Nvidia reports its first quarter earnings after the US market close on Wednesday, May 20. The number Wall Street is watching is $78 billion in revenue — a figure that would represent roughly 77% growth year on year. Buy-side whispers run higher, with some desks modelling closer to $80 billion, and guidance for the second quarter is expected somewhere between $85 and $90 billion. A beat alone is already in the price. The question is by how much.
The backdrop going into this report is as supportive as it has been in years. Microsoft has committed $190 billion in capital expenditure for 2026. Amazon is spending roughly $200 billion. Alphabet has signalled that its already elevated spending will accelerate further in 2027. All of that spend flows, in large part, through Nvidia's chips. AMD's data centre revenue soared 57% year on year in its most recent quarter, and Intel beat on revenue — both results pointing to sustained, broad-based demand across the AI chip market.
Nvidia pulled back 4.42% on Friday to $225.32, but the weekend brought fresh catalysts. CEO Jensen Huang joined President Trump's delegation to Beijing for the China summit, sparking optimism about semiconductor sales in China — one of the key risk factors heading into Wednesday. Bank of America raised its price target to $320 over the weekend, and the stock's market cap briefly touched $5.5 trillion. The Friday pullback now looks like a brief pause rather than a change in direction.
The analyst consensus sits at a price target of $269, with 57 Buy ratings, 2 Hold ratings and 1 Sell rating across the coverage list. Analyst sentiment heading into Wednesday's report remains broadly positive, though past ratings are not a guarantee of future performance.
But history offers a warning.
Nvidia stock has declined on the day of the earnings release in three of its last four quarterly reports, even though every single one was a beat. The Q4 report in February delivered a 7% beat on earnings per share, and the stock still fell 6% that day. A market that has already priced in perfection leaves very little room for anything short of it.
The three numbers that will likely decide the stock's direction are gross margin, the second quarter revenue guidance, and the commentary on China. The headline earnings number matters less than what management says about where things go from here.
Two scenarios for Wednesday:
If Nvidia clears the $80 billion whisper number and guides above $87 billion for the second quarter, the stock may extend its recent gains and push toward the analyst consensus around $269. The AI infrastructure story remains intact and investors may have fresh reason to add.
If results meet but do not clearly beat the whisper, or if guidance disappoints, the stock could pull back sharply from current levels toward the $200 area. The pattern of selling strong beats is well established and traders will be watching for it.
Earnings seasons always bring uncertainty. This one, for the world's largest company by market cap, may bring more than most.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendation to trade.70% of retail CFD accounts lose money. You should only invest money you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results
The backdrop going into this report is as supportive as it has been in years. Microsoft has committed $190 billion in capital expenditure for 2026. Amazon is spending roughly $200 billion. Alphabet has signalled that its already elevated spending will accelerate further in 2027. All of that spend flows, in large part, through Nvidia's chips. AMD's data centre revenue soared 57% year on year in its most recent quarter, and Intel beat on revenue — both results pointing to sustained, broad-based demand across the AI chip market.
Nvidia pulled back 4.42% on Friday to $225.32, but the weekend brought fresh catalysts. CEO Jensen Huang joined President Trump's delegation to Beijing for the China summit, sparking optimism about semiconductor sales in China — one of the key risk factors heading into Wednesday. Bank of America raised its price target to $320 over the weekend, and the stock's market cap briefly touched $5.5 trillion. The Friday pullback now looks like a brief pause rather than a change in direction.
The analyst consensus sits at a price target of $269, with 57 Buy ratings, 2 Hold ratings and 1 Sell rating across the coverage list. Analyst sentiment heading into Wednesday's report remains broadly positive, though past ratings are not a guarantee of future performance.
But history offers a warning.
Nvidia stock has declined on the day of the earnings release in three of its last four quarterly reports, even though every single one was a beat. The Q4 report in February delivered a 7% beat on earnings per share, and the stock still fell 6% that day. A market that has already priced in perfection leaves very little room for anything short of it.
The three numbers that will likely decide the stock's direction are gross margin, the second quarter revenue guidance, and the commentary on China. The headline earnings number matters less than what management says about where things go from here.
Two scenarios for Wednesday:
If Nvidia clears the $80 billion whisper number and guides above $87 billion for the second quarter, the stock may extend its recent gains and push toward the analyst consensus around $269. The AI infrastructure story remains intact and investors may have fresh reason to add.
If results meet but do not clearly beat the whisper, or if guidance disappoints, the stock could pull back sharply from current levels toward the $200 area. The pattern of selling strong beats is well established and traders will be watching for it.
Earnings seasons always bring uncertainty. This one, for the world's largest company by market cap, may bring more than most.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendation to trade.70% of retail CFD accounts lose money. You should only invest money you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results
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Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.