level, tried to reclaim it at 401.15, then sold off all day to close 396.36, near the lows.
That's an MTF Break (ripster47 EMA cloud). The close is below 399.33, which was my line, so my long from 400 is done. I'll own that: I said at the time the bounce was unconfirmed — no Stopping Volume, no hammer, holding on an absence of sellers rather than any real buying. That's the version that gives way, and it did.
Volume finally showed up. 10.18M after three days of 9.8, 8.7, 8.0. The compression resolved, and it resolved down. Still below average though, so this is supply entering — not a climax, no capitulation.
Now the detail that matters: the low was 395.45. The Stopping Volume low is 395.51. It wicked six cents through and closed 85 cents back above.
So 400 is gone but 395 is not. My short trigger is a close below 395.51 — then 390, then 384. Until that prints, this is a level being tested, not broken.
All eyes on CPI tomorrow. Hot print is hawkish, dollar up, gold down. Cool print flips it. The data decides this level, not the chart — so I'd rather react to it than guess it.
Short trigger: close under 395.51. Long: nothing until 399.33 is reclaimed.
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