Beneath the Divergence Lies a Competition Between Two Pricing Methodologies
The first approach is "Pricing Based on Real-World Supply, Demand, and Capital Flows": This method emphasizes quantifiable variables such as current physical buying activity, central bank gold purchases, ETF holdings, and mine supply (global mine output is projected to see only a marginal increase of 1.2% in 2025). Its core logic posits that "prices are determined by marginal buying pressure." This paradigm performs exceptionally well in 2025—a period characterized by clear market trends and abundant liquidity—yet its predictive power diminishes significantly as the market enters the "chaotic phase" of macroeconomic variables in 2026.
The second approach is "Pricing Based on Macroeconomic Cycles and Risk Structures": This method focuses on long-term uncertainties—such as debt ceilings, the fragmentation of monetary systems, and the probability distribution of geopolitical "black swan" events. Its core logic asserts that "valuations are determined by systemic risk premiums." While this paradigm is more adept at identifying trend reversals, it remains susceptible to disruptions caused by short-term liquidity shocks.
At a deeper level, this divergence among institutions is not merely a dispute over specific price targets; rather, it represents a parallel interplay between two fundamentally distinct pricing paradigms.
The first approach is "Pricing Based on Real-World Supply, Demand, and Capital Flows": This method emphasizes quantifiable variables such as current physical buying activity, central bank gold purchases, ETF holdings, and mine supply (global mine output is projected to see only a marginal increase of 1.2% in 2025). Its core logic posits that "prices are determined by marginal buying pressure." This paradigm performs exceptionally well in 2025—a period characterized by clear market trends and abundant liquidity—yet its predictive power diminishes significantly as the market enters the "chaotic phase" of macroeconomic variables in 2026.
The second approach is "Pricing Based on Macroeconomic Cycles and Risk Structures": This method focuses on long-term uncertainties—such as debt ceilings, the fragmentation of monetary systems, and the probability distribution of geopolitical "black swan" events. Its core logic asserts that "valuations are determined by systemic risk premiums." While this paradigm is more adept at identifying trend reversals, it remains susceptible to disruptions caused by short-term liquidity shocks.
At a deeper level, this divergence among institutions is not merely a dispute over specific price targets; rather, it represents a parallel interplay between two fundamentally distinct pricing paradigms.
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.