█ SETUP
Intuitive Surgical ·
ISRG · 1mo · long only.
ALMA Averaging Strategy: ALMA 3 / σ2, SD band 2, min diff 1 bar to add / 1 bar to exit, 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, hard stop −10% from average entry.
Strategy Tester (ISRG 1mo):
Win rate 71% · profit factor 18.5 · max drawdown 73% (monthly equity curve — wide but high PF)
Typical hold ~12×1mo bars · surgical robotics mean-reversion sleeve
█ WHY NOW
Q3 US cash open — monthly ALMA long fired on 1 Jul 13:30 UTC
Fresh 1mo entry ~$397.68 — med-tech leader on a pullback into high-$390s, not a breakout chase. Mark since entry ~$407.05 (+2.4% open MTM).
Hard stop zone −10% from fill ~$357.90. Exits follow Pine ALMA flip + min diff or the hard stop.
═
█ MACRO
Sector: ISRG = da Vinci ecosystem — procedure growth, capital equipment cycle, hospital budgets.
Tape (1 Jul): Healthcare can outperform pure Mag7 beta when investors rotate to quality cash flows after a choppy macro month.
Execution is 1mo ALMA mean-reversion, not a procedure-growth forecast.
═
█ OUTLOOK
Positive factors
- 71% WR · PF 18.5 on the 1mo tester — payoff skew favors winners despite wide historical DD
- ALMA — 3D (near execution): LONG · L:1 vs LAvg:3.7 — young above-session on the 3d chart (not time-overheated)
- ALMA — 4H: LONG · L:2 vs LAvg:3.4 — young 4h sleeve tags the refill bar
- EMA — discount map: 4H→1W all Below at entry · 1W Dev +17.8% with Cur S:23 vs Avg S:5.1 — stretched below-EMA on slow TFs = mean-reversion fuel for the monthly long
- VWAP: fill ~$402.21 under nearest Resistance ~$408.48 (09 Jun anchor) — room to the swing-VWAP ceiling if bid returns
Negative factors
- ALMA — 1W headwind: SHORT · S:10 vs SAvg:3.5 — weekly ALMA time-overheated above-session on a SHORT signal · monthly long fights slow-TF band from above
- ALMA — 1D: SHORT · S:2 vs SAvg:4.0 — daily band still SHORT at entry
- SMC — 1D at fill (~$397.68): Not in FVG/OB zone — no fresh demand tag on the entry print · recent ladder = FVG Raid Bear steps from ~$402–406 (Jun)
- SMC — 1W: Not in FVG/OB on the 22 Jun weekly bar — no slow-TF demand pocket on the latest weekly structure
- VWAP overhead: active Resistance ~$429.72 / ~$464.81 above spot — ceiling ladder above $408
- Monthly DD in tester is wide (73%) — slow grid can draw down before mean-reversion
- Past backtest ≠ live fills
Takeaway: below-EMA stretch on 4H–1W and young 3D/4H ALMA support the monthly refill, but weekly ALMA SHORT overheating and absent SMC demand at the fill argue for a grind, not a V-recovery — respect the −10% hard stop.
Base case: follow the 1mo ALMA strategy · 3D/4H young LONG holds · slow reclaim toward $408–430 VWAP/ALMA zone.
Bear case: 1W SHORT ALMA extends · lose 3D band · −10% toward ~$358 hard stop.
Intuitive Surgical ·
ISRG · 1mo · long only.ALMA Averaging Strategy: ALMA 3 / σ2, SD band 2, min diff 1 bar to add / 1 bar to exit, 25% per bar, up to 4 adds, hard stop −10% from average entry.
Strategy Tester (ISRG 1mo):
Win rate 71% · profit factor 18.5 · max drawdown 73% (monthly equity curve — wide but high PF)
Typical hold ~12×1mo bars · surgical robotics mean-reversion sleeve
█ WHY NOW
Q3 US cash open — monthly ALMA long fired on 1 Jul 13:30 UTC
Fresh 1mo entry ~$397.68 — med-tech leader on a pullback into high-$390s, not a breakout chase. Mark since entry ~$407.05 (+2.4% open MTM).
Hard stop zone −10% from fill ~$357.90. Exits follow Pine ALMA flip + min diff or the hard stop.
═
█ MACRO
Sector: ISRG = da Vinci ecosystem — procedure growth, capital equipment cycle, hospital budgets.
Tape (1 Jul): Healthcare can outperform pure Mag7 beta when investors rotate to quality cash flows after a choppy macro month.
Execution is 1mo ALMA mean-reversion, not a procedure-growth forecast.
═
█ OUTLOOK
Positive factors
- 71% WR · PF 18.5 on the 1mo tester — payoff skew favors winners despite wide historical DD
- ALMA — 3D (near execution): LONG · L:1 vs LAvg:3.7 — young above-session on the 3d chart (not time-overheated)
- ALMA — 4H: LONG · L:2 vs LAvg:3.4 — young 4h sleeve tags the refill bar
- EMA — discount map: 4H→1W all Below at entry · 1W Dev +17.8% with Cur S:23 vs Avg S:5.1 — stretched below-EMA on slow TFs = mean-reversion fuel for the monthly long
- VWAP: fill ~$402.21 under nearest Resistance ~$408.48 (09 Jun anchor) — room to the swing-VWAP ceiling if bid returns
Negative factors
- ALMA — 1W headwind: SHORT · S:10 vs SAvg:3.5 — weekly ALMA time-overheated above-session on a SHORT signal · monthly long fights slow-TF band from above
- ALMA — 1D: SHORT · S:2 vs SAvg:4.0 — daily band still SHORT at entry
- SMC — 1D at fill (~$397.68): Not in FVG/OB zone — no fresh demand tag on the entry print · recent ladder = FVG Raid Bear steps from ~$402–406 (Jun)
- SMC — 1W: Not in FVG/OB on the 22 Jun weekly bar — no slow-TF demand pocket on the latest weekly structure
- VWAP overhead: active Resistance ~$429.72 / ~$464.81 above spot — ceiling ladder above $408
- Monthly DD in tester is wide (73%) — slow grid can draw down before mean-reversion
- Past backtest ≠ live fills
Takeaway: below-EMA stretch on 4H–1W and young 3D/4H ALMA support the monthly refill, but weekly ALMA SHORT overheating and absent SMC demand at the fill argue for a grind, not a V-recovery — respect the −10% hard stop.
Base case: follow the 1mo ALMA strategy · 3D/4H young LONG holds · slow reclaim toward $408–430 VWAP/ALMA zone.
Bear case: 1W SHORT ALMA extends · lose 3D band · −10% toward ~$358 hard stop.
BoaBias / Goldfinch_song
Swing trader · bar-close systematic book
800+ TRADES · WR 60% · AVG HOLD 7D · AVG PNL 7% · MAX DD -3.4%
CRYPTO · STOCKS · INDICES · METALS
📈Sharing Ideas · indicators · strategies with honest stats · Educational only NFA
Swing trader · bar-close systematic book
800+ TRADES · WR 60% · AVG HOLD 7D · AVG PNL 7% · MAX DD -3.4%
CRYPTO · STOCKS · INDICES · METALS
📈Sharing Ideas · indicators · strategies with honest stats · Educational only NFA
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.
BoaBias / Goldfinch_song
Swing trader · bar-close systematic book
800+ TRADES · WR 60% · AVG HOLD 7D · AVG PNL 7% · MAX DD -3.4%
CRYPTO · STOCKS · INDICES · METALS
📈Sharing Ideas · indicators · strategies with honest stats · Educational only NFA
Swing trader · bar-close systematic book
800+ TRADES · WR 60% · AVG HOLD 7D · AVG PNL 7% · MAX DD -3.4%
CRYPTO · STOCKS · INDICES · METALS
📈Sharing Ideas · indicators · strategies with honest stats · Educational only NFA
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.