Oil Crash + Softer USD | Ceasefire Sparks Risk-On NASDAQ Rally!
Hey Traders, in today’s trading session we are monitoring NASDAQ for a buying opportunity around the 24,600 zone. NASDAQ was previously trading in a downtrend and has now successfully broken out of that structure. Currently, price is in a correction phase and is approaching the retracement area near the 24,600 support and resistance zone.
From a macro perspective, this setup is supported by a major shift in global risk sentiment after a two-week ceasefire was officially reached between the US and Iran, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This is the best short-term outcome markets could have priced, as it removes the immediate worst-case scenario of a prolonged energy supply shock. As a result, oil prices have sharply dropped below $100 while global equities are rallying on relief flows, creating a highly supportive backdrop for US indices and especially growth-heavy tech stocks.
The NASDAQ is particularly sensitive to this macro pivot because lower oil prices help reduce inflation fears, which in turn eases pressure on bond yields and improves the valuation environment for technology stocks. At the same time, the US dollar has come under downside pressure as safe-haven demand fades, reinforcing the risk-on environment that tends to favor equities for the rest of the week.
Technically, the 24,600 retracement zone becomes a high-probability buy area, combining the breakout retest structure with a powerful bullish macro catalyst. If buyers defend this level, NASDAQ could continue its upside expansion toward fresh weekly highs as the market keeps repricing the ceasefire as a short-term growth-positive event.
The key idea here is simple: peace headlines + lower oil + softer USD = bullish equities, which keeps the buy-the-dip narrative very strong for NASDAQ into the next sessions.
Trade safe,
Joe
From a macro perspective, this setup is supported by a major shift in global risk sentiment after a two-week ceasefire was officially reached between the US and Iran, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This is the best short-term outcome markets could have priced, as it removes the immediate worst-case scenario of a prolonged energy supply shock. As a result, oil prices have sharply dropped below $100 while global equities are rallying on relief flows, creating a highly supportive backdrop for US indices and especially growth-heavy tech stocks.
The NASDAQ is particularly sensitive to this macro pivot because lower oil prices help reduce inflation fears, which in turn eases pressure on bond yields and improves the valuation environment for technology stocks. At the same time, the US dollar has come under downside pressure as safe-haven demand fades, reinforcing the risk-on environment that tends to favor equities for the rest of the week.
Technically, the 24,600 retracement zone becomes a high-probability buy area, combining the breakout retest structure with a powerful bullish macro catalyst. If buyers defend this level, NASDAQ could continue its upside expansion toward fresh weekly highs as the market keeps repricing the ceasefire as a short-term growth-positive event.
The key idea here is simple: peace headlines + lower oil + softer USD = bullish equities, which keeps the buy-the-dip narrative very strong for NASDAQ into the next sessions.
Trade safe,
Joe
Trade ativo
Pullbacks towards the retrace area with the intense news in the middle east!
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Free Telegram Group:
t.me/+0LGgMsgX9TViOGZk
The 1% Traders Club:
t.me/+dMaf68BK5c5hZDA8
t.me/+0LGgMsgX9TViOGZk
The 1% Traders Club:
t.me/+dMaf68BK5c5hZDA8
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.