QQQ/NDX - Mid Week Update
Risk Index Update
Current Market State: Short Term Bearish | Long Term Bullish
The Risk Index currently signals that the market may have transitioned into a short to medium term risk off environment. However, the longer term outlook remains firmly bullish.
This proprietary oscillator, developed internally at UA CAPITAL, combines multiple macro parameters into a single sentiment framework. The same complex risk analysis process I manually used for years is now automated through this system, allowing us to read market sentiment objectively and without emotion in real time.
Because the longer term structure remains bullish, we can continue looking for long opportunities from predefined Key Levels. At the same time, the short term bearish shift suggests that supply zones may offer tactical short opportunities if price confirms weakness.
Scenarios / Prediction
Short Scenario
Trigger: A test of the 721 level followed by a daily close below can be used to establish short exposure.
Targets: 712 → 705 → 700 → 687
Invalidation: Daily close above 728
Long Scenarios
Long Scenario 1
Trigger: A test of the 700 level followed by a daily close back above can be used to establish long exposure.
Targets: 705 → 712 → 721 → 728
Invalidation: Daily close below 693.5
Long Scenario 2
Trigger: A test of the 687 level followed by a daily close back above can be used to establish long exposure.
Targets: 693.5 → 700 → 705 → 712 → 721
Invalidation: Daily close below 680
Notice: My previous SPY and QQQ content since 2025 is no longer visible following a TradingView content review. This included my regular weekly outlooks and mid week market updates.
I have been consistently publishing market research and will continue sharing new analysis and updates going forward.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
Risk Index Update
Current Market State: Short Term Bearish | Long Term Bullish
The Risk Index currently signals that the market may have transitioned into a short to medium term risk off environment. However, the longer term outlook remains firmly bullish.
This proprietary oscillator, developed internally at UA CAPITAL, combines multiple macro parameters into a single sentiment framework. The same complex risk analysis process I manually used for years is now automated through this system, allowing us to read market sentiment objectively and without emotion in real time.
Because the longer term structure remains bullish, we can continue looking for long opportunities from predefined Key Levels. At the same time, the short term bearish shift suggests that supply zones may offer tactical short opportunities if price confirms weakness.
Scenarios / Prediction
Short Scenario
Trigger: A test of the 721 level followed by a daily close below can be used to establish short exposure.
Targets: 712 → 705 → 700 → 687
Invalidation: Daily close above 728
Long Scenarios
Long Scenario 1
Trigger: A test of the 700 level followed by a daily close back above can be used to establish long exposure.
Targets: 705 → 712 → 721 → 728
Invalidation: Daily close below 693.5
Long Scenario 2
Trigger: A test of the 687 level followed by a daily close back above can be used to establish long exposure.
Targets: 693.5 → 700 → 705 → 712 → 721
Invalidation: Daily close below 680
Notice: My previous SPY and QQQ content since 2025 is no longer visible following a TradingView content review. This included my regular weekly outlooks and mid week market updates.
I have been consistently publishing market research and will continue sharing new analysis and updates going forward.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
Trade fechado: objetivo atingido
Short Scenario worked very well.I closed all of my put positions around the 705 area shortly after the market opened.
The primary reason for exiting the entire position was that the Risk Index shifted its outlook from short term bearish to neutral. As a result, I managed the trade in line with the live algorithmic Risk Index readings rather than maintaining a fixed directional bias.
NQ futures dropped nearly 3%, where I was carrying short exposure in the futures market. My SPY put positions were closed profitably following a 6.5 point decline of roughly 1%, while my QQQ puts were closed profitably after a 14.5 point decline of approximately 2%.
Overall, it was a highly successful trade with strong risk adjusted returns. The setup played out as expected and the position was actively managed in accordance with the evolving Risk Index signals.
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Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.