SpaceX hype and FOMO will probably pump it to $270–$300 up until mid-August. Then we could see the first big sell-off.
Why? Because insiders can’t sell their bags just yet. August 14th is the first official unlock. The real question is whether the market can absorb that selling pressure, or whether we get a mega nuke.
Chances are we nuke before any serious rally toward $1,000.
| Unlock trigger | Date / window | % of locked pool | Shares unlocked | Value at $270 |
| ---------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------: | ---------------------------------------------------: | --------------: | ------------: |
| Q2 earnings unlock | 2nd full trading day after Q2 results | 20% | **911.5M** | **$246.1B** |
| Q2 performance unlock, if +30% condition holds | Same Q2 unlock window | 10% | **455.8M** | **$123.1B** |
| First calendar unlock | **Aug 14–20 risk window** | 7% | **319.0M** | **$86.1B** |
| Second calendar unlock | Sept 3–9 risk window | 7% | **319.0M** | **$86.1B** |
| Third calendar unlock | Sept 18–24 risk window | 7% | **319.0M** | **$86.1B** |
| Fourth calendar unlock | Oct 3–9 risk window | 7% | **319.0M** | **$86.1B** |
| Fifth calendar unlock | Oct 18–24 risk window | 7% | **319.0M** | **$86.1B** |
| Q3 earnings unlock | 2nd full trading day after Q3 results | 28% | **1.276B** | **$344.5B** |
| Final 180-day release / residual | Dec 2–8 window | remaining 7%, assuming all earlier unlocks triggered | **319.0M** | **$86.1B** |
Why? Because insiders can’t sell their bags just yet. August 14th is the first official unlock. The real question is whether the market can absorb that selling pressure, or whether we get a mega nuke.
Chances are we nuke before any serious rally toward $1,000.
| Unlock trigger | Date / window | % of locked pool | Shares unlocked | Value at $270 |
| ---------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------: | ---------------------------------------------------: | --------------: | ------------: |
| Q2 earnings unlock | 2nd full trading day after Q2 results | 20% | **911.5M** | **$246.1B** |
| Q2 performance unlock, if +30% condition holds | Same Q2 unlock window | 10% | **455.8M** | **$123.1B** |
| First calendar unlock | **Aug 14–20 risk window** | 7% | **319.0M** | **$86.1B** |
| Second calendar unlock | Sept 3–9 risk window | 7% | **319.0M** | **$86.1B** |
| Third calendar unlock | Sept 18–24 risk window | 7% | **319.0M** | **$86.1B** |
| Fourth calendar unlock | Oct 3–9 risk window | 7% | **319.0M** | **$86.1B** |
| Fifth calendar unlock | Oct 18–24 risk window | 7% | **319.0M** | **$86.1B** |
| Q3 earnings unlock | 2nd full trading day after Q3 results | 28% | **1.276B** | **$344.5B** |
| Final 180-day release / residual | Dec 2–8 window | remaining 7%, assuming all earlier unlocks triggered | **319.0M** | **$86.1B** |
Aviso legal
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Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não se destinam a ser, e não constituem, conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, comerciais ou de outro tipo fornecidos ou endossados pela TradingView. Leia mais nos Termos de Uso.