RSI and TTM are looking better while price continues to sag. This is a classic bullish divergence in a strong down trend. In other words, selling momentum is slowing down—the bears are running out of aggressive velocity.
But price requires capital inflows to actually turn. Until price breaks above that daily white descending trendline on Gold, momentum is just an early warning system, not a buy signal.
Do Interest Rates Have an Effect?
Opportunity Cost:
Neither Gold nor Silver pays a yield or dividend. When the 10 year Treasury yields climb toward 4.80% and potentially target 5.20%, institutional capital gets guaranteed nominal returns in Treasuries.
The "Real Rate" Clamp:
If nominal bond yields rise faster than inflation expectations, real yields rise. High real yields make holding non yielding metals expensive to hold on balance sheets, triggering fund outflows out of Gold and Silver.
The Double Whammy:
When both
DXY$ and 
TNX break out simultaneously (as we mapped out on previous high timeframe charts), precious metals face a double barreled headwind:
1) A stronger dollar makes metals more expensive for foreign buyers.
2) Higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding metals over cash/bonds.
The Takeaway
IfDXY pushes cleanly above 101 and $TNX breaks out above 4.80% toward 5.20%, precious metals will likely break down through these support zones, regardless of how nice the daily RSI divergence looks.
For the momentum divergence to turn into a real price bottom, we need to see either rates or the dollar hit their overhead macro resistance and turn lower. Until then, the trendline and macro headwinds remain in control.
But price requires capital inflows to actually turn. Until price breaks above that daily white descending trendline on Gold, momentum is just an early warning system, not a buy signal.
Do Interest Rates Have an Effect?
Opportunity Cost:
Neither Gold nor Silver pays a yield or dividend. When the 10 year Treasury yields climb toward 4.80% and potentially target 5.20%, institutional capital gets guaranteed nominal returns in Treasuries.
The "Real Rate" Clamp:
If nominal bond yields rise faster than inflation expectations, real yields rise. High real yields make holding non yielding metals expensive to hold on balance sheets, triggering fund outflows out of Gold and Silver.
The Double Whammy:
When both
DXY$ and TNX break out simultaneously (as we mapped out on previous high timeframe charts), precious metals face a double barreled headwind:1) A stronger dollar makes metals more expensive for foreign buyers.
2) Higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding metals over cash/bonds.
The Takeaway
If
DXY pushes cleanly above 101 and $TNX breaks out above 4.80% toward 5.20%, precious metals will likely break down through these support zones, regardless of how nice the daily RSI divergence looks.For the momentum divergence to turn into a real price bottom, we need to see either rates or the dollar hit their overhead macro resistance and turn lower. Until then, the trendline and macro headwinds remain in control.
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Publicações relacionadas
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.