HDFC Bank (NSE: HDFCBANK) | CMP 722.70 | Positional view
The stock is about 29% below its 2025 high of 1,020.5 and is now sitting on a zone that has held three times in four years (2022, early 2024 and now).
MONTHLY
- Very good support zone at roughly 640 to 682.
- September monthly candle: open 705.05, high 749.30, low 681.90, close 722.70. Sellers pushed it below 700 but could not hold it.
WEEKLY
- Double top near 1,020, then the higher high - higher low structure broke in early 2026.
- Now at support. The 681.90 low sits almost exactly on the March 2024 swing low, and the week printed a good hammer.
- It still needs to show a higher low and then a higher high. Until then every bounce is a bounce inside a downtrend.
DAILY
- After the 681.90 low the stock bounced to 749.30, failed there and pulled back to 722.70, making a higher low above 681.90.
- A daily close above 749.30 starts the bullish move and also clears the 50 DMA (728.14).
- Overhead levels: 784, 800, 843 (July high) and the 200 DMA at 820.85.
OPTION CHAIN (27 Oct expiry)
- Biggest call OI is at 750 (180.6 lakh), the same level as my trigger. A close above it puts call writers under pressure.
- Put OI is heaviest at 700 and 720 (92.2 and 88.8 lakh), which fits the demand zone below.
- PCR is about 0.71 across strikes 620 to 800, so the chain is call-heavy and upside is capped until 750 is cleared.
- The ATM straddle (720 call 19.35 + 720 put 17.70 = 37.05) prices a range of about 686 to 760 into expiry, right on my two key levels.
FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP
- Q1 FY27 profit Rs. 19,060 cr (+5% YoY), NII Rs. 33,534 cr (+6.7%), slightly below estimates.
- NIM 3.26% is the lowest on record. GNPA 1.17%, advances +15.4%.
- CEO retires on 26 Oct and the successor is pending. P/B has fallen from about 2.85 (Dec 2025) to 1.84.
PLAN (positional)
- Bullish only on a daily close above 749.30.
- Stop-loss: 703 (below the 29 Sep low of 706.25).
- Targets: 800, 843, 875. T1 is only about 1:1, so book part there and trail the rest.
- Failure: a daily close below 681.90 cancels the view and opens 637 (bottom of the zone) and lower.
EVENT RISK
Q2 results board meeting 17 Oct, CEO exit 26 Oct and expiry 27 Oct all fall within about ten days. Gap risk is real, so size down.
Not a recommendation. Educational analysis from public data. Do your own research and manage your risk.
The stock is about 29% below its 2025 high of 1,020.5 and is now sitting on a zone that has held three times in four years (2022, early 2024 and now).
MONTHLY
- Very good support zone at roughly 640 to 682.
- September monthly candle: open 705.05, high 749.30, low 681.90, close 722.70. Sellers pushed it below 700 but could not hold it.
WEEKLY
- Double top near 1,020, then the higher high - higher low structure broke in early 2026.
- Now at support. The 681.90 low sits almost exactly on the March 2024 swing low, and the week printed a good hammer.
- It still needs to show a higher low and then a higher high. Until then every bounce is a bounce inside a downtrend.
DAILY
- After the 681.90 low the stock bounced to 749.30, failed there and pulled back to 722.70, making a higher low above 681.90.
- A daily close above 749.30 starts the bullish move and also clears the 50 DMA (728.14).
- Overhead levels: 784, 800, 843 (July high) and the 200 DMA at 820.85.
OPTION CHAIN (27 Oct expiry)
- Biggest call OI is at 750 (180.6 lakh), the same level as my trigger. A close above it puts call writers under pressure.
- Put OI is heaviest at 700 and 720 (92.2 and 88.8 lakh), which fits the demand zone below.
- PCR is about 0.71 across strikes 620 to 800, so the chain is call-heavy and upside is capped until 750 is cleared.
- The ATM straddle (720 call 19.35 + 720 put 17.70 = 37.05) prices a range of about 686 to 760 into expiry, right on my two key levels.
FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP
- Q1 FY27 profit Rs. 19,060 cr (+5% YoY), NII Rs. 33,534 cr (+6.7%), slightly below estimates.
- NIM 3.26% is the lowest on record. GNPA 1.17%, advances +15.4%.
- CEO retires on 26 Oct and the successor is pending. P/B has fallen from about 2.85 (Dec 2025) to 1.84.
PLAN (positional)
- Bullish only on a daily close above 749.30.
- Stop-loss: 703 (below the 29 Sep low of 706.25).
- Targets: 800, 843, 875. T1 is only about 1:1, so book part there and trail the rest.
- Failure: a daily close below 681.90 cancels the view and opens 637 (bottom of the zone) and lower.
EVENT RISK
Q2 results board meeting 17 Oct, CEO exit 26 Oct and expiry 27 Oct all fall within about ten days. Gap risk is real, so size down.
Not a recommendation. Educational analysis from public data. Do your own research and manage your risk.
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.