The New Zealand dollar (Kiwi) was recently in a very deep retracement from its June 2025 highs, pushing price action toward the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level — a common zone for deep corrective structures. Notably, that decline unfolded in three waves, which is characteristic of counter-trend corrections rather than impulsive downtrends.
This suggests the drop may have been a deep counter-trend movement, potentially ending in an ending diagonal formation around November 2025 — a structure often signaling exhaustion of the prior move. This coincided with a cut in official interest rates by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which lowered the cash rate to 2.25% and signaled the end of its easing cycle. Markets reacted by repricing further cuts to near-zero, and the Kiwi rallied as expectations for further monetary easing were curtailed.
With no immediate room for additional cuts, the Kiwi has shown signs of bottoming. The reversal from the wedge/bracketed pattern that formed into the corrective wave C suggests an impulsive rise, which can be interpreted as wave 1 of a new five-wave bullish cycle. After the recent corrective setback labeled as wave 2, the pair now appears poised to resume its bullish trend within wave 3, which historically carries strong momentum and potential for extended gains — though short-term pullbacks remain possible.
This suggests the drop may have been a deep counter-trend movement, potentially ending in an ending diagonal formation around November 2025 — a structure often signaling exhaustion of the prior move. This coincided with a cut in official interest rates by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which lowered the cash rate to 2.25% and signaled the end of its easing cycle. Markets reacted by repricing further cuts to near-zero, and the Kiwi rallied as expectations for further monetary easing were curtailed.
With no immediate room for additional cuts, the Kiwi has shown signs of bottoming. The reversal from the wedge/bracketed pattern that formed into the corrective wave C suggests an impulsive rise, which can be interpreted as wave 1 of a new five-wave bullish cycle. After the recent corrective setback labeled as wave 2, the pair now appears poised to resume its bullish trend within wave 3, which historically carries strong momentum and potential for extended gains — though short-term pullbacks remain possible.
Join the community for one week, full access. Its free >> @ wavetraders.com/elliott-wave-plans/
Learn Elliott Waves Sale-65%
👉 wavetraders.com/academy/
Newsletter
👉 bit.ly/3FVPVzO
Learn Elliott Waves Sale-65%
👉 wavetraders.com/academy/
Newsletter
👉 bit.ly/3FVPVzO
Publicações relacionadas
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.
Join the community for one week, full access. Its free >> @ wavetraders.com/elliott-wave-plans/
Learn Elliott Waves Sale-65%
👉 wavetraders.com/academy/
Newsletter
👉 bit.ly/3FVPVzO
Learn Elliott Waves Sale-65%
👉 wavetraders.com/academy/
Newsletter
👉 bit.ly/3FVPVzO
Publicações relacionadas
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.